Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise

Changes in the climate system's energy budget are predominantly revealed in ocean temperatures and the associated thermal expansion contribution to sea-level rise. Climate models, however, do not reproduce the large decadal variability in globally averaged ocean heat content inferred from the sparse observational database, even when volcanic and other variable climate forcings are included. The sum of the observed contributions has also not adequately explained the overall multi-decadal rise. Here we report improved estimates of near-global ocean heat content and thermal expansion for the upper 300 m and 700 m of the ocean for 1950-2003, using statistical techniques that allow for sparse data coverage and applying recent corrections to reduce systematic biases in the most common ocean temperature observations. Our ocean warming and thermal expansion trends for 1961-2003 are about 50 per cent larger than earlier estimates but about 40 per cent smaller for 1993-2003, which is consistent with the recognition that previously estimated rates for the 1990s had a positive bias as a result of instrumental errors. On average, the decadal variability of the climate models with volcanic forcing now agrees approximately with the observations, but the modelled multi-decadal trends are smaller than observed. We add our observational estimate of upper-ocean thermal expansion to other contributions to sea-level rise and find that the sum of contributions from 1961 to 2003 is about 1.5 +/- 0.4 mm yr(-1), in good agreement with our updated estimate of near-global mean sea-level rise (using techniques established in earlier studies) of 1.6 +/- 0.2 mm yr(-1).     

Forecasting the economic recession in the U.K. 1979-1982: A comparison of model-based ex ante Forecasts

This paper compares the forecasts of recession and recovery made by five non-government U.K. teams modelling the economy (Cambridge Econometrics, the London Business School, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the Cambridge Economic Policy Group and the Liverpool Research Group). The paper concentrates on annual ex ante projections as published over the period 1978-1982, i.e. forecasts made, before the event, of the onset, length, depth and character of the economic recession in the U.K. which began in 1979. The comparison is in terms of year by year changes in production, unemployment, prices and other variables. It concludes that no group was systematically better or worse than other groups (confirming U.S. experience) and that the groups tended to perform better in their chosen areas of specialization, e.g. medium-term groups did better at forecasting the medium-term outcome.     

Developmental plasticity and human health

Many plants and animals are capable of developing in a variety of ways, forming characteristics that are well adapted to the environments in which they are likely to live. In adverse circumstances, for example, small size and slow metabolism can facilitate survival, whereas larger size and more rapid metabolism have advantages for reproductive success when resources are more abundant. Often these characteristics are induced in early life or are even set by cues to which their parents or grandparents were exposed. Individuals developmentally adapted to one environment may, however, be at risk when exposed to another when they are older. The biological evidence may be relevant to the understanding of human development and susceptibility to disease. As the nutritional state of many human mothers has improved around the world, the characteristics of their offspring--such as body size and metabolism--have also changed. Responsiveness to their mothers' condition before birth may generally prepare individuals so that they are best suited to the environment forecast by cues available in early life. Paradoxically, however, rapid improvements in nutrition and other environmental conditions may have damaging effects on the health of those people whose parents and grandparents lived in impoverished conditions. A fuller understanding of patterns of human plasticity in response to early nutrition and other environmental factors will have implications for the administration of public health.     

Mutations in RNF135, a gene within the NF1 microdeletion region, cause phenotypic abnormalities including overgrowth

17q11 microdeletions that encompass NF1 cause 5%-10% of cases of neurofibromatosis type 1, and individuals with microdeletions are typically taller than individuals with intragenic NF1 mutations, suggesting that deletion of a neighboring gene might promote human growth. We identified mutations in RNF135, which is within the NF1 microdeletion region, in six families characterized by overgrowth, learning disability, dysmorphic features and variable additional features. These data identify RNF135 as causative of a new overgrowth syndrome and demonstrate that RNF135 haploinsufficiency contributes to the phenotype of NF1 microdeletion cases.     

NMDA-receptor activation increases cytoplasmic calcium concentration in cultured spinal cord neurones

Excitatory amino acids act via receptor subtypes in the mammalian central nervous system (CNS). The receptor selectively activated by N-methyl-D-aspartic acid (NMDA) has been best characterized using voltage-clamp and single-channel recording; the results suggest that NMDA receptors gate channels that are permeable to Na+, K+ and other monovalent cations. Various experiments suggest that Ca2+ flux is also associated with the activation of excitatory amino-acid receptors on vertebrate neurones. Whether Ca2+ enters through voltage-dependent Ca2+ channels or through excitatory amino-acid-activated channels of one or more subtype is unclear. Mg2+ can be used to distinguish NMDA-receptor-activated channels from voltage-dependent Ca2+ channels, because at micromolar concentrations Mg2+ has little effect on voltage-dependent Ca2+ channels while it enters and blocks NMDA receptor channels. Marked differences in the potency of other divalent cations acting as Ca2+ channel blockers compared with their action as NMDA antagonists also distinguish the NMDA channel from voltage-sensitive Ca2+ channels. However, we now directly demonstrate that excitatory amino acids acting at NMDA receptors on spinal cord neurones increase the intracellular Ca2+ activity, measured using the indicator dye arsenazo III, and that this is the result of Ca2+ influx through NMDA receptor channels. Kainic acid (KA), which acts at another subtype of excitatory amino-acid receptor, was much less effective in triggering increases in intracellular free Ca2+.