The impact on the performance of growth curve models of changes in parameter re-estimation period and other factors

A simulation model of a real electricity supply undertaking was used to provide a financial performance measure for growth curve forecasting models. The impact on financial performance was determined when changes were made in (1) the method of estimating the model parameters, (2) the period between re-estimations, (3) the growth curve fitted and (4) the amount of smoothing of the demand time-series. The response to variation of the parameter review period was found to behave surprisingly, in that it exhibited different signs for two different estimation methods. Changes in re-estimation period explained somewhat more of the variation in performance than did a change in growth curve. Correcting the demand series for conditions which were known to be abnormal improved performance.     

Learned kin recognition cues in a social bird

In many cooperatively breeding birds, kin selection has an important role in the evolution and maintenance of social behaviour, and 'helpers' can maximize indirect fitness gains by preferentially allocating care to close relatives. Although there is evidence for kin-biased helping behaviour in several species, the mechanism of kin recognition underlying this behaviour is poorly understood. Vocalizations are the most commonly used cues in avian recognition systems, but the effectiveness of vocal signals as reliable recognition cues must depend on how they are acquired. However, there have been no experimental studies of the development of vocal recognition cues in cooperative birds; indeed, the ontogeny of all bird vocalizations other than song is poorly known in any species. Here, we show that cooperatively breeding long-tailed tits (Aegithalos caudatus) can discriminate between kin and non-kin according to the individual-specific characteristics of contact calls, and show experimentally that individuals learn these calls from provisioning adults during the nestling period. Finally, we show that the pattern of cooperative behaviour in this species is consistent with the use of recognition cues learned through association.     

Human immunodeficiency viruses: SIV infection in wild gorillas

Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes troglodytes) from west central Africa are recognized as the reservoir of simian immunodeficiency viruses (SIVcpzPtt) that have crossed at least twice to humans: this resulted in the AIDS pandemic (from human immunodeficiency virus HIV-1 group M) in one instance and infection of just a few individuals in Cameroon (by HIV-1 group N) in another. A third HIV-1 lineage (group O) from west central Africa also falls within the SIVcpzPtt radiation, but the primate reservoir of this virus has not been identified. Here we report the discovery of HIV-1 group O-like viruses in wild gorillas.     

Molecular characterization of Ph1 as a major chromosome pairing locus in polyploid wheat

The foundation of western civilization owes much to the high fertility of bread wheat, which results from the stability of its polyploid genome. Despite possessing multiple sets of related chromosomes, hexaploid (bread) and tetraploid (pasta) wheat both behave as diploids at meiosis. Correct pairing of homologous chromosomes is controlled by the Ph1 locus. In wheat hybrids, Ph1 prevents pairing between related chromosomes. Lack of Ph1 activity in diploid relatives of wheat suggests that Ph1 arose on polyploidization. Absence of phenotypic variation, apart from dosage effects, and the failure of ethylmethane sulphonate treatment to yield mutants, indicates that Ph1 has a complex structure. Here we have localized Ph1 to a 2.5-megabase interstitial region of wheat chromosome 5B containing a structure consisting of a segment of subtelomeric heterochromatin that inserted into a cluster of cdc2-related genes after polyploidization. The correlation of the presence of this structure with Ph1 activity in related species, and the involvement of heterochromatin with Ph1 (ref. 6) and cdc2 genes with meiosis, makes the structure a good candidate for the Ph1 locus.