Logistic回归及其在概率降水预报中的应用

介绍了一种气象上较少应用的Logistic回归的原理和计算方法，并利用1999年3月1日至2001年5月30日期间，国家气象局T106模式输出的80个物理量场及其导出场资料和福州地区降水的0、1化资料，采用Logistic回归方法，制作春季福州24h降水概率预报，并与事件概率回归方法作了比较。结果表明，该方法对二分类变量有较好的预报效果。     

浅层水中沉底爆炸冲击波相互作用数值模拟

根据试验模型和试验结果，进行了浅层水中沉底爆炸冲击波相互作用数值模拟；研究了水底水面对沉底爆炸冲击波传播与相互作用的影响。结果表明，水底对冲击波压力峰值有较大的削弱作用，水面使冲击作用冲量明显减少，冲击波相互作用的压力叠加或多次冲击作用大大提高了爆炸威力。     

BP自适应网络在数值预报产品的释用

提出了动态指标库的概念，即不同时次采取不同的指标库，同时次在网络自适应时采取不断更新指标库的阈值，采取先建立消空指标库对样本进行消空，提高了降水样本在整体样本中的概率，然后利用BP(Back Propagation)网络作了大连短期的12h和24h降水有、无的预报，设计了网络的自适应算法，并在降水有、无预报中加以应用。结果表明，此方法比没有做消空样本和网络自适应的降水TS评分有所提高，在数值产品解释应用中更具有实际意义。     

Emergent Property in Macromolecular Motion

In this paper, the model of inverse cascade fractal super-blocks along one direction (in the positive or negative) in the 3-dimensional space is developed to describe the self-similar motion in macromolecular system. Microscopically the cohesive and dispersed states of the motion blocks are co- existent states with vastly different probability of occurrence. Experimental results and theoretical analysis show that the microscopic cohesive state energy and dispersed state energy of each motion block are respectively equal to the macroscopic glassy state energy kTg and molten state energy kTm of the system. This singularity unveils topologically the non-integrability, mathematically the anholonomy, and macroscopically the emergent property. This singularity also reveals that the glass, viscoelastic and melt states are three distinct emergent properties of macromolecular motion from a macroscopic viewpoint. The fractal concept of excluded volume is introduced to depict the random motion at various scales in     

Effect of Carboxymethyl Starch as Stabilizer for Increasing the Stability of Warp Sizing Pastes

The influences of carboxymethyl starch used as stabilizer upon the stability of native cornstarch-polyvinyl alcohol blend pastes for warp sizing have been investigated. The effect of the modified starch on the paste stability was evaluated in terms of the initial demixing time and the volume percentage of separated starch. The carboxymethyl starch with a series of different degrees of substitution was prepared in ethanol dispersion by varying the amount of monochloroacetic acid reacted with refined native cornstarch. The paste stability strongly depends on the modification extent and amount of carboxymethyl starch used, and on native starch content in the paste. Increase in the modification extent and/or the amount of the modified starch effectively retards the phase separation and reduces the separation extent of native cornstarch-polyvinyl alcohol blend pastes. Moreover, the mechanism and favorable modification extent of carboxymethyl starch for enhancing paste stability are also investigated and disc     

A UDDI Based Shared Resources Management Mechanism in Virtual Enetrprises .

Service and information resources are two kinds of major shared resources in virtual enterprises, where, service resources include third party‘s service resources and enterprise‘s legacy service resources, and information resources include database resources and file resources. Since service and information resources have distributed, autonomic, remotely bound as well as some other similar characteristics, an implementation mechanism on managing shared resources based on UDDI are presented. XML instances are used to describe resources authorization information, WSDLbased special XML instance represents information resource metadata, and these XML instancesare referenced by tModel for realizing the purpose of managing shared resources metadata based on UDDI.     

Paleotemperature changes ver the past 3000 years in eastern Beijing, China:A reconstraction based on Mg/Sr records in a stalagmite

The Mg/Sr ratio in a stalagmite, which is directly proportional to DMg/Ca, the solid-liquid distribution coefficient of Mg, is proposed as a geochemical thermometer to estimate paleotemperature changes. The paleotemperature changein eastern Beijing over the past 3000 years has been reconstructed by using this thermometer in the stalagmite ZFFS-1 from Jingdong Cave. The records can be divided into two periods: 3000-2000 aBP, cool and wet, the air temperature averaging 9.8℃; and 2000 aBP-present, hot and dry, the air temperature being 1℃ higher than the mean value (11.7℃) of the past 3000 years. During 500-200 aBP, the air temperature was about 1.2℃ lower than that of the present, corresponding to the Little Ice Age in Europe. Like δ18O and δ13C, Mg/Sr (or DMg/Ca) reflects an obviously warming trend of the past 200 years. These results are supported by historic records.     

Impact of the Small Town Construction on Original Inhabitants in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area--A Case Study in Lishu Village, Changling Town, Chongqing Municipality, China

Based on the five-year long dynamic tracking and investigation of the peasant households of the Lishu village, the influences by small town construction on the economy and employment of the original peasant households are discussed. On the one hand, small town construction plays a positive role in adjustment of the industrial structure of the original peasant households and in the transfer of their employment towards non-agricultural industries. On the other hand the economic growth of the original peasant households is not so well sustainable, and is so fluctuating. Moreover,the unbalance of income distribution of the said households has been furthered, and small town construction has made the existing labor surplus of the original peasant households more serious, particularly the women labor surplus.     

Automatic evolutionary modeling by the Lattice-Boltzmann method

The Lattice-Boltzmann method is an effective tool for solving fluid mechanics problems, but there isn’t still a good scheme to determinate some parameters in Boltzmann equations. In this paper, a technique using evolutionary algorithm to automatically model Boltzmann equations is introduced. Numerical simulation shows that the designed scheme is fast and efficient. Biography: Chen Ju-hua ( 1963-), male, Associate professor, research direction: Lattice-Boltzmann method, evolutionary algorithm.     

Combustion energies and standard molar enthalpies of formation for the complexes of the first-row transitional metal chlorides withL-α-histidine

Seven novel solid complexes of the first-row transitional metal with L-α-histidine were synthesized, and their compositions were determined. The constant-volume combustion energies of the complexes were measured by a precision rotation bomb calorimeter. The standard molar enthalpies of combustion and the standard molar enthalpies of formation were calculated. The results indicated that the plots of the standard enthalpies of formation against the atomic number of the metal show a regularity of zigzag.