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291.
James W. Taylor 《Journal of forecasting》2004,23(6):385-404
Adaptive exponential smoothing methods allow a smoothing parameter to change over time, in order to adapt to changes in the characteristics of the time series. However, these methods have tended to produce unstable forecasts and have performed poorly in empirical studies. This paper presents a new adaptive method, which enables a smoothing parameter to be modelled as a logistic function of a user‐specified variable. The approach is analogous to that used to model the time‐varying parameter in smooth transition models. Using simulated data, we show that the new approach has the potential to outperform existing adaptive methods and constant parameter methods when the estimation and evaluation samples both contain a level shift or both contain an outlier. An empirical study, using the monthly time series from the M3‐Competition, gave encouraging results for the new approach. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
292.
J. C. Philp K. J. Taylor N. Christofi 《Cellular and molecular life sciences : CMLS》1991,47(6):553-559
Summary Experiments are described which investigate corrosion of forged 0.2% carbon steel in the presence of sulphate reducing bacteria (SRB). Cultures of a thermophilic bacteriumDesulfotomaculum nigrificans were mixed with bentonite and synthetic groundwater to simulate a bacteria-contamined backfill, and placed in contact with carbon steel disc specimens in perspex cells at 50°C under anaerobic conditions. The rates of corrosion were monitored by electrochemical techniques, together with changes in near field redox potential. After 340 days the nature and extent of any corrosion was measured and the SRB content of the bentonite determined. Recovery of relatively large numbers of bacteria after about one year incubation in an alkaline (pH 9.5) medium confirmed the pH tolerance of the strain. Enhanced corrosion (three times the rate of the control) occurred in at least two of the five cells that contained SRB despite the nutritionally poor environment which existed in the bentonite gel. 相似文献
293.
Résumé Le broyage mécanique deSerratia marcescens pigmentés produit un liquide rouge clair. Après centrifugation à 105 000×g, le pigment se sédimente sous forme d'un agglomérat rouge et la phase liquide reste incolore. La courbe du matériel de l'agglomérat remis en suspension montre à l'ultracentrifuge un seul sommet coïncidant avec le pigment.S. marcescens non pigmentés ne produisent pas d'agglomérat après broyage et centrifugation et donnent une courbe différente à l'ultracentrifuge. 相似文献
294.
T. G. Taylor 《Cellular and molecular life sciences : CMLS》1960,16(3):109-110
Zusammenfassung Fraktionierungsexperimente an Knochenpulver zeigten, dass das Kalium in verdünnter Säure leicht und fast vollständig löslich ist. Ein wesentlicher Teil des Natriums bleibt aber, sogar nach stärkster Behandlung mit Säure, ungelöst. 相似文献
295.
P. Seethanathan P. Taylor K. Ehrlich 《Cellular and molecular life sciences : CMLS》1980,36(3):279-280
Summary Proteoglycans were isolated from bovine lung, trachea, tracheal mucosa, and aorta by dissociative extraction with 4M guanidinium hydrochloride. Fractionation of these tissue extracts by cesium chloride density centrifugation and gel chromatography allowed the isolation from each extract of a high molecular weight fraction consisting mainly of proteochondroitin sulfate and hyaluronic acid.Acknowledgment. This work was supported by a National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute grant to K. Ehrlich (HL21617). 相似文献
296.
Taylor M. J. Moynihan E. P. Wood-Harper A. T. 《Systemic Practice and Action Research》1998,11(4):419-434
Business systems maintenance represents a large proportion of the work of IT staff in most organizations. Many methodologies relevant to IT concentrate on systems development and give little attention to systems maintenance. In this paper we discuss the relevance and benefits of the Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) to systems maintenance. Payroll administration is then used to provide an outline illustration of the use of SSM for systems maintenance projects. Aspects of the use of SSM for systems maintenance projects are also discussed. 相似文献
297.
Mark John Taylor Emma Higgins Mike Francis Hulya Francis 《Systems Research and Behavioral Science》2012,29(3):240-252
In this paper, we examine the use of soft systems methodology (SSM) for analysing patterns of nonparticipation in recreational sports activities, identifying potential barriers to recreational sports participation and assisting the site location process for new or extended recreational sports facilities. The research reported in this paper was based upon a 1‐year case study in a UK regional sports participation agency. The results of the SSM analysis enabled an enhanced understanding of the nature of recreational sports nonparticipation among differing socio‐economic, age and gender groups. This provided a basis for an analysis of the potential barriers to recreational sports participation. This enabled an informed modelling approach to the location of new or extended recreational sports facilities implemented using a geographical information system. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
298.
A marine natural product, farnesylacetone epoxide, which is chemically related to juvenile hormone, has anticonvulsant properties at nonsedative doses in mice. 相似文献
299.
V. L. Yeager D. J. Anderson J. J. Taylor 《Cellular and molecular life sciences : CMLS》1985,41(2):262-265
Summary The amount and arrangement of smooth muscle in the intrahepatic vessels suggests that the guinea pig would be a good animal model for studying mechanisms controlling intrahepatic portal vein blood flow, while the raccoon would be good for studying hepatic vein mechanisms of control. 相似文献
300.
The amount and arrangement of smooth muscle in the intrahepatic vessels suggests that the guinea pig would be a good animal model for studying mechanisms controlling intrahepatic portal vein blood flow, while the raccoon would be good for studying hepatic vein mechanisms of control. 相似文献