Dynamic density forecasts for multivariate asset returns

We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time‐varying) non‐central co‐moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the method of moments for a carefully selected set of co‐moments. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the proposed model with a range of other models widely used in the literature. Employing a recently proposed as well as standard techniques to evaluate multivariate forecasts, we conclude that the augmented joint density provides highly accurate forecasts of the ‘negative tail’ of the joint distribution. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cool Indonesian throughflow as a consequence of restricted surface layer flow

Approximately 10 million m3 x s(-1) of water flow from the Pacific Ocean into the Indian Ocean through the Indonesian seas. Within the Makassar Strait, the primary pathway of the flow, the Indonesian throughflow is far cooler than estimated earlier, as pointed out recently on the basis of ocean current and temperature measurements. Here we analyse ocean current and stratification data along with satellite-derived wind measurements, and find that during the boreal winter monsoon, the wind drives buoyant, low-salinity Java Sea surface water into the southern Makassar Strait, creating a northward pressure gradient in the surface layer of the strait. This surface layer 'freshwater plug' inhibits the warm surface water from the Pacific Ocean from flowing southward into the Indian Ocean, leading to a cooler Indian Ocean sea surface, which in turn may weaken the Asian monsoon. The summer wind reversal eliminates the obstructing pressure gradient, by transferring more-saline Banda Sea surface water into the southern Makassar Strait. The coupling of the southeast Asian freshwater budget to the Pacific and Indian Ocean surface temperatures by the proposed mechanism may represent an important negative feedback within the climate system.     

To combine or not to combine? issues of combining forecasts

This paper addresses issues such as: Does it always pay to combine individual forecasts of a variable? Should one combine an unbiased forecast with one that is heavily biased? Should one use optimal weights as suggested by Bates and Granger over twenty years ago? A simple model which accounts for the main features of individual forecasts is put forward. Bayesian analysis of the model using noninformative and informative prior probability densities is provided which extends and generalizes results obtained by Winkler (1981) and compared with non-Bayesian methods of combining forecasts relying explicitly on a statistical model for the individual forecasts. It is shown that in some instances it is sensible to use a simple average of individual forecasts instead of using Bates and Granger type weights. Finally, model uncertainty is considered and the issue of combining different models for individual forecasts is addressed.     

On the biomechanical function of the liver capsule

Summary We have carried out histomechanical studies on the human and bovine liver capsule under tension loading. Results: Nonlinear force-time curve under extension with constant speed, initial upper and lower summit decrease of the dynamic relaxation curve, amplitude diminution phenomenon of the dynamic relaxation in the lower nonlinear part of the extension-time curve, dynamic (cyclic) force recovery.Acknowledgments. We are grateful for helpful suggestions to Dr P. Freyer. The authors are indebted to Mrs C. Beckers and Mr W. Graulich — The experimental study was supported by the DFG (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft).     

Guinea-pig adipose tissue responsiveness to catecholamines

Zusammenfassung Es wurde festgestellt, dass Meerschweinchen-Fettgewebe auf Catecholamine weniger reagierte als Rattengewebe. War die Inkubation zerkleinerten Gewebes mit Aminen langfristig, so zeigte das Meerschweinchen-Fettgewebe eine lipolytische Aktivität.     

A synthetic multicellular system for programmed pattern formation

Pattern formation is a hallmark of coordinated cell behaviour in both single and multicellular organisms. It typically involves cell-cell communication and intracellular signal processing. Here we show a synthetic multicellular system in which genetically engineered 'receiver' cells are programmed to form ring-like patterns of differentiation based on chemical gradients of an acyl-homoserine lactone (AHL) signal that is synthesized by 'sender' cells. In receiver cells, 'band-detect' gene networks respond to user-defined ranges of AHL concentrations. By fusing different fluorescent proteins as outputs of network variants, an initially undifferentiated 'lawn' of receivers is engineered to form a bullseye pattern around a sender colony. Other patterns, such as ellipses and clovers, are achieved by placing senders in different configurations. Experimental and theoretical analyses reveal which kinetic parameters most significantly affect ring development over time. Construction and study of such synthetic multicellular systems can improve our quantitative understanding of naturally occurring developmental processes and may foster applications in tissue engineering, biomaterial fabrication and biosensing.     

Quasispecies diversity determines pathogenesis through cooperative interactions in a viral population

An RNA virus population does not consist of a single genotype; rather, it is an ensemble of related sequences, termed quasispecies. Quasispecies arise from rapid genomic evolution powered by the high mutation rate of RNA viral replication. Although a high mutation rate is dangerous for a virus because it results in nonviable individuals, it has been hypothesized that high mutation rates create a 'cloud' of potentially beneficial mutations at the population level, which afford the viral quasispecies a greater probability to evolve and adapt to new environments and challenges during infection. Mathematical models predict that viral quasispecies are not simply a collection of diverse mutants but a group of interactive variants, which together contribute to the characteristics of the population. According to this view, viral populations, rather than individual variants, are the target of evolutionary selection. Here we test this hypothesis by examining the consequences of limiting genomic diversity on viral populations. We find that poliovirus carrying a high-fidelity polymerase replicates at wild-type levels but generates less genomic diversity and is unable to adapt to adverse growth conditions. In infected animals, the reduced viral diversity leads to loss of neurotropism and an attenuated pathogenic phenotype. Notably, using chemical mutagenesis to expand quasispecies diversity of the high-fidelity virus before infection restores neurotropism and pathogenesis. Analysis of viruses isolated from brain provides direct evidence for complementation between members in the quasispecies, indicating that selection indeed occurs at the population level rather than on individual variants. Our study provides direct evidence for a fundamental prediction of the quasispecies theory and establishes a link between mutation rate, population dynamics and pathogenesis.