Henderson‐Trending of Macroeconomic Variables and Forecasting Accuracy

Using a structural time‐series model, the forecasting accuracy of a wide range of macroeconomic variables is investigated. Specifically of importance is whether the Henderson moving‐average procedure distorts the underlying time‐series properties of the data for forecasting purposes. Given the weight of attention in the literature to the seasonal adjustment process used by various statistical agencies, this study hopes to address the dearth of literature on ‘trending’ procedures. Forecasts using both the trended and untrended series are generated. The forecasts are then made comparable by ‘detrending’ the trended forecasts, and comparing both series to the realised values. Forecasting accuracy is measured by a suite of common methods, and a test of significance of difference is applied to the respective root mean square errors. It is found that the Henderson procedure does not lead to deterioration in forecasting accuracy in Australian macroeconomic variables on most occasions, though the conclusions are very different between the one‐step‐ahead and multi‐step‐ahead forecasts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Roost sites used by Sandhill Crane staging along the Platte River, Nebraska

We assessed the influence of water depth, extent of unobstructed view, and human disturbance features on use of roost sites by Sandhill Cranes along the Platte River, Nebraska, during spring migratory stopover. Aerial photos taken near dawn were used to determine areas of flock use and habitat availability in four sample reaches, and measurements were made on the ground at flock roost areas. In general, depths of 1-13 cm were used by sandhill cranes in greater proportion than those available. Exposed sandbars and depths >20 cm were avoided, while depths of 14-19 cm were used in proportion to their availability. Sites 11-50 m from the nearest visual obstruction were used significantly greater than their availability, while sites 0-4 and >50 m from visual obstructions were avoided. Sandhill Cranes avoided sites near paved roads, gravel roads, single dwellings, and bridges when selecting roost sites; however, they did not appear to be disturbed by private roads, groups of residential buildings, gravel pits, railroads, or electrical transmission lines.     

Ecological comparison of sympatric populations of sand lizards ( Cophosaurus texanus and Callisaurus draconoides )

Sympatric populations of Cophosaurus texanus and Callisaurus draconoides were periodically sampled from March 1973 through April 1974 at Burro Creek, Mohave County, Arizona. Callisaurus were also sampled at Rock Valley, Nye County, Nevada. Sex ratios were skewed in favor of males in the adult Cophosaurus but were equal in both adult populations of Callisaurus. Both species became sexually mature as yearlings. Mean clutch sizes were 3.55 (±0.83) for Cophosaurus, and 4.25 (±1.08) and 5.07 (±1.33) for Callisaurus at Burro Creek and Rock Valley respectively. Evidence of multiple clutches was exhibited by both species. Egg weight/body weight ratios for both species and clutch weight/body weight ratios for Cophosaurus were notably smaller than previously reported. At Burro Creek both species were highly insectivorus, with orthopterans comprising the largest food group of each. Niche overlap for food was high at the ordinal level, but at the familial level it is apparent that Callisaurus probably fed in the more xeric areas of the riparian habitat. No differences were found in the temperature responses of these two lizards. However, minor temporal separations and substantial spatial partitioning were observed. Callisaurus preferred sandy open areas, while Cophosaurus preferred the presence of some rocks and boulders.     

Reproductive pair correlations and the clustering of organisms.

Clustering of organisms can be a consequence of social behaviour, or of the response of individuals to chemical and physical cues. Environmental variability can also cause clustering: for example, marine turbulence transports plankton and produces chlorophyll concentration patterns in the upper ocean. Even in a homogeneous environment, nonlinear interactions between species can result in spontaneous pattern formation. Here we show that a population of independent, random-walking organisms ('brownian bugs'), reproducing by binary division and dying at constant rates, spontaneously aggregates. Using an individual-based model, we show that clusters form out of spatially homogeneous initial conditions without environmental variability, predator-prey interactions, kinesis or taxis. The clustering mechanism is reproductively driven-birth must always be adjacent to a living organism. This clustering can overwhelm diffusion and create non-poissonian correlations between pairs (parent and offspring) or organisms, leading to the emergence of patterns.     

Testing for the usefulness of forecasts

Ashley (Journal of Forecasting 1983; 2 (3): 211–223) proposes a criterion (known as Ashley's index) to judge whether the external macroeconomic variables are well forecast to serve as explanatory variables in forecasting models, which is crucial for policy makers. In this article, we try to extend Ashley's work by providing three testing procedures, including a ratio‐based test, a difference‐based test, and the Bayesian approach. The Bayesian approach has the advantage of allowing the flexibility of adapting all possible information content within a decision‐making environment such as the change of variable's definition due to the evolving system of national accounts. We demonstrate the proposed methods by applying six macroeconomic forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Researchers or practitioners can thus formally test whether the external information is helpful. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Soil water and temperature response to prescribed burning

Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} Prescribed burning of Texas wintergrass ( Stipa leucotricha Trin. & Rupr.) communities reduced soil water contents for two to six months, and additional reductions occurred when the subsequent crop of cool-season grasses and forbs began growth. These soil water reductions occurred despite reduced plant production following burning. Soil water reductions were greater at 15 to 45 cm depths than in the upper 15 cm and greater following spring burning. Soil temperatures were higher on burned plots for most of the first year following burning.        

Stable transmission of reversible modifications: maintenance of epigenetic information through the cell cycle

Even though every cell in a multicellular organism contains the same genes, the differing spatiotemporal expression of these genes determines the eventual phenotype of a cell. This means that each cell type contains a specific epigenetic program that needs to be replicated through cell divisions, along with the genome, in order to maintain cell identity. The stable inheritance of these programs throughout the cell cycle relies on several epigenetic mechanisms. In this review, DNA methylation and histone methylation by specific histone lysine methyltransferases (KMT) and the Polycomb/Trithorax proteins are considered as the primary mediators of epigenetic inheritance. In addition, non-coding RNAs and nuclear organization are implicated in the stable transfer of epigenetic information. Although most epigenetic modifications are reversible in nature, they can be stably maintained by self-recruitment of modifying protein complexes or maintenance of these complexes or structures through the cell cycle.