Assessing the historical accuracy of regional economic forecasts

This study addresses for the first time systematic evaluation of a widely used class of forecasts, regional economic forecasts. Ex ante regional structural equation model forecasts are analysed for 19 metropolitan areas. One- to ten-quarter-ahead forecasts are considered and the seven-year sample spans a complete business cycle. Counter to previous speculation in the literature, (1) dependency on macroeconomic forecasting model inputs does not substantially erode accuracy relative to univariate extrapolative methodologies and (2) stochastic time series models do not on average, yield more accurate regional economic predictions than structural models. Similar to findings in other studies, clear preferences among extrapolative methodologies do not emerge. Most general conclusions, however, are subject to caveats based on step-length effects and region-specific effects.     

Toward interoperable bioscience data

To make full use of research data, the bioscience community needs to adopt technologies and reward mechanisms that support interoperability and promote the growth of an open 'data commoning' culture. Here we describe the prerequisites for data commoning and present an established and growing ecosystem of solutions using the shared 'Investigation-Study-Assay' framework to support that vision.     

Detectable clonal mosaicism and its relationship to aging and cancer

In an analysis of 31,717 cancer cases and 26,136 cancer-free controls from 13 genome-wide association studies, we observed large chromosomal abnormalities in a subset of clones in DNA obtained from blood or buccal samples. We observed mosaic abnormalities, either aneuploidy or copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity, of >2 Mb in size in autosomes of 517 individuals (0.89%), with abnormal cell proportions of between 7% and 95%. In cancer-free individuals, frequency increased with age, from 0.23% under 50 years to 1.91% between 75 and 79 years (P = 4.8 × 10(-8)). Mosaic abnormalities were more frequent in individuals with solid tumors (0.97% versus 0.74% in cancer-free individuals; odds ratio (OR) = 1.25; P = 0.016), with stronger association with cases who had DNA collected before diagnosis or treatment (OR = 1.45; P = 0.0005). Detectable mosaicism was also more common in individuals for whom DNA was collected at least 1 year before diagnosis with leukemia compared to cancer-free individuals (OR = 35.4; P = 3.8 × 10(-11)). These findings underscore the time-dependent nature of somatic events in the etiology of cancer and potentially other late-onset diseases.     

A genome-wide association study of Hodgkin's lymphoma identifies new susceptibility loci at 2p16.1 (REL), 8q24.21 and 10p14 (GATA3)

To identify susceptibility loci for classical Hodgkin's lymphoma (cHL), we conducted a genome-wide association study of 589 individuals with cHL (cases) and 5,199 controls with validation in four independent samples totaling 2,057 cases and 3,416 controls. We identified three new susceptibility loci at 2p16.1 (rs1432295, REL, odds ratio (OR) = 1.22, combined P = 1.91 × 10(-8)), 8q24.21 (rs2019960, PVT1, OR = 1.33, combined P = 1.26 × 10(-13)) and 10p14 (rs501764, GATA3, OR = 1.25, combined P = 7.05 × 10(-8)). Furthermore, we confirmed the role of the major histocompatibility complex in disease etiology by revealing a strong human leukocyte antigen (HLA) association (rs6903608, OR = 1.70, combined P = 2.84 × 10(-50)). These data provide new insight into the pathogenesis of cHL.     

Mutations in the gene encoding the PML nuclear body protein Sp110 are associated with immunodeficiency and hepatic veno-occlusive disease

We describe mutations in the PML nuclear body protein Sp110 in the syndrome veno-occlusive disease with immunodeficiency, an autosomal recessive disorder of severe hypogammaglobulinemia, combined T and B cell immunodeficiency, absent lymph node germinal centers, absent tissue plasma cells and hepatic veno-occlusive disease. This is the first report of the involvement of a nuclear body protein in a human primary immunodeficiency and of high-penetrance genetic mutations in hepatic veno-occlusive disease.     

Competition and phylogeny determine community structure in Müllerian co-mimics

Until recently, the study of negative and antagonistic interactions (for example, competition and predation) has dominated our understanding of community structure, maintenance and assembly. Nevertheless, a recent theoretical model suggests that positive interactions (for example, mutualisms) may counterbalance competition, facilitating long-term coexistence even among ecologically undifferentiated species. Müllerian mimics are mutualists that share the costs of predator education and are therefore ideally suited for the investigation of positive and negative interactions in community dynamics. The sole empirical test of this model in a Müllerian mimetic community supports the prediction that positive interactions outweigh the negative effects of spatial overlap (without quantifying resource acquisition). Understanding the role of trophic niche partitioning in facilitating the evolution and stability of Müllerian mimetic communities is now of critical importance, but has yet to be formally investigated. Here we show that resource partitioning and phylogeny determine community structure and outweigh the positive effects of Müllerian mimicry in a species-rich group of neotropical catfishes. From multiple, independent reproductively isolated allopatric communities displaying convergently evolved colour patterns, 92% consist of species that do not compete for resources. Significant differences in phylogenetically conserved traits (snout morphology and body size) were consistently linked to trait-specific resource acquisition. Thus, we report the first evidence, to our knowledge, that competition for trophic resources and phylogeny are pivotal factors in the stable evolution of Müllerian mimicry rings. More generally, our work demonstrates that competition for resources is likely to have a dominant role in the structuring of communities that are simultaneously subject to the effects of both positive and negative interactions.