How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?

In this paper, we propose a framework to evaluate the subjective density forecasts of macroeconomists using micro data from the euro area Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). A key aspect of our analysis is the use of evaluation measures which take account of the entire predictive densities, and not just the probability assigned to the outcome that occurs. Overall, we find considerable heterogeneity in the performance of the surveyed densities at the individual level. However, it is hard to exploit this heterogeneity and improve aggregate performance by trimming poorly performing forecasters in real time. Relative to a set of simple benchmarks, density performance is somewhat better for GDP growth than for inflation, although in the former case it diminishes substantially with the forecast horizon. In addition, we report evidence of an improvement in the relative performance of expert densities during the recent period of macroeconomic volatility. However, our analysis also reveals clear evidence of overconfidence or neglected risks in expert probability assessments, as reflected in frequent occurrences of events which are assigned a zero probability. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Activation of the AXL kinase causes resistance to EGFR-targeted therapy in lung cancer

Human non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLCs) with activating mutations in EGFR frequently respond to treatment with EGFR-targeted tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs), such as erlotinib, but responses are not durable, as tumors acquire resistance. Secondary mutations in EGFR (such as T790M) or upregulation of the MET kinase are found in over 50% of resistant tumors. Here, we report increased activation of AXL and evidence for epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) in multiple in vitro and in vivo EGFR-mutant lung cancer models with acquired resistance to erlotinib in the absence of the EGFR p.Thr790Met alteration or MET activation. Genetic or pharmacological inhibition of AXL restored sensitivity to erlotinib in these tumor models. Increased expression of AXL and, in some cases, of its ligand GAS6 was found in EGFR-mutant lung cancers obtained from individuals with acquired resistance to TKIs. These data identify AXL as a promising therapeutic target whose inhibition could prevent or overcome acquired resistance to EGFR TKIs in individuals with EGFR-mutant lung cancer.     

Genome-wide copy number variation study associates metabotropic glutamate receptor gene networks with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a common, heritable neuropsychiatric disorder of unknown etiology. We performed a whole-genome copy number variation (CNV) study on 1,013 cases with ADHD and 4,105 healthy children of European ancestry using 550,000 SNPs. We evaluated statistically significant findings in multiple independent cohorts, with a total of 2,493 cases with ADHD and 9,222 controls of European ancestry, using matched platforms. CNVs affecting metabotropic glutamate receptor genes were enriched across all cohorts (P = 2.1 × 10(-9)). We saw GRM5 (encoding glutamate receptor, metabotropic 5) deletions in ten cases and one control (P = 1.36 × 10(-6)). We saw GRM7 deletions in six cases, and we saw GRM8 deletions in eight cases and no controls. GRM1 was duplicated in eight cases. We experimentally validated the observed variants using quantitative RT-PCR. A gene network analysis showed that genes interacting with the genes in the GRM family are enriched for CNVs in ～10% of the cases (P = 4.38 × 10(-10)) after correction for occurrence in the controls. We identified rare recurrent CNVs affecting glutamatergic neurotransmission genes that were overrepresented in multiple ADHD cohorts.     

PNPLA1 mutations cause autosomal recessive congenital ichthyosis in golden retriever dogs and humans

Ichthyoses comprise a heterogeneous group of genodermatoses characterized by abnormal desquamation over the whole body, for which the genetic causes of several human forms remain unknown. We used a spontaneous dog model in the golden retriever breed, which is affected by a lamellar ichthyosis resembling human autosomal recessive congenital ichthyoses (ARCI), to carry out a genome-wide association study. We identified a homozygous insertion-deletion (indel) mutation in PNPLA1 that leads to a premature stop codon in all affected golden retriever dogs. We subsequently found one missense and one nonsense mutation in the catalytic domain of human PNPLA1 in six individuals with ARCI from two families. Further experiments highlighted the importance of PNPLA1 in the formation of the epidermal lipid barrier. This study identifies a new gene involved in human ichthyoses and provides insights into the localization and function of this yet uncharacterized member of the PNPLA protein family.     

Common variants near TARDBP and EGR2 are associated with susceptibility to Ewing sarcoma

Ewing sarcoma, a pediatric tumor characterized by EWSR1-ETS fusions, is predominantly observed in populations of European ancestry. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 401 French individuals with Ewing sarcoma, 684 unaffected French individuals and 3,668 unaffected individuals of European descent and living in the United States. We identified candidate risk loci at 1p36.22, 10q21 and 15q15. We replicated these loci in two independent sets of cases and controls. Joint analysis identified associations with rs9430161 (P = 1.4 × 10(-20); odds ratio (OR) = 2.2) located 25 kb upstream of TARDBP, rs224278 (P = 4.0 × 10(-17); OR = 1.7) located 5 kb upstream of EGR2 and, to a lesser extent, rs4924410 at 15q15 (P = 6.6 × 10(-9); OR = 1.5). The major risk haplotypes were less prevalent in Africans, suggesting that these loci could contribute to geographical differences in Ewing sarcoma incidence. TARDBP shares structural similarities with EWSR1 and FUS, which encode RNA binding proteins, and EGR2 is a target gene of EWSR1-ETS. Variants at these loci were associated with expression levels of TARDBP, ADO (encoding cysteamine dioxygenase) and EGR2.     

A transition zone complex regulates mammalian ciliogenesis and ciliary membrane composition

Mutations affecting ciliary components cause ciliopathies. As described here, we investigated Tectonic1 (Tctn1), a regulator of mouse Hedgehog signaling, and found that it is essential for ciliogenesis in some, but not all, tissues. Cell types that do not require Tctn1 for ciliogenesis require it to localize select membrane-associated proteins to the cilium, including Arl13b, AC3, Smoothened and Pkd2. Tctn1 forms a complex with multiple ciliopathy proteins associated with Meckel and Joubert syndromes, including Mks1, Tmem216, Tmem67, Cep290, B9d1, Tctn2 and Cc2d2a. Components of this complex co-localize at the transition zone, a region between the basal body and ciliary axoneme. Like Tctn1, loss of Tctn2, Tmem67 or Cc2d2a causes tissue-specific defects in ciliogenesis and ciliary membrane composition. Consistent with a shared function for complex components, we identified a mutation in TCTN1 that causes Joubert syndrome. Thus, a transition zone complex of Meckel and Joubert syndrome proteins regulates ciliary assembly and trafficking, suggesting that transition zone dysfunction is the cause of these ciliopathies.     

Common variation at 10p12.31 near MLLT10 influences meningioma risk

To identify susceptibility loci for meningioma, we conducted a genome-wide association study of 859 affected individuals (cases) and 704 controls with validation in two independent sample sets totaling 774 cases and 1,764 controls. We identified a new susceptibility locus for meningioma at 10p12.31 (MLLT10, rs11012732, odds ratio = 1.46, P(combined) = 1.88 × 10(-14)). This finding advances our understanding of the genetic basis of meningioma development.