Extended megadroughts in the southwestern United States during Pleistocene interglacials

The potential for increased drought frequency and severity linked to anthropogenic climate change in the semi-arid regions of the southwestern United States (US) is a serious concern. Multi-year droughts during the instrumental period and decadal-length droughts of the past two millennia were shorter and climatically different from the future permanent, 'dust-bowl-like' megadrought conditions, lasting decades to a century, that are predicted as a consequence of warming. So far, it has been unclear whether or not such megadroughts occurred in the southwestern US, and, if so, with what regularity and intensity. Here we show that periods of aridity lasting centuries to millennia occurred in the southwestern US during mid-Pleistocene interglacials. Using molecular palaeotemperature proxies to reconstruct the mean annual temperature (MAT) in mid-Pleistocene lacustrine sediment from the Valles Caldera, New Mexico, we found that the driest conditions occurred during the warmest phases of interglacials, when the MAT was comparable to or higher than the modern MAT. A collapse of drought-tolerant C(4) plant communities during these warm, dry intervals indicates a significant reduction in summer precipitation, possibly in response to a poleward migration of the subtropical dry zone. Three MAT cycles ～2?°C in amplitude occurred within Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 and seem to correspond to the muted precessional cycles within this interglacial. In comparison with MIS 11, MIS 13 experienced higher precessional-cycle amplitudes, larger variations in MAT (4-6?°C) and a longer period of extended warmth, suggesting that local insolation variations were important to interglacial climatic variability in the southwestern US. Comparison of the early MIS 11 climate record with the Holocene record shows many similarities and implies that, in the absence of anthropogenic forcing, the region should be entering a cooler and wetter phase.     

Predicting Stock Return Volatility: Can We Benefit from Regression Models for Return Intervals?

We study the performance of recently developed linear regression models for interval data when it comes to forecasting the uncertainty surrounding future stock returns. These interval data models use easy‐to‐compute daily return intervals during the modeling, estimation and forecasting stage. They have to stand up to comparable point‐data models of the well‐known capital asset pricing model type—which employ single daily returns based on successive closing prices and might allow for GARCH effects—in a comprehensive out‐of‐sample forecasting competition. The latter comprises roughly 1000 daily observations on all 30 stocks that constitute the DAX, Germany's main stock index, for a period covering both the calm market phase before and the more turbulent times during the recent financial crisis. The interval data models clearly outperform simple random walk benchmarks as well as the point‐data competitors in the great majority of cases. This result does not only hold when one‐day‐ahead forecasts of the conditional variance are considered, but is even more evident when the focus is on forecasting the width or the exact location of the next day's return interval. Regression models based on interval arithmetic thus prove to be a promising alternative to established point‐data volatility forecasting tools. Copyright ©2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ANG mutations segregate with familial and 'sporadic' amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

We recently identified angiogenin (ANG) as a candidate susceptibility gene for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by adult-onset loss of motor neurons. We now report the finding of seven missense mutations in 15 individuals, of whom four had familial ALS and 11 apparently 'sporadic' ALS. Our findings provide further evidence that variations in hypoxia-inducible genes have an important role in motor neuron degeneration.     

Male-pattern baldness susceptibility locus at 20p11

We conducted a genome-wide association study for androgenic alopecia in 1,125 men and identified a newly associated locus at chromosome 20p11.22, confirmed in three independent cohorts (n = 1,650; OR = 1.60, P = 1.1 x 10(-14) for rs1160312). The one man in seven who harbors risk alleles at both 20p11.22 and AR (encoding the androgen receptor) has a sevenfold-increased odds of androgenic alopecia (OR = 7.12, P = 3.7 x 10(-15)).     

Common variants on 1p36 and 1q42 are associated with cutaneous basal cell carcinoma but not with melanoma or pigmentation traits

To search for new sequence variants that confer risk of cutaneous basal cell carcinoma (BCC), we conducted a genome-wide SNP association study of 930 Icelanders with BCC and 33,117 controls. After analyzing 304,083 SNPs, we observed signals from loci at 1p36 and 1q42, and replicated these associations in additional sample sets from Iceland and Eastern Europe. Overall, the most significant signals were from rs7538876 on 1p36 (OR = 1.28, P = 4.4 x 10(-12)) and rs801114 on 1q42 (OR = 1.28, P = 5.9 x 10(-12)). The 1p36 locus contains the candidate genes PADI4, PADI6, RCC2 and ARHGEF10L, and the gene nearest to the 1q42 locus is the ras-homolog RHOU. Neither locus was associated with fair pigmentation traits that are known risk factors for BCC, and no risk was observed for melanoma. Approximately 1.6% of individuals of European ancestry are homozygous for both variants, and their estimated risk of BCC is 2.68 times that of noncarriers.