Forecasting Inflation Across Euro Area Countries and Sectors: A Panel VAR Approach

In this paper, we adopt a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) approach to estimating and forecasting inflation dynamics in four different sectors—industry, services, construction and agriculture—across the euro area and its four largest member states: France, Germany, Italy and Spain. By modelling inflation together with real activity, employment and wages at the sectoral level, we are able to disentangle the role of unit labour costs and profit margins as the fundamental determinants of price dynamics on the supply side. In out‐of‐sample forecast comparisons, the PVAR approach performs well against popular alternatives, especially at a short forecast horizon and relative to standard VAR forecasts based on aggregate economy‐wide data. Over longer forecast horizons, the accuracy of the PVAR model tends to decline relative to that of the univariate alternatives, while it remains high relative to the aggregate VAR forecasts. We show that these findings are driven by the event of the Great Recession. Our qualitative results carry over to a multi‐country extension of the PVAR approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mutations in the gene encoding GlyT2 (SLC6A5) define a presynaptic component of human startle disease

Hyperekplexia is a human neurological disorder characterized by an excessive startle response and is typically caused by missense and nonsense mutations in the gene encoding the inhibitory glycine receptor (GlyR) alpha1 subunit (GLRA1). Genetic heterogeneity has been confirmed in rare sporadic cases, with mutations affecting other postsynaptic glycinergic proteins including the GlyR beta subunit (GLRB), gephyrin (GPHN) and RhoGEF collybistin (ARHGEF9). However, many individuals diagnosed with sporadic hyperekplexia do not carry mutations in these genes. Here we show that missense, nonsense and frameshift mutations in SLC6A5 (ref. 8), encoding the presynaptic glycine transporter 2 (GlyT2), also cause hyperekplexia. Individuals with mutations in SLC6A5 present with hypertonia, an exaggerated startle response to tactile or acoustic stimuli, and life-threatening neonatal apnea episodes. SLC6A5 mutations result in defective subcellular GlyT2 localization, decreased glycine uptake or both, with selected mutations affecting predicted glycine and Na+ binding sites.