Prediction from the One‐Way Error Components Model with AR(1) Disturbances

In this paper we extend the works of Baillie and Baltagi (1999, in Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variables Models, Hsiao C et al. (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; 255–267) and generalize certain results from the Baltagi and Li (1992, Journal of Forecasting 11 : 561–567) paper accounting for AR(1) errors in the disturbance term. In particular, we derive six predictors for the one‐way error components model, as well as their associated asymptotic mean squared error of multi‐step prediction in the presence of AR(1) errors in the disturbance term. In addition, we also provide both theoretical and simulation evidence as to the relative efficiency of our alternative predictors. The adequacy of the prediction AMSE formula is also investigated by the use of Monte Carlo methods and indicates that the ordinary optimal predictor performs well for various accuracy criteria. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diversity and dispersal history of the talitrids (Crustacea: Amphipoda: Talitridae) of Bermuda

Five taxa of talitrid amphipods were found in the archipelago of Bermuda, of which three were recorded there for the first time. Four of these are supralittoral wrack generalists: Platorchestia monodi BOLD:AAB3402, (a unique Molecular Operational Taxonomic Unit according to the Barcode Index Number system), a related species recognized by molecular methods, Platorchestia platensis BOLD:AAA2949, Mexorchestia carpenteri carpenteri BOLD:AAC1491 and Tethorchestia antillensis; and one a terrestrial leaf-litter generalist: Talitroides alluaudi. A key is provided to discriminate between the formally described talitrids of Bermuda. Dispersal mechanisms from the American continent to Bermuda were considered for all taxa based on species distributions along the North American Atlantic coast and also investigated by molecular methods, using genetic population differentiation and haplotype network analysis based on the barcode region of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene. For P. monodi BOLD:AAB3402 the genetic results suggest that some dispersal events occurred before human colonization of Bermuda but are equivocal about the source population and therefore the direction of dispersal. Some very recent synanthropic dispersal is possible with this species. For the other two species studied genetically, P. platensis BOLD:AAA2949 and M. c. carpenteri BOLD:AAC1491, the small population samples analysed support dispersal to Bermuda from the American mainland, before human occupation of Bermuda, although the available sample size was limited for these species. The available limited direct, non-genetic evidence supports synanthropic transport for Talitroides alluaudi. Platorchestia monodi BOLD:AAB3402 is found in the same wrack habitat as P. platensis BOLD:AAA2949 on Bermuda, apparently without interbreeding. No evidence was found that driftwood specialist talitrids had become established in Bermuda.     

Seasonal patterns of arthropod diversity and abundance on big sagebrush, Artemisia tridentata

The sagebrush biotype is the largest in the western United States. This vast sagebrush community is thought to harbor equally vast and diverse arthropod communities, but these remain little explored. Our objective was to examine the diversity, abundance, and seasonal phenology of arthropod taxa found on the dominant shrub of the sagebrush ecosystem, big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ). We wanted to improve understanding of this little-studied arthropod assemblage that may play significant roles in the dynamics of sagebrush populations and the sagebrush ecosystem. We sampled free-living and gall-forming arthropods from a stratified random sample of sagebrush plants at the Barton Road Ecological Research Area, Idaho, resulting in a sample of over 8000 individuals and 232 morphospecies. Species richness and abundance declined from May to August, and abundance of most taxa similarly declined over the summer. A few taxa, including Acari (mites), were notably more abundant in August. Fluid feeders were the most diverse and abundant free-living feeding guild during all months and comprised up to 79% of morphospecies. The gall formers included 4713 individuals of 12 species of gall flies ( Rhopalomyia spp.), primarily (97%) R. ampullaria. Abundance of galls increased from small to large (presumably young to old) plants. Overall, A. tridentata was host to a high diversity of arthropods, some of which have potential to cause or mitigate significant damage to their host plant. Arthropods seem likely to have the greatest impact on sagebrush early in the growing season, when they are most diverse and abundant. Documentation of the full diversity of arthropods associated with sagebrush required samples taken throughout the growing season, but a single sample early in the growing season captured a high proportion of taxa.     

Salvage logging and replanting reduce understory cover and richness compared to unsalvaged unplanted sites at Mount St. Helens, Washington

The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens killed trees in a broad 600-km2 swath north of the crater. Over most of the blast zone, dead trees were salvage logged and Abies procera was planted, except in areas within the Mount St. Helens National Volcanic Monument. We compared salvage-replanted sites and unsalvaged sites in 1 area of the blast zone where the sites were adjacent by using twenty-five 200-m 2 plots for each treatment. Salvaged-replanted plots had significantly lower herb and shrub cover, richness, diversity, litter depth, downed woody debris, nitrate, and phosphate. Salvaged-replanted sites also had significantly more stumps, bare area, and moss cover than unsalvaged plots. Soil organic matter and nonnative species cover did not differ. Nonnative species were not important components of any plots. Nitrate, total nitrogen, organic matter, and litter were correlated with the major patterns of species distribution in a canonical correspondence analysis of the salvaged-replanted plots. In the unsalvaged plots, slope, downed woody debris, and elevation were correlated with the major patterns of species distribution.