Break Detectability and Mean Square Forecast Error Ratios for Selecting Estimation Windows

It has been suggested that a major problem for window selection when we estimate models for forecasting is to empirically determine the timing of the break. However, if the window choice between post‐break or full sample is based on mean square forecast error ratios, it is difficult to understand why such a problem arises since break detectability and these ratios seem to have the same determinants. This paper analyses this issue first for the expected values in conditional models and then by Monte Carlo simulations for more general cases. Results show similar behaviour between rejection frequencies and the ratios but only for break tests that do not take into account forecasting error covariances, as is the case with mean square forecast error measures. Moreover, the asymmetric shape of the frequency distribution of the ratios could help us to better grasp empirical problems. An illustration using actual data is given. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Histories of molecules: Reconciling the past

Molecular data and methods have become centrally important to evolutionary analysis, largely because they have enabled global phylogenetic reconstructions of the relationships between organisms in the tree of life. Often, however, molecular stories conflict dramatically with morphology-based histories of lineages. The evolutionary origin of animal groups provides one such case. In other instances, different molecular analyses have so far proved irreconcilable. The ancient and major divergence of eukaryotes from prokaryotic ancestors is an example of this sort of problem. Efforts to overcome these conflicts highlight the role models play in phylogenetic reconstruction. One crucial model is the molecular clock; another is that of ‘simple-to-complex’ modification. I will examine animal and eukaryote evolution against a backdrop of increasing methodological sophistication in molecular phylogeny, and conclude with some reflections on the nature of historical science in the molecular era of phylogeny.     

Eustigmaeus floridensis sp. nov., a new mite species of the genus Eustigmaeus Berlese, 1910 (Acari: Stigmaeidae) from citrus in Florida

Eustigmaeus floridensis sp. nov. is described and illustrated based on female specimens collected from citrus trees in Florida, USA. The new species is closely related to Eustigmaeus arcuata, Eustigmaeus segnis and Eustigmaeus microsegnis, all known to occur in Florida. Eustigmaeus floridensis sp. nov. can be distinguished by larger dimples associated with setae sce, d₂ and e₁ containing at least four or more vacuoles centrally; dorsal body setae broadly lanceolate and feather-like, except c₂, which is slender; anogenital area with striae and one pair of serrated aggenital (ag1) and three pairs of serrated pseudanal (ps_1?3) setae. A key to the Eustigmaeus species known to occur across USA is also provided.     

Diversity and dispersal history of the talitrids (Crustacea: Amphipoda: Talitridae) of Bermuda

Five taxa of talitrid amphipods were found in the archipelago of Bermuda, of which three were recorded there for the first time. Four of these are supralittoral wrack generalists: Platorchestia monodi BOLD:AAB3402, (a unique Molecular Operational Taxonomic Unit according to the Barcode Index Number system), a related species recognized by molecular methods, Platorchestia platensis BOLD:AAA2949, Mexorchestia carpenteri carpenteri BOLD:AAC1491 and Tethorchestia antillensis; and one a terrestrial leaf-litter generalist: Talitroides alluaudi. A key is provided to discriminate between the formally described talitrids of Bermuda. Dispersal mechanisms from the American continent to Bermuda were considered for all taxa based on species distributions along the North American Atlantic coast and also investigated by molecular methods, using genetic population differentiation and haplotype network analysis based on the barcode region of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene. For P. monodi BOLD:AAB3402 the genetic results suggest that some dispersal events occurred before human colonization of Bermuda but are equivocal about the source population and therefore the direction of dispersal. Some very recent synanthropic dispersal is possible with this species. For the other two species studied genetically, P. platensis BOLD:AAA2949 and M. c. carpenteri BOLD:AAC1491, the small population samples analysed support dispersal to Bermuda from the American mainland, before human occupation of Bermuda, although the available sample size was limited for these species. The available limited direct, non-genetic evidence supports synanthropic transport for Talitroides alluaudi. Platorchestia monodi BOLD:AAB3402 is found in the same wrack habitat as P. platensis BOLD:AAA2949 on Bermuda, apparently without interbreeding. No evidence was found that driftwood specialist talitrids had become established in Bermuda.     

Dispersal and extraterritorial movements of swift foxes ( Vulpes velox ) in northwestern Texas

Dispersal plays an important role in the population dynamics of many carnivores, yet little information exists about the dispersal and movement patterns of swift foxes ( Vulpes velox ). We radio-collared and monitored 68 swift foxes for dispersal at 2 study sites in northwestern Texas from January 2002 to April 2004. Dispersal distance for juveniles (13.1 ± 0.3 km, s ), adults (10 ± 4.7 km) and transients (25.4 ± 9.1 km) did not differ by age class ( F = 1.49, df = 2, P = 0.24) or sex ( F = 0.23, df = 1, P = 0.63) but differed by study site ( F = 4.72, df = 1, P = 0.04). Mean dispersal distance from private ranches (PR) was greater than from National Grasslands (NG). Peak dispersal occurred during October– November (13 individuals) and January–February (7 individuals). Dispersal direction was influenced by land-use practices (i.e., toward rangelands and away from anthropogenic features). Direction of dispersal among foxes that occupied the NG was uniform ( n = 16, P = 0.08), whereas foxes from PR dispersed in a northwesterly direction ( n = 18, P ≤ 0.001) away from a town and croplands. Three resident adult foxes made extraterritorial movements. Distances of these movements ranged from 0.2 km to 11.4 km. Distance of extraterritorial movements did not differ by sex ( F = 0.05, P = 0.83), nor by duration of movement ( F = 1.11, P = 0.32). Knowledge of movement distances and patterns is important for conservation and protection of swift foxes and their habitats.     

Food and habitat relationships of Claassenia sabulosa (Plecoptera: Perlidae) in the Upper Colorado River, Colorado

Streambed surveys were conducted along the upper Colorado River, Colorado, to describe the distributions of Claassenia sabulosa larvae in relation to current speed and to determine their diets. We also addressed diel feeding periodicity by sampling during both day and night. Claassenia sabulosa was more abundant in riffle habitats than in runs. A positive relationship existed between C. sabulosa abundance and stream current, with larval size increasing with current speed. Chironomidae, Baetidae, and Simulidae collectively accounted for 93% of the prey found in stonefly guts; however, these categories were not consumed equally by all C. sabulosa . Smaller C. sabulosa primarily ate chironomids, and larger individuals consumed more baetids. Only a slight difference existed in the percentage of empty guts between night- and day-collected stoneflies, and ranges of prey per gut at night were higher than those in the day, suggesting that these stoneflies may forage more intensively at night.