On the limitations of comparing mean square forecast errors

Linear models are invariant under non-singular, scale-preserving linear transformations, whereas mean square forecast errors (MSFEs) are not. Different rankings may result across models or methods from choosing alternative yet isomorphic representations of a process. One approach can dominate others for comparisons in levels, yet lose to another for differences, to a second for cointegrating vectors and to a third for combinations of variables. The potential for switches in ranking is related to criticisms of the inadequacy of MSFE against encompassing criteria, which are invariant under linear transforms and entail MSFE dominance. An invariant evaluation criterion which avoids misleading outcomes is examined in a Monte Carlo study of forecasting methods.     

Trying times for human insulin.

The introduction of human insulin to treat diabetics seemed straightforward. What can account for the problems that have followed?     

基于神经网络的企业信用等级评估

企业信用等级评估是金融领域重要的问题，论文采用人工神经网络模型研究企业信用等级的评估问题，按照企业样本在信用等级的分布状况来抽样，然后，根据企业样本性质的不同，将其分为制造业和非制造业两大类，利用偏相关分析方法建立了企业信用评级的指标体系，此外，还介绍了几种企业信用评级常用的评估模型，并将神经网络评估模型的性能和其他的信用评估模型作了比较，实验结果表明神经网络模型具有更好的预测准确性。     

管理系统的最经济控制问题

依据最经济控制问题的概念及其对无确定性数学模型系统分析存在的局限性，对现代管理系统最经济控制问题，提出了在满足系统基本要求前提下。实现控制功能及品质与控制成本比最佳或最划算的模型定义，并对管理系统的可靠性、ABC管理法、WSR方法论等方面的可靠性成本、运行成本和最佳收益等最经济控制问题进行了研究．     

Growth hormone signal transduction

Growth hormone (GH) promotes animal growth by stimulating bone and cartilage cell proliferation, and influences carbohydrate and lipid metabolism. Some of these effects are brought about indirectly via somatomedin induction in hepatocytes, others by acting directly on the target cells. In either case, GH first binds to specific receptors on cells to trigger a sequence of biochemical events culminating in a biological response. Recently much has been learnt about the molecular structure of GH receptor, its binding to ligand, and the ensuing signal transduction events.     

Periodic paralysis in quarter horses: a sodium channel mutation disseminated by selective breeding.

We recently reported on a linkage study within a Quarter Horse lineage segregating hyperkalaemic periodic paralysis (HYPP), an autosomal dominant condition showing potassium-induced attacks of skeletal muscle paralysis. HYPP co-segregated with the equine adult skeletal muscle sodium channel alpha subunit gene, the same gene that causes human HYPP. We now describe the Phe to Leu mutation in transmembrane domain IVS3 which courses the horse disease. This represents the first application of molecular genetics to an important horse disease, and the data will provide an opportunity for control or eradication of this condition.     

Short alanine-based peptides may form 3(10)-helices and not alpha-helices in aqueous solution.

Short alanine peptides, containing 16 or 17 residues, appear to form alpha-helices in aqueous solution. But the main spectroscopic analyses used on helical peptides (circular dichroism and nuclear magnetic resonance) cannot distinguish between an alpha-helix (in which the ith residue is hydrogen-bonded to residue i + 4; ref. 9) and the next most common peptide helix, the 3(10)-helix10 (i-->i + 3 hydrogen-bonding). To address this problem we have designed single and doubly spin-labelled analogues of alanine-based peptides in which the nitroxide spin label forms an unbranched side chain extending from the sulphur atom of a cysteine residue. Here we report the circular dichroism, Fourier-transform infrared and electron-spin resonance spectra of these peptides under helix-forming conditions. The infrared absorbance gives an amide I' band with a frequency that is substantially different from that observed for alpha-helices. The electron-spin resonance spectra of doubly labelled helices show that the ranking of distances between side chains, around a single turn (residues 4-8), is inconsistent with an alpha-helical structure. Our experiments suggest that the more likely peptide geometry is a 3(10)-helix.     

生物序列分析

这次演讲将回顾近 1 0多年来应用某些随机模型于生物序列分析的研究工作 .这些模型本身有很长的历史 ,可追溯到 3 0多年以前 ,尽管从那时起 ,这些模型已经产生了很多新的变种 .在生物序列分析中模型的作用是归总那些涉及到在生物信息学中已知的模体 (motif)或域 (domain)的信息 ,并且提供一种工具在另一序列片段中寻找模体或域的实例 (instance) .我们将逐步介绍模体模型 ,从非常简单的 ,非随机情况开始 ,进而是更复杂的情况 ,直至近来的关于模体的剖面隐马氏模型 .第二个例子是来自利用一个或两个物种的序列数据进行基因发现 ,其中广义隐马氏模型或广义成对 (pair)隐马氏模型已被证实非常有效     

Effect of 15(R)-15-methyl-prostaglandin E2 on iron absorption in the rat

Summary The administration of 15(R)-15-methyl prostaglandin E₂ (15(R)-15-M-PGE₂) in vivo significantly diminished the uptake of⁵⁹Fe into blood, spleen, liver, femur and dried intestine of rats, whereas acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) increased the counts significantly. This effect of ASA was counteracted by 15(R)-15-M-PGE₂. It is suggested that prostaglandins (PGs) might play an important role in inhibiting iron absorption at the intestinal level.This work was supported by grant No.6638 from CONICET (Argentina). The technical assistance of Mrs María E. Castro and Norma Rizzo is gratefully acknowleged.