Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market

In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of Full Automatic External Welding Machine for Annular Welds of Pipeline

To meet the demands of rapid development of pipeline constructions in China, a complete set of full automatic external welding machine for annular welds of pipeline and welding procedure have been developed thereof. The system has been applied in the “West-East Pipeline Project” and its performance is proven. With this welding machine the welding parameters can be either preset before or adjusted in real time during the welding process, which avoids the blemishes of same type domestic and international products. Thus it is best propitious to in-situ construction conditions and workers‘ technical level in China. In this article the development of mechanical and control systems of this product is introduced and typical welding procedure parameters are provided.     

DETERMINATION OF KRAFT LIGNIN CONCENTRATIONS BY FTIR

A fast and accurate method based on FTIR is developed for determining the lignin content and its characteristic bands in alkali solutions. The work consisted of two main parts: 1) establishing a predictive model and 2) determination of the accuracy of the model. The model was derived by applying the partial least squares algorithm for multivariate analyses to a set of spectrum data obtained from selected IR absorption regions in the range of 1600 - 900 cm-1. The model was tested with spent liquors obtained from commercial pulp mills.The accuracy of the predictive model is extremely high suitable for commercial applications,particularly for monitoring the dynamic response of modern kraft pulping processes.     

Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Timed bromocriptine administration reduces body fat stores in obese subjects and hyperglycemia in type II diabetics.

Obese postmenopausal female volunteers were given timed daily oral dosages of bromocriptine, and tested for reduction of body fat stores. This dopamine agonist has been shown to reset circadian rhythms that are altered in obese animals and to reduce body fat levels in several animal models. The participants were instructed not to alter their existing exercise and eating behavior during treatment. Skinfold measurements were taken on 33 subjects as indices of body fat. The measurements (e.g., suprailiac) were reduced after six weeks by about 25%, which represents a reduction of 11.7% of the total body fat. These dramatic decreases in body fat, which are equivalent to that produced by severe caloric restriction, were accompanied by more modest reductions of body weight (2.5%), indicating a possible conservation of protein that is usually lost as a consequence of such caloric restriction. The effects of bromocriptine treatment on body fat and hyperglycemia were also examined in non-insulin dependent diabetics being treated with oral hypoglycemics (7 subjects) or insulin (7 subjects). Total body fat was reduced by 10.7% and 5.1% in diabetics on oral hypoglycemics and insulin, respectively, without any significant reductions in body weight. Hyperglycemia was reduced in most of the 15 diabetic subjects treated leading to euglycemia and even cessation of hypoglycemic drugs in 3 of the 7 subjects during 4-8 weeks of bromocriptine treatment. These findings support the hypothesis that obesity and type II diabetes may be treated effectively with bromocriptine when administered at the proper times and dosages.     

Quantal transmitter secretion from myocytes loaded with acetylcholine.

It is well known that transmitter secretion requires specialized secretory organelles, the synaptic vesicles, for the packaging, storage and exocytotic release of the transmitter. Here we report that when acetylcholine (ACh) is loaded into an isolated Xenopus myocyte, there is spontaneous quantal release of ACh from the myocyte which results in activation of its own surface ACh channels and the appearance of membrane currents resembling miniature endplate currents. This myocyte secretion probably reflects Ca(2+)-regulated exocytosis of ACh-filled cytoplasmic compartments. Furthermore, step depolarization of the myocyte membrane triggers evoked ACh release from the myocyte with a weak excitation-secretion coupling. These findings suggest that quantal transmitter secretion does not require secretory pathways unique to neurons and that the essence of presynaptic differentiation may reside in the provision of transmitter supply and modification of the preexisting secretion pathway.     

Exponential smoothing: Behavior of the ex-post sum of squares near 0 and 1

When using simple exponential smoothing on a given time series the nature of the relationship between the optimal smoothing constant and the autocorrelation structure of the series remains an unresolved question. Although numerical search routines can easily be used to find optimal values of the smoothing constant, they offer little insight into the nature of the relationship between the estimated smoothing constant and the structure of the underlying time series. We suggest that renewed investigations of the ex-post sum of squares function may prove helpful in this pursuit. Results are presented that illustrate how the optimal smoothing constant depends upon the value used to initialize the smoothing and upon the sample autocorrelation coefficients of the observed series. These results are based on a new formula for the derivative of the ex-post sum of squares function. In particular, the derivative is examined near 0 and 1, where great simplifications occur in its form, thereby facilitating investigations near these points. A necessary and sufficient condition is stated for when the ex-post sum of squares must have a positive derivative at 0 and the autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series are shown to affect the sign of the derivative near 1. Based on these results, a general algorithm is presented as an alternative to grid search routines for minimizing the ex-post sum of squares.     

变速齿轮传动系统最佳轴向结构布局智能设计的推理机制

本文通过对变速齿轮传动系统轴向结构布局设计规律的研究,提出了一种适合于该类问题的知识表达方式,将改进后的带有启发函数的最佳优先搜索方法引入到该问题的求解中,使得含有多重搜索空间以及带有一定约束的设计问题统一在同一搜索策略下。根据本文提出的方法,用PROLOG语言建造的推理机,通过对实际问题的考证,证明该方法在解决传动结构自动设计上是行之有效的,并且在推理机制上成功地体现了设计过程中反复设计与优化设计的功能特征.