A comparison of temperature density forecasts from GARCH and atmospheric models

Density forecasts for weather variables are useful for the many industries exposed to weather risk. Weather ensemble predictions are generated from atmospheric models and consist of multiple future scenarios for a weather variable. The distribution of the scenarios can be used as a density forecast, which is needed for pricing weather derivatives. We consider one to 10‐day‐ahead density forecasts provided by temperature ensemble predictions. More specifically, we evaluate forecasts of the mean and quantiles of the density. The mean of the ensemble scenarios is the most accurate forecast for the mean of the density. We use quantile regression to debias the quantiles of the distribution of the ensemble scenarios. The resultant quantile forecasts compare favourably with those from a GARCH model. These results indicate the strong potential for the use of ensemble prediction in temperature density forecasting. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multiple neonatal deaths due to a homoplasmic mitochondrial DNA mutation.

Mutations of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) are an important cause of genetic disease. We describe a family with an unusual homoplasmic mutation that resulted in six neonatal deaths and one surviving child with Leigh syndrome. The mother is clinically normal, but a severe biochemical and molecular genetic defect was present in both a fatally affected child and the mother. This family highlights the role of homoplasmic mt-tRNA mutations in genetic disease.     

Beyond Reflection: Cake and Co-operative Inquiry

Issues arising during a participatory action research project with a group of midwives are explored, in particular, those related to group process, membership, and roles. A Midwives Action Research Group established an Early Mothering Group for women in hospital to talk to each other and form supportive social networks. The time-honored ritual of sharing morning tea and cake allowed both midwives and mothers to experience the therapeutic potential and power of women's ordinary talk.     

Polo-like kinase-1 is activated by aurora A to promote checkpoint recovery

Polo-like kinase-1 (PLK1) is an essential mitotic kinase regulating multiple aspects of the cell division process. Activation of PLK1 requires phosphorylation of a conserved threonine residue (Thr 210) in the T-loop of the PLK1 kinase domain, but the kinase responsible for this has not yet been affirmatively identified. Here we show that in human cells PLK1 activation occurs several hours before entry into mitosis, and requires aurora A (AURKA, also known as STK6)-dependent phosphorylation of Thr 210. We find that aurora A can directly phosphorylate PLK1 on Thr 210, and that activity of aurora A towards PLK1 is greatly enhanced by Bora (also known as C13orf34 and FLJ22624), a known cofactor for aurora A (ref. 7). We show that Bora/aurora-A-dependent phosphorylation is a prerequisite for PLK1 to promote mitotic entry after a checkpoint-dependent arrest. Importantly, expression of a PLK1-T210D phospho-mimicking mutant partially overcomes the requirement for aurora A in checkpoint recovery. Taken together, these data demonstrate that the initial activation of PLK1 is a primary function of aurora A.     

How Cooper pairs vanish approaching the Mott insulator in Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+delta

The antiferromagnetic ground state of copper oxide Mott insulators is achieved by localizing an electron at each copper atom in real space (r-space). Removing a small fraction of these electrons (hole doping) transforms this system into a superconducting fluid of delocalized Cooper pairs in momentum space (k-space). During this transformation, two distinctive classes of electronic excitations appear. At high energies, the mysterious 'pseudogap' excitations are found, whereas, at lower energies, Bogoliubov quasi-particles-the excitations resulting from the breaking of Cooper pairs-should exist. To explore this transformation, and to identify the two excitation types, we have imaged the electronic structure of Bi(2)Sr(2)CaCu(2)O(8+delta) in r-space and k-space simultaneously. We find that although the low-energy excitations are indeed Bogoliubov quasi-particles, they occupy only a restricted region of k-space that shrinks rapidly with diminishing hole density. Concomitantly, spectral weight is transferred to higher energy r-space states that lack the characteristics of excitations from delocalized Cooper pairs. Instead, these states break translational and rotational symmetries locally at the atomic scale in an energy-independent way. We demonstrate that these unusual r-space excitations are, in fact, the pseudogap states. Thus, as the Mott insulating state is approached by decreasing the hole density, the delocalized Cooper pairs vanish from k-space, to be replaced by locally translational- and rotational-symmetry-breaking pseudogap states in r-space.     

Sulphur isotope evidence for an oxic Archaean atmosphere

The presence of mass-independently fractionated sulphur isotopes (MIF-S) in many sedimentary rocks older than approximately 2.4 billion years (Gyr), and the absence of MIF-S in younger rocks, has been considered the best evidence for a dramatic change from an anoxic to oxic atmosphere around 2.4 Gyr ago. This is because the only mechanism known to produce MIF-S has been ultraviolet photolysis of volcanic sulphur dioxide gas in an oxygen-poor atmosphere. Here we report the absence of MIF-S throughout approximately 100-m sections of 2.76-Gyr-old lake sediments and 2.92-Gyr-old marine shales in the Pilbara Craton, Western Australia. We propose three possible interpretations of the MIF-S geologic record: (1) the level of atmospheric oxygen fluctuated greatly during the Archaean era; (2) the atmosphere has remained oxic since approximately 3.8 Gyr ago, and MIF-S in sedimentary rocks represents times and regions of violent volcanic eruptions that ejected large volumes of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere; or (3) MIF-S in rocks was mostly created by non-photochemical reactions during sediment diagenesis, and thus is not linked to atmospheric chemistry.     

Human chromosome 11 DNA sequence and analysis including novel gene identification

Chromosome 11, although average in size, is one of the most gene- and disease-rich chromosomes in the human genome. Initial gene annotation indicates an average gene density of 11.6 genes per megabase, including 1,524 protein-coding genes, some of which were identified using novel methods, and 765 pseudogenes. One-quarter of the protein-coding genes shows overlap with other genes. Of the 856 olfactory receptor genes in the human genome, more than 40% are located in 28 single- and multi-gene clusters along this chromosome. Out of the 171 disorders currently attributed to the chromosome, 86 remain for which the underlying molecular basis is not yet known, including several mendelian traits, cancer and susceptibility loci. The high-quality data presented here--nearly 134.5 million base pairs representing 99.8% coverage of the euchromatic sequence--provide scientists with a solid foundation for understanding the genetic basis of these disorders and other biological phenomena.