Forecasting Ability of a Periodic Component Extracted from Large‐Cap Index Time Series

We develop a method to extract periodic variations in a time series that are hidden in large non‐periodic and stochastic variations. This method relies on folding the time series many times and allows direct visualization of a hidden periodic component without resorting to any fitting procedure. Applying this method to several large‐cap stock time series in Europe, Japan and the USA yields a component with periodicity of 1 year. Out‐of‐sample tests on these large‐cap time series indicate that this periodic component is able to forecast long‐term (decade) behavior for large‐cap time series. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Epigenetics: a link between addiction and social environment

The detrimental effects of drug abuse are apparently not limited to individuals but may also impact the vulnerability of their progenies to develop addictive behaviours. Epigenetic signatures, early life experience and environmental factors, converge to influence gene expression patterns in addiction phenotypes and consequently may serve as mediators of behavioural trait transmission between generations. The majority of studies investigating the role of epigenetics in addiction do not consider the influence of social interactions. This shortcoming in current experimental approaches necessitates developing social models that reflect the addictive behaviour in a free-living social environment. Furthermore, this review also reports on the advancement of interventions for drug addiction and takes into account the emerging roles of histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitors in the etiology of drug addiction and that HDAC may be a potential therapeutic target at nucleosomal level to improve treatment outcomes.     

Can We Predict the Financial Markets Based on Google's Search Queries?

We look into the interaction of Google's search queries and several aspects of international equity markets. Using a novel methodology for selecting words and a vector autoregressive modeling approach, we study whether the search queries of finance‐related words can have an impact on returns, volatility of returns and traded volume in four different English‐speaking countries. We identify several words whose search frequency is associated with changes in the dependent variables. In particular, we find that increases in search queries including the word stock predict increased volatility and decreased index returns over the next week. On top of that, we investigate the performance of a market‐timing strategy based on the search frequency of this word and benchmark it against random words from the Word‐Net database and a naive buy‐and‐hold strategy. The results of this empirical application are positive and particularly stronger during the global crisis of 2009. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mortality effects of temperature changes in the United Kingdom

Temperature changes are known to affect the social and environmental determinants of health in various ways. Consequently, excess deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions may increase over the coming decades because of climate change. In this paper, the relationship between trends in mortality and trends in temperature change (as a proxy) is investigated using annual data and for specified (warm and cold) periods during the year in the UK. A thoughtful statistical analysis is implemented and a new stochastic, central mortality rate model is proposed. The new model encompasses the good features of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87: 659–671) model and its recent extensions, and for the very first time includes an exogenous factor which is a temperature‐related factor. The new model is shown to provide a significantly better‐fitting performance and more interpretable forecasts. An illustrative example of pricing a life insurance product is provided and discussed.     

Cytochrome P450 2U1, a very peculiar member of the human P450s family

Cytochrome P450 2U1 (CYP2U1) exhibits several distinctive characteristics among the 57 human CYPs, such as its presence in almost all living organisms with a highly conserved sequence, its particular gene organization with only five exons, its major location in thymus and brain, and its protein sequence involving an unusually long N-terminal region containing 8 proline residues and an insert of about 20 amino acids containing 5 arginine residues after the transmembrane helix. Few substrates, including fatty acids, N-arachidonoylserotonin (AS), and some drugs, have been reported so far. However, its biological roles remain largely unknown, even though CYP2U1 mutations have been involved in some pathological situations, such as complicated forms of hereditary spastic paraplegia. These data together with its ability to hydroxylate some fatty acids and AS suggest its possible role in lipid metabolism.     

γ-Aminobutyric acid (GABA) signalling in plants

The role of γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) as a signal in animals has been documented for over 60 years. In contrast, evidence that GABA is a signal in plants has only emerged in the last 15 years, and it was not until last year that a mechanism by which this could occur was identified—a plant ‘GABA receptor’ that inhibits anion passage through the aluminium-activated malate transporter family of proteins (ALMTs). ALMTs are multigenic, expressed in different organs and present on different membranes. We propose GABA regulation of ALMT activity could function as a signal that modulates plant growth, development, and stress response. In this review, we compare and contrast the plant ‘GABA receptor’ with mammalian GABA_A receptors in terms of their molecular identity, predicted topology, mode of action, and signalling roles. We also explore the implications of the discovery that GABA modulates anion flux in plants, its role in signal transduction for the regulation of plant physiology, and predict the possibility that there are other GABA interaction sites in the N termini of ALMT proteins through in silico evolutionary coupling analysis; we also explore the potential interactions between GABA and other signalling molecules.     

Old drugs with new skills: fenoprofen as an allosteric enhancer at melanocortin receptor 3

The efficiency of drug research and development has paradoxically declined over the last decades despite major scientific and technological advances, promoting new cost-effective strategies such as drug repositioning by systematic screening for new actions of known drugs. Here, we performed a screening for positive allosteric modulators (PAMs) at melanocortin (MC) receptors. The non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug fenoprofen, but not the similar compound ibuprofen, presented PAM activity at MC₃, MC₄, and MC₅ receptors. In a model of inflammatory arthritis, fenoprofen afforded potent inhibition while ibuprofen was nearly inactive. Fenoprofen presented anti-arthritic actions on cartilage integrity and synovitis, effects markedly attenuated in Mc3r?/? mice. Fenoprofen displayed pro-resolving properties promoting macrophage phagocytosis and efferocytosis, independently of cyclooxygenase inhibition. In conclusion, combining repositioning with advances in G-protein coupled receptor biology (allosterism) may lead to potential new therapeutics. In addition, MC₃ PAMs emerged as a viable approach to the development of innovative therapeutics for joint diseases.     

Assessing heterogeneity in oligomeric AAA+ machines

ATPases Associated with various cellular Activities (AAA+ ATPases) are molecular motors that use the energy of ATP binding and hydrolysis to remodel their target macromolecules. The majority of these ATPases form ring-shaped hexamers in which the active sites are located at the interfaces between neighboring subunits. Structural changes initiate in an active site and propagate to distant motor parts that interface and reshape the target macromolecules, thereby performing mechanical work. During the functioning cycle, the AAA+ motor transits through multiple distinct states. Ring architecture and placement of the catalytic sites at the intersubunit interfaces allow for a unique level of coordination among subunits of the motor. This in turn results in conformational differences among subunits and overall asymmetry of the motor ring as it functions. To date, a large amount of structural information has been gathered for different AAA+ motors, but even for the most characterized of them only a few structural states are known and the full mechanistic cycle cannot be yet reconstructed. Therefore, the first part of this work will provide a broad overview of what arrangements of AAA+ subunits have been structurally observed focusing on diversity of ATPase oligomeric ensembles and heterogeneity within the ensembles. The second part of this review will concentrate on methods that assess structural and functional heterogeneity among subunits of AAA+ motors, thus bringing us closer to understanding the mechanism of these fascinating molecular motors.     

Melatonin and mitochondrial function during ischemia/reperfusion injury

Ischemia/reperfusion (IR) injury occurs in many organs and tissues, and contributes to morbidity and mortality worldwide. Melatonin, an endogenously produced indolamine, provides a strong defense against IR injury. Mitochondrion, an organelle for ATP production and a decider for cell fate, has been validated to be a crucial target for melatonin to exert its protection against IR injury. In this review, we first clarify the mechanisms underlying mitochondrial dysfunction during IR and melatonin’s protection of mitochondria under this condition. Thereafter, special focus is placed on the protective actions of melatonin against IR injury in brain, heart, liver, and others. Finally, we explore several potential future directions of research in this area. Collectively, the information compiled here will serve as a comprehensive reference for the actions of melatonin in IR injury identified to date and will hopefully aid in the design of future research and increase the potential of melatonin as a therapeutic agent.     

Transient and constitutive repression of cytoplasmic translation signaling in cells with mtDNA mutation

Cytoplasmic translation is under sophisticated control but how cells adapt its rate to constitutive loss of mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation is unknown. Here we show that translation is repressed in cells with the pathogenic A3243G mtDNA mutation or in mtDNA-less ρ⁰ cells by at least two distinct pathways, one transiently targeting elongation factor eEF-2 and the other initiation factor eIF-2α constitutively. Under conditions of exponential cell growth and mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) activation, eEF-2 becomes transiently phosphorylated by an AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK)-dependent pathway, especially high in mutant cells. Independent of AMPK and mTOR, eIF-2α is constitutively phosphorylated in mutant cells, likely a signature of endoplasmic reticulum (ER)-stress response induced by the loss of oxidative phosphorylation. While the AMPK/eEF-2K/eEF-2 pathway appears to function in adaptation to physiological fluctuations in ATP levels in the mutant cells, the ER stress signified by constitutive protein synthesis inhibition through eIF-2α-mediated repression of translation initiation may have pathobiochemical consequences. Received 29 October 2008; received after revision 11 December 2008; accepted 16 December 2008