Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion poll

The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern‐recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Biotechnology regulation: rules for freed organisms planned

The Environmental Protection Agency is preparing to regulate the biotechnology industry, claiming authority under the provisions of the Federal Toxic Substances Control Act (TOSCA) and the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA). In the agency's view, the products of recombinant DNA techniques can be compared to new chemicals or pesticides, both of which fall under EPA jurisdiction. Although a legal challenge to EPA's authority in this area is expected from industry, the agency hopes to issue its first set of draft regulations in early 1984.     

Heat Transfer Enhancement Due to Marangoni Flow Around Moving Bubbles During Nucleate Boiling

Introduction Nucleate boiling has always been an important heat transfer mechanism in many fields, such as energy utilization, manufacturing processes, and chemical processing and nucleate boiling continues to find new applications in many new areas, such…     

Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms

Today's surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms--such as corals and some plankton--will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean-carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a 'business-as-usual' scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.     

Rabbit abundance relative to rainfall and plant production in northern Chihuahuan Desert grassland and shrubland habitats

Rabbit abundance patterns in the North American Southwest are poorly known, particularly relative to the potentially important influences of rainfall and plant production. We conducted a 10-year study on the comparative densities of black-tailed jackrabbits ( Lepus californicus ) and desert cottontail rabbits ( Sylvilagus audubonii ) in relation to annual rainfall and plant production in both black grama ( Bouteloua eriopoda ) grassland and creosotebush ( Larrea tridentata ) shrubland habitats in the northern Chihuahuan Desert. We found that both species of rabbits were more abundant in black grama grassland than in creosotebush shrubland and that plant production was positively correlated with rainfall at both habitats. However, rabbit densities were not positively correlated with rainfall or plant production in either habitat. In fact, both species of rabbits exhibited gradual, multiyear changes in abundance rather than the patterns of high annual variation observed in desert rodent communities. Our findings of no significant relationship between plant production and rabbit densities indicate that rabbit abundance in the northern Chihuahuan Desert may not be strongly regulated by short-term, bottom-up effects of annual variation in plant production. Long-term trends indicate that other factors such as disease or predation may be equally or more important. We suggest that future research evaluate both top-down and bottom-up influences to elucidate the temporal dynamics of Chihuahuan Desert rabbit abundance. Se conoce poco sobre los patrones de abundancia de conejos desérticos en el suroeste de Norte America, particularmente en relación con las influencias potencialmente importantes de la precipitación y la producción de plantas. Llevamos a cabo una investigación de diez años sobre la densidad relativa de la liebre de California ( Lepus californicus ) y el conejo cola de algodón ( Sylvilagus audubonii ) en los hábitats tanto de pradera de grama negra ( Bouteloua eriopoda ) como de matorral de gobernadora ( Larrea tridentata ) en el norte del Desierto Chihuahuense, en relación con la precipitación y la producción anuales. Encontramos que ambas especies de conejo fueron más abundantes en la pradera de grama negra que en el matorral de gobernadora, y que la producción de plantas estuvo correlacionada positivamente con la precipitación en ambos hábitats. Sin embargo, las densidades de conejos no estuvieron correlacionadas positivamente con la precipitación o con la producción de plantas en ninguno de los dos hábitats. De hecho, en cuanto a la fluctuación de su abundancia, las dos especies de conejo exhibieron tendencias graduales a lo largo de varios años, en comparación con los patrones de gran variación anual que se han observado en comunidades de roedores desérticos. La falta de una relación significativa entre la producción de plantas y la abundancia de conejos, indica que la abundancia de conejos en el norte del Desierto Chihuahuense no está fuertemente regulada por los efectos ascendentes a corto plazo de la variación anual en la producción de plantas. Los cambios reflejados en las tendencias a largo plazo indican que otros factores como las enfermedades o la depredación pueden ser de igual o mayor importancia, y sugerimos que investigaciones futuras deberán evaluar tanto las influencias ascendentes como las descendentes para entender las dinámicas temporales en la abundancia de conejos del Desierto Chihuahuense.     

Winter macroinvertebrate communities in two montane Wyoming streams

Macroinvertebrate communities were examined on 4 winter dates over a 4-yr period in 2 high-altitude Rocky Mountain streams to document overwintering assemblages potentially experiencing spring acid pulses. Taxa richness values were comparable to other published lists for alpine and montane stream systems despite the fact that most literature reflected summer collections. Mean benthic density ranged from 1406 to 19,734 organisms/m 2 , and drift rates ranged from 0 to 1740 organisms/100 m 3 . Benthic collections showed higher taxa richness than drift collections while the Ephemeroptera and Plecoptera occurred in greater proportions in drift than in benthos. The Nemouridae (Plecoptera), Ephemerellidae and Heptageniidae (Ephemeroptera), Chironomidae (Diptera), and Hydracarina were the numerically dominant taxa in benthic collections. Grazer/scrapers and shredder/detritivores were always the numerically dominant functional feeding groups at all sites, composing 60-90% of the benthos. Predators, constituting approximately 15% of the community, occurred in the same relative proportion at all sites on all dates. Winter macroinvertebrate communities in these low-order, montane streams exhibit high taxonomic richness and benthic densities as great as lower-elevation mountain streams in the West.     

Regional assessment of wadable streams in Idaho, USA

There has been a resurgence in applying bioassessment techniques for evaluating and monitoring the biological integrity of stream ecosystms. In all cases biological metrics have been refined to account for regional variation in aquatic habitats and fauna. This study evaluated environmental and macroinvertebrate properties for wadable streams in 3 major ecoregions of Idaho: Northern Basin and Range, Snake River Plain, and Northern Rocky Mountain. These 3 ecoregions constitute > 80% of the land area in Idaho. Reference streams were delineated from test streams in each ecoregion using standard habitat assessment protocols. (Plafkin et al. 1989). Multiple discriminant analysis effectively determined habitat (quantified measures) and macroinvertebrate differences between reference and test streams within ecoregions, although the results suggested that quantifiable habitat measures (e.g., water chemistry and nutrients) and biotic measures based on taxonomic groups (e.g., % Elmidae) improved the discriminatory power of evaluation procedures. Our results support the contention of a multi-metric approach for assessing differences among streams within an ecoregion. Lastly, individual metrics differed in their importance for evaluating stream condition among ecoregions, further emphasizing the importance of regionally stratifying metric selection or scoring procedures.