Fitting an extended INDSCAL model to three-way proximity data

The INDSCAL individual differences scaling model is extended by assuming dimensions specific to each stimulus or other object, as well as dimensions common to all stimuli or objects. An alternating maximum likelihood procedure is used to seek maximum likelihood estimates of all parameters of this EXSCAL (Extended INDSCAL) model, including parameters of monotone splines assumed in a quasi-nonmetric approach. The rationale for and numerical details of this approach are described and discussed, and the resulting EXSCAL method is illustrated on some data on perception of musical timbres.     

Polygenic susceptibility to breast cancer and implications for prevention

The knowledge of human genetic variation that will come from the human genome sequence makes feasible a polygenic approach to disease prevention, in which it will be possible to identify individuals as susceptible by their genotype profile and to prevent disease by targeting interventions to those at risk. There is doubt, however, regarding the magnitude of these genetic effects and thus the potential to apply them to either individuals or populations. We have therefore examined the potential for prediction of risk based on common genetic variation using data from a population-based series of individuals with breast cancer. The data are compatible with a log-normal distribution of genetic risk in the population that is sufficiently wide to provide useful discrimination of high- and low-risk groups. Assuming all of the susceptibility genes could be identified, the half of the population at highest risk would account for 88% of all affected individuals. By contrast, if currently identified risk factors for breast cancer were used to stratify the population, the half of the population at highest risk would account for only 62% of all cases. These results suggest that the construction and use of genetic-risk profiles may provide significant improvements in the efficacy of population-based programs of intervention for cancers and other diseases.     

Condition models for wintering Northern Pintails in the Southern High Plains

Three condition models for wintering Northern Pintails ( Anas acuta ) were tested for their ability to predict fat mass, logarithm of fat mass, or a condition index (CI) incorporating fat mass. Equations generated to predict fat mass and the logarithm of fat mass accounted for more than 69% of the variation in these dependent variables. Log transformations of body mass, wing length, and total length explained at least 60% of the variation in CI. All models performed better on an independent data set. Mean prediction error was minimal (≤8% of measured variables) and negative for all models. Regression models apply to live and dead pintails and thus represent tools that have utility in a wide variety of studies on pintail condition.     

Dynamic response of Permian brachiopod communities to long-term environmental change

The fossil record preserves numerous natural experiments that can shed light on the response of ecological communities to environmental change. However, directly observing the community dynamics of extinct organisms is not possible. As an alternative, neutral ecological models suggest that species abundance distributions reflect dynamical processes like migration, competition, recruitment, and extinction. Live-dead comparisons suggest that such distributions can be faithfully preserved in the rock record. Here we use a maximum-likelihood approach to show that brachiopod (lamp shell) abundance distributions from four temporally distinct ecological landscapes from the Glass Mountains, Texas (of the Permian period), exhibit significant differences. Further, all four are better fitted by zero-sum multinomial distributions, characteristic of Hubbell's neutral model, than by log-normal distributions, as predicted by the traditional ecological null hypothesis. Using the neutral model as a guide, we suggest that sea level fluctuations spanning about 10 Myr altered the degrees of isolation and exchange among local communities within these ecological landscapes. Neither these long-term environmental changes nor higher-frequency sea level fluctuations resulted in wholesale extinction or major innovation within evolutionary lineages.     

Modeling Organizational Systems: Banathy's Three Lenses Revisited

The inherent complexity of organizational systems defies full understanding by inquirers. This condition often causes organizational inquirers to become mired in convoluted deliberations, unable to attain the consensus among the inquiring community that is needed to advance the research forward to a meaningful conclusion. Consequently, many practitioners and researchers employ models of organizations to aid in simplifying the system's complexity and to reach shared agreement. Because no single model can fully capture the complexity of an organization, Dr. Bela H. Banathy therefore proposed using three types of interrelated models to give a multidimensional view of a human system under study. Since Banathy first introduced his three lenses approach, the concept has been employed in many educational and organizational settings. This article examines the author's experience using Banathy's three lenses and integrates their usage with some other popular modeling techniques, providing a comprehensive view of how Banathy's three lenses can be effectively employed in contemporary organizational settings.     

Pollen flight forecasting in Germany and in Europe

Every tenth person in Central Europe is a pollinosis patient. The time of ripening and release of pollen, as well as pollen flight, all depend on the weather. Because each year is different from every other, mean values from pollen calendars do not provide any practical help for allergy-sufferers. For this reason, in many European countries, measuring networks have been established during the last 10 years as a basis for forecasting the prevalence of airborne pollen for the following 2–3 days, in connection with the weather forecast. Cooperation and communication also exist on a European level, and a European Pollen Database has been established.     

Effect of the mast cell disruptor B.W. 48/80 on dietary atherosclerosis in the male rabbit

Zusammenfassung Mit Cholesterin ernährte Kaninchen, denen gleichzeitig Compound 48/80 injiziert wurde, wiesen gegenüber nur mit Cholesterinzusatz gefütterten Tieren geringere Atheromatose des Aortenbogens auf. Compound 48/80 rief auch eine Verminderung des Serumcholesteringehaltes hervor. Unter dem Einfluss von Compound 48/80 schien ein beschleunigter Abbau der atheromatösen Plaques einzusetzen bevor noch eine Verminderung des Serumcholesterins auftrat. Es wird vermutet, dass der Schutz von Compound 48/80 gegen die durch Diät erzeugte Atheromatose des Kaninchens auf einer Veränderung des arteriellen Glykosaminglykans beruht.