Combining multivariate volatility forecasts using weighted losses

The ability to improve out-of-sample forecasting performance by combining forecasts is well established in the literature. This paper advances this literature in the area of multivariate volatility forecasts by developing two combination weighting schemes that exploit volatility persistence to emphasise certain losses within the combination estimation period. A comprehensive empirical analysis of the out-of-sample forecast performance across varying dimensions, loss functions, sub-samples and forecast horizons show that new approaches significantly outperform their counterparts in terms of statistical accuracy. Within the financial applications considered, significant benefits from combination forecasts relative to the individual candidate models are observed. Although the more sophisticated combination approaches consistently rank higher relative to the equally weighted approach, their performance is statistically indistinguishable given the relatively low power of these loss functions. Finally, within the applications, further analysis highlights how combination forecasts dramatically reduce the variability in the parameter of interest, namely the portfolio weight or beta.     

Debunking material induction

In this paper, we present an explanatory objection to Norton's material theory of induction, as applied to predictive inferences. According to the objection we present, there is an explanatory disconnect between our beliefs about the future and the relevant future facts. We argue that if we recognize such a disconnect, we are no longer rationally entitled to our future beliefs.     

A new species and the phylogeny of the South American genus Gromphas Brullé, 1837 (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Scarabaeinae: Phanaeini)

Gromphas jardim Cupello & Vaz-de-Mello sp. nov. is described from Bolivia and Central Brazil and is endemic to the biogeographic province of Rondônia. It resembles Gromphas amazonica and Gromphas inermis, but is distinguished primarily by the pattern of pronotal granulation and the form of the apical tubercle of male protibiae, which is modified in a tapered spur. Based on 31 morphological characters, a phylogenetic analysis returned a single most parsimonious tree where Gromphas is monophyletic and has the following internal topology: ((G. aeruginosa + G. lemoinei) (G. dichroa (G. inermis (G. amazonica + G. jardim)))).     

On-chip natural assembly of silicon photonic bandgap crystals.

Photonic bandgap crystals can reflect light for any direction of propagation in specific wavelength ranges. This property, which can be used to confine, manipulate and guide photons, should allow the creation of all-optical integrated circuits. To achieve this goal, conventional semiconductor nanofabrication techniques have been adapted to make photonic crystals. A potentially simpler and cheaper approach for creating three-dimensional periodic structures is the natural assembly of colloidal microspheres. However, this approach yields irregular, polycrystalline photonic crystals that are difficult to incorporate into a device. More importantly, it leads to many structural defects that can destroy the photonic bandgap. Here we show that by assembling a thin layer of colloidal spheres on a silicon substrate, we can obtain planar, single-crystalline silicon photonic crystals that have defect densities sufficiently low that the bandgap survives. As expected from theory, we observe unity reflectance in two crystalline directions of our photonic crystals around a wavelength of 1.3 micrometres. We also show that additional fabrication steps, intentional doping and patterning, can be performed, so demonstrating the potential for specific device applications.     

Between meaning culture and presence effects: contemporary biomedical objects as a challenge to museums

The acquisition and display of material artefacts is the raison d’être of museums. But what constitutes a museum artefact? Contemporary medicine (biomedicine) is increasingly producing artefacts that do not fit the traditional museological understanding of what constitutes a material, tangible artefact. Museums today are therefore caught in a paradox. On the one hand, medical science and technologies are having an increasing pervasive impact on the way contemporary life is lived and understood and is therefore a central part of the contemporary world. On the other hand, the objects involved in medical diagnostics and therapies are becoming increasingly invisible and intangible and therefore seem to have no role to play as artefacts in a museum context. Consequently, museums are at risk of becoming alienated from an increasingly important part of contemporary society. This essay elaborates the paradox by employing Gumbrecht’s (2004) distinction between ‘presence’ and ‘meaning’.     

Programmable and autonomous computing machine made of biomolecules.

Devices that convert information from one form into another according to a definite procedure are known as automata. One such hypothetical device is the universal Turing machine, which stimulated work leading to the development of modern computers. The Turing machine and its special cases, including finite automata, operate by scanning a data tape, whose striking analogy to information-encoding biopolymers inspired several designs for molecular DNA computers. Laboratory-scale computing using DNA and human-assisted protocols has been demonstrated, but the realization of computing devices operating autonomously on the molecular scale remains rare. Here we describe a programmable finite automaton comprising DNA and DNA-manipulating enzymes that solves computational problems autonomously. The automaton's hardware consists of a restriction nuclease and ligase, the software and input are encoded by double-stranded DNA, and programming amounts to choosing appropriate software molecules. Upon mixing solutions containing these components, the automaton processes the input molecule via a cascade of restriction, hybridization and ligation cycles, producing a detectable output molecule that encodes the automaton's final state, and thus the computational result. In our implementation 1012 automata sharing the same software run independently and in parallel on inputs (which could, in principle, be distinct) in 120 microl solution at room temperature at a combined rate of 109 transitions per second with a transition fidelity greater than 99.8%, consuming less than 10-10 W.     

Superconductivity in CaCuO2 as a result of field-effect doping.

Understanding the doping mechanisms in the simplest superconducting copper oxide-the infinite-layer compound ACuO2 (where A is an alkaline earth metal)-is an excellent way of investigating the pairing mechanism in high-transition-temperature (high-Tc) superconductors more generally. Gate-induced modulation of the carrier concentration to obtain superconductivity is a powerful means of achieving such understanding: it minimizes the effects of potential scattering by impurities, and of structural modifications arising from chemical dopants. Here we report the transport properties of thin films of the infinite-layer compound CaCuO2 using field-effect doping. At high hole- and electron-doping levels, superconductivity is induced in the nominally insulating material. Maximum values of Tc of 89 K and 34 K are observed respectively for hole- and electron-type doping of around 0.15 charge carriers per CuO2. We can explore the whole doping diagram of the CuO2 plane while changing only a single electric parameter, the gate voltage.     

Visualizing single-molecule diffusion in mesoporous materials

Periodic mesoporous materials formed through the cooperative self-assembly of surfactants and framework building blocks can assume a variety of structures, and their widely tuneable properties make them attractive hosts for numerous applications. Because the molecular movement in the pore system is the most important and defining characteristic of porous materials, it is of interest to learn about this behaviour as a function of local structure. Generally, individual fluorescent dye molecules can be used as molecular beacons with which to explore the structure of--and the dynamics within--these porous hosts, and single-molecule fluorescence techniques provide detailed insights into the dynamics of various processes, ranging from biology to heterogeneous catalysis. However, optical microscopy methods cannot directly image the mesoporous structure of the host system accommodating the diffusing molecules, whereas transmission electron microscopy provides detailed images of the porous structure, but no dynamic information. It has therefore not been possible to 'see' how molecules diffuse in a real nanoscale pore structure. Here we present a combination of electron microscopic mapping and optical single-molecule tracking experiments to reveal how a single luminescent dye molecule travels through linear or strongly curved sections of a mesoporous channel system. In our approach we directly correlate porous structures detected by transmission electron microscopy with the diffusion dynamics of single molecules detected by optical microscopy. This opens up new ways of understanding the interactions of host and guest.