Model specification and forecasting foreign exchange rates with vector autoregressions

This study examines the forecasting accuracy of alternative vector autoregressive models each in a seven‐variable system that comprises in turn of daily, weekly and monthly foreign exchange (FX) spot rates. The vector autoregressions (VARs) are in non‐stationary, stationary and error‐correction forms and are estimated using OLS. The imposition of Bayesian priors in the OLS estimations also allowed us to obtain another set of results. We find that there is some tendency for the Bayesian estimation method to generate superior forecast measures relatively to the OLS method. This result holds whether or not the data sets contain outliers. Also, the best forecasts under the non‐stationary specification outperformed those of the stationary and error‐correction specifications, particularly at long forecast horizons, while the best forecasts under the stationary and error‐correction specifications are generally similar. The findings for the OLS forecasts are consistent with recent simulation results. The predictive ability of the VARs is very weak. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Biomechanics: robotic whiskers used to sense features

Whiskers mimicking those of seals or rats might be useful for underwater tracking or tactile exploration. Several species of terrestrial and marine mammals with whiskers (vibrissae) use them to sense and navigate in their environment--for example, rats use their whiskers to discern the features of objects, and seals rely on theirs to track the hydrodynamic trails of their prey. Here we show that the bending moment--sometimes referred to as torque--at the whisker base can be used to generate three-dimensional spatial representations of the environment, and we use this principle to construct robotic whisker arrays that extract precise information about object shape and fluid flow. Our results will contribute to the development of versatile tactile-sensing systems for robotic applications, and demonstrate the value of hardware models in understanding how sensing mechanisms and movement control strategies are interlocked.     

Drosophila pink1 is required for mitochondrial function and interacts genetically with parkin

Parkinson's disease is the second most common neurodegenerative disorder and is characterized by the degeneration of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra. Mitochondrial dysfunction has been implicated as an important trigger for Parkinson's disease-like pathogenesis because exposure to environmental mitochondrial toxins leads to Parkinson's disease-like pathology. Recently, multiple genes mediating familial forms of Parkinson's disease have been identified, including PTEN-induced kinase 1 (PINK1; PARK6) and parkin (PARK2), which are also associated with sporadic forms of Parkinson's disease. PINK1 encodes a putative serine/threonine kinase with a mitochondrial targeting sequence. So far, no in vivo studies have been reported for pink1 in any model system. Here we show that removal of Drosophila PINK1 homologue (CG4523; hereafter called pink1) function results in male sterility, apoptotic muscle degeneration, defects in mitochondrial morphology and increased sensitivity to multiple stresses including oxidative stress. Pink1 localizes to mitochondria, and mitochondrial cristae are fragmented in pink1 mutants. Expression of human PINK1 in the Drosophila testes restores male fertility and normal mitochondrial morphology in a portion of pink1 mutants, demonstrating functional conservation between human and Drosophila Pink1. Loss of Drosophila parkin shows phenotypes similar to loss of pink1 function. Notably, overexpression of parkin rescues the male sterility and mitochondrial morphology defects of pink1 mutants, whereas double mutants removing both pink1 and parkin function show muscle phenotypes identical to those observed in either mutant alone. These observations suggest that pink1 and parkin function, at least in part, in the same pathway, with pink1 functioning upstream of parkin. The role of the pink1-parkin pathway in regulating mitochondrial function underscores the importance of mitochondrial dysfunction as a central mechanism of Parkinson's disease pathogenesis.     

100-metre-diameter moonlets in Saturn's A ring from observations of 'propeller' structures

Saturn's main rings are composed predominantly of water-ice particles ranging between about 1 centimetre and 10 metres in radius. Above this size range, the number of particles drops sharply, according to the interpretation of spacecraft and stellar occultations. Other than the gap moons Pan and Daphnis (the provisional name of S/2005 S1), which have sizes of several kilometres, no individual bodies in the rings have been directly observed, and the population of ring particles larger than ten metres has been essentially unknown. Here we report the observation of four longitudinal double-streaks in an otherwise bland part of the mid-A ring. We infer that these 'propeller'-shaped perturbations arise from the effects of embedded moonlets approximately 40 to 120 m in diameter. Direct observation of this phenomenon validates models of proto-planetary disks in which similar processes are posited. A population of moonlets, as implied by the size distribution that we find, could help explain gaps in the more tenuous regions of the Cassini division and the C ring. The existence of such large embedded moonlets is most naturally compatible with a ring originating in the break-up of a larger body, but accretion from a circumplanetary disk is also plausible if subsequent growth onto large particles occurs after the primary accretion phase has concluded.     

The structural basis for membrane binding and pore formation by lymphocyte perforin

Natural killer cells and cytotoxic T lymphocytes accomplish the critically important function of killing virus-infected and neoplastic cells. They do this by releasing the pore-forming protein perforin and granzyme proteases from cytoplasmic granules into the cleft formed between the abutting killer and target cell membranes. Perforin, a 67-kilodalton multidomain protein, oligomerizes to form pores that deliver the pro-apoptopic granzymes into the cytosol of the target cell. The importance of perforin is highlighted by the fatal consequences of congenital perforin deficiency, with more than 50 different perforin mutations linked to familial haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (type 2 FHL). Here we elucidate the mechanism of perforin pore formation by determining the X-ray crystal structure of monomeric murine perforin, together with a cryo-electron microscopy reconstruction of the entire perforin pore. Perforin is a thin 'key-shaped' molecule, comprising an amino-terminal membrane attack complex perforin-like (MACPF)/cholesterol dependent cytolysin (CDC) domain followed by an epidermal growth factor (EGF) domain that, together with the extreme carboxy-terminal sequence, forms a central shelf-like structure. A C-terminal C2 domain mediates initial, Ca(2+)-dependent membrane binding. Most unexpectedly, however, electron microscopy reveals that the orientation of the perforin MACPF domain in the pore is inside-out relative to the subunit arrangement in CDCs. These data reveal remarkable flexibility in the mechanism of action of the conserved MACPF/CDC fold and provide new insights into how related immune defence molecules such as complement proteins assemble into pores.