Apoptosis induced by vitamin A signaling is crucial for connecting the ureters to the bladder

Removal of toxic substances from the blood depends on patent connections between the kidney, ureters and bladder that are established when the ureter is transposed from its original insertion site in the male genital tract to the bladder. This transposition is thought to occur as the trigone forms from the common nephric duct and incorporates into the bladder. Here we re-examine this model in the context of normal and abnormal development. We show that the common nephric duct does not differentiate into the trigone but instead undergoes apoptosis, a crucial step for ureter transposition controlled by vitamin A-induced signals from the primitive bladder. Ureter abnormalities occur in 1-2% of the human population and can cause obstruction and end-stage renal disease. These studies provide an explanation for ureter defects underlying some forms of obstruction in humans and redefine the current model of ureter maturation.     

Volatility forecasting with double Markov switching GARCH models

This paper investigates inference and volatility forecasting using a Markov switching heteroscedastic model with a fat‐tailed error distribution to analyze asymmetric effects on both the conditional mean and conditional volatility of financial time series. The motivation for extending the Markov switching GARCH model, previously developed to capture mean asymmetry, is that the switching variable, assumed to be a first‐order Markov process, is unobserved. The proposed model extends this work to incorporate Markov switching in the mean and variance simultaneously. Parameter estimation and inference are performed in a Bayesian framework via a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme. We compare competing models using Bayesian forecasting in a comparative value‐at‐risk study. The proposed methods are illustrated using both simulations and eight international stock market return series. The results generally favor the proposed double Markov switching GARCH model with an exogenous variable. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Meta-analysis identifies multiple loci associated with kidney function-related traits in east Asian populations

Chronic kidney disease (CKD), impairment of kidney function, is a serious public health problem, and the assessment of genetic factors influencing kidney function has substantial clinical relevance. Here, we report a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for kidney function-related traits, including 71,149 east Asian individuals from 18 studies in 11 population-, hospital- or family-based cohorts, conducted as part of the Asian Genetic Epidemiology Network (AGEN). Our meta-analysis identified 17 loci newly associated with kidney function-related traits, including the concentrations of blood urea nitrogen, uric acid and serum creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate based on serum creatinine levels (eGFRcrea) (P < 5.0 × 10(-8)). We further examined these loci with in silico replication in individuals of European ancestry from the KidneyGen, CKDGen and GUGC consortia, including a combined total of ～110,347 individuals. We identify pleiotropic associations among these loci with kidney function-related traits and risk of CKD. These findings provide new insights into the genetics of kidney function.     

Distal ureter morphogenesis depends on epithelial cell remodeling mediated by vitamin A and Ret

Almost 1% of human infants are born with urogenital abnormalities, many of which are linked to irregular connections between the distal ureters and the bladder. During development, ureters migrate by an unknown mechanism from their initial integration site in the Wolffian ducts up to the base of the bladder in a process that we call ureter maturation. Rara(-/-) Rarb2(-/-) mice display impaired vitamin A signaling and develop syndromic urogenital malformations similar to those that occur in humans, including renal hypoplasia, hydronephrosis and mega-ureter, abnormalities also seen in mice with mutations in the proto-oncogene Ret. Here we show that ureter maturation depends on formation of the 'trigonal wedge', a newly identified epithelial outgrowth from the base of the Wolffian ducts, and that the distal ureter abnormalities seen in Rara(-/-) Rarb2(-/-) and Ret(-/-) mutant mice are probably caused by a failure of this process. Our studies indicate that formation of the trigonal wedge may be essential for correct insertion of the distal ureters into the bladder, and that these events are mediated by the vitamin A and Ret signaling pathways.     

Bayesian Assessment of Dynamic Quantile Forecasts

Bayesian methods for assessing the accuracy of dynamic financial value‐at‐risk (VaR) forecasts have not been considered in the literature. Such methods are proposed in this paper. Specifically, Bayes factor analogues of popular frequentist tests for independence of violations from, and for correct coverage of a time series of, dynamic quantile forecasts are developed. To evaluate the relevant marginal likelihoods, analytic integration methods are utilized when possible; otherwise multivariate adaptive quadrature methods are employed to estimate the required quantities. The usual Bayesian interval estimate for a proportion is also examined in this context. The size and power properties of the proposed methods are examined via a simulation study, illustrating favourable comparisons both overall and with their frequentist counterparts. An empirical study employs the proposed methods, in comparison with standard tests, to assess the adequacy of a range of forecasting models for VaR in several financial market data series. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

聚苯乙烯负载的奎宁环催化剂的合成及其在Morita-Baylis-Hillman反应中的应用

通过3-(4-乙烯基苄氧基)-1-氮杂-双环[2,2,2]辛烷和苯乙烯共聚合制备聚(苯乙烯-共-3-(4-乙烯基苄氧基)-1-氮杂-双环[2,2,2]辛烷),并将其作为非均相催化剂应用于分子内和分子间的Morita-Baylis-Hillman及氮杂-Morita-Baylis-Hillman反应中,在所有这些反应中,产物的产率都可达到中等水平。     

A Bayesian threshold nonlinearity test for financial time series

We propose in this paper a threshold nonlinearity test for financial time series. Our approach adopts reversible‐jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to calculate the posterior probabilities of two competitive models, namely GARCH and threshold GARCH models. Posterior evidence favouring the threshold GARCH model indicates threshold nonlinearity or volatility asymmetry. Simulation experiments demonstrate that our method works very well in distinguishing GARCH and threshold GARCH models. Sensitivity analysis shows that our method is robust to misspecification in error distribution. In the application to 10 market indexes, clear evidence of threshold nonlinearity is discovered and thus supporting volatility asymmetry. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.