Can forecasters forecast successfully? Evidence from UK betting markets

This paper investigates the performance of professional racetrack forecasting services in the UK. The racetrack market is chosen for investigation because it offers a clear and well‐defined set of costs and returns. As such, it provides a useful perspective from which to consider the efficiency of professional forecasting performance. Five services are selected based on their reported success in a period prior to the sample selection. The results of this study indicate that all the services showed evidence of net pre‐tax profits, notably for more strongly recommended tips, but this would have required quite high stakes to cover the costs of accessing the information. Statistical tests of significance were unable, however, to confirm the evidence of profitability at conventional levels of acceptance. Taking into account the transactions costs of using these services, it is even more difficult to confirm the existence of abnormal returns. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

考虑解答者公平关切的众包竞赛知识共享激励

研究了解答者之间的横向公平关切特征对众包竞赛发包方知识共享激励的影响。在构建公平关切下解答者效用函数的基础上,建立并求解了无知识共享激励模型(NKS)和知识共享激励模型(KS),用理论分析和数值仿真方法研究了公平关切敏感度对发包方最优知识共享激励程度、解答者最优私有解答努力程度及知识共享努力程度、众包项目绩效以及双方期望经济收益的影响,并与无知识共享激励进行了对比。研究表明：解答者公平关切心理能降低实施共享知识激励机制的门槛,并提升发包方最优知识共享激励程度;解答方知识共享努力与公平关切正相关,但私有解答努力与之负相关;众包项目绩效、发包方绝对经济收益与公平关切的关系取决于解答努力绩效转化率和知识共享努力绩效转化率之间的比值;知识共享激励机制能实现发包方和解答者双方经济利益的共赢,且其经济价值随公平关切敏感度增大而提高,并受到参赛人数的调节作用。     

Breakpoints in the human T-cell antigen receptor alpha-chain locus in two T-cell leukaemia patients with chromosomal translocations

Specific chromosomal translocations have been observed in several human and animal tumours and are believed to be important in tumorigenesis. In many of these translocations the breakpoints lie near cellular homologues of transforming genes, suggesting that tumour development is partly due to the activation of these genes. The best-characterized example of such a translocation occurs in mouse plasmacytoma and human B-cell lymphoma, where c-myc, the cellular homologue of the viral oncogene myc, is brought into close proximity with either the light- or heavy-chain genes of the immunoglobulin loci, resulting in a change in the regulation of the myc gene. T-cell malignancies also have characteristic chromosomal abnormalities, many of which seem to involve the 14q11-14q13 region. This region has recently been found to contain the alpha-chain genes of the human T-cell antigen receptor. Here we determine more precisely the chromosome breakpoints in two patients whose leukaemic T cells contain reciprocal translocations between 11p13 and 14q13. Segregation analysis of somatic cell hybrids demonstrates that in both patients the breakpoints occur between the variable (V) and constant (C) region genes of the T-cell receptor alpha-chain locus, resulting in the translocation of the C-region gene from chromosome 14 to chromosome 11. As the 11p13 locus has been implicated in the development of Wilms' tumour, it is possible that either the Wilms' tumour gene or a yet unidentified gene in this region is involved in tumorigenesis and is altered as a result of its translocation into the T-cell receptor alpha-chain locus.     

Specific inhibition of a calcium dependent activation of brain cyclic AMP phosphodiesterase activity by vinblastine

Summary Vinblastine selectively inhibits the activation of brain cyclic AMP phosphodiesterase activity by Ca⁺⁺-protein activator (50% inhibition by 2×10^–5 M). This inhibitory effect was reversed by excessive amounts of the activator, whereas large quantities of Ca⁺⁺ caused only a slight suppression of the vinblastine effect. This result of vinblastine suggests a new site of its action and also suggests the possible role of protein activator, phosphodiesterase proteins or cyclic nucleotides in the previously known effects of vinblastine in vivo and in vitro.Our thanks to Drs A. R. Rhoads, C. B. Klee and R. A. Fergusson for analyzing PA preparations by gel electrophoresis and gel electrofocusing, and to Drs A. A. Suran and D. Soifer for their valuable critiques to this work. This work was partly supported by Biochemical Research Support Grant No. 5SO7RRO5361 to K.W. and Graduate Training Grant No. 5TO2GMO500002 to W.L.W. from NIH.     

The extracellular matrix of theDictyostelium discoideum slug

In this review, we detail the current understanding of the extracellular matrix (ECM) of the migratory slug phase of the cellular slime mould,Dictyostelium discoideum. We describe some structural and non-structural molecules which comprise the ECM, and how these molecules reflect both plant and animal ECM systems. We also describe zones of the multicellular slug that are known to make ECM components, including the role of the prestalk cells and the slug epithelium-like layer. Finally, we review the contributions of studies on mutant to our understanding of the ECM ofD. discoideum, and relate this to differentiation and development in more complex eukaryotic systems.     

Antibodies to CD3/T-cell receptor complex induce death by apoptosis in immature T cells in thymic cultures

The receptors found on most T lymphocytes bind to antigen presented on major histocompatibility complex proteins and consist of dimers of alpha- and beta-polypeptides associated with the invariant CD3 complex. A fully competent immune system requires a diverse array of T-cell antigen receptors (TCRs) with different specificities. This diversity is generated by rearrangement of TCR alpha- and beta-chain gene segments within the thymus where the receptors are first expressed. Any cells carrying self-reactive receptors must be eliminated, suppressed or inactivated so that destructive autoimmunity is avoided. Recently, compelling evidence has shown that one process involved in producing such self-tolerance is clonal deletion of autoreactive cells within the thymus by an as-yet-undefined mechanism. Here we show that engaging the CD3/TCR complex of immature mouse thymocytes with anti-CD3 antibodies produces DNA degradation and cell death through the endogenous pathway of apoptosis. Activation of this process in immature T cells by the binding of the TCR to self-antigens may therefore be the mechanism which produces clonal deletion and consequently self-tolerance.     

Epidemiological evidence for causal relationship between Epstein-Barr virus and Burkitt's lymphoma from Ugandan prospective study.

Results from a prospective sero-epidemiological study initiated in Uganda in 1971 indicate that children with high antibody titres to Epstein-Barr virus structural antigens are at high risk of developing Burkitt's lymphoma. These findings strongly support a causal relationship between the Epstein-Barr virus and Burkitt's lymphoma but suggest that the oncogenic potential of the virus is realised only in exceptional circumstances.