Can We Predict the Financial Markets Based on Google's Search Queries?

We look into the interaction of Google's search queries and several aspects of international equity markets. Using a novel methodology for selecting words and a vector autoregressive modeling approach, we study whether the search queries of finance‐related words can have an impact on returns, volatility of returns and traded volume in four different English‐speaking countries. We identify several words whose search frequency is associated with changes in the dependent variables. In particular, we find that increases in search queries including the word stock predict increased volatility and decreased index returns over the next week. On top of that, we investigate the performance of a market‐timing strategy based on the search frequency of this word and benchmark it against random words from the Word‐Net database and a naive buy‐and‐hold strategy. The results of this empirical application are positive and particularly stronger during the global crisis of 2009. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A decision rule to minimize daily capital charges in forecasting value‐at‐risk

Under the Basel II Accord, banks and other authorized deposit‐taking institutions (ADIs) have to communicate their daily risk estimates to the monetary authorities at the beginning of the trading day, using a variety of value‐at‐risk (VaR) models to measure risk. Sometimes the risk estimates communicated using these models are too high, thereby leading to large capital requirements and high capital costs. At other times, the risk estimates are too low, leading to excessive violations, so that realized losses are above the estimated risk. In this paper we analyze the profit‐maximizing problem of an ADI subject to capital requirements under the Basel II Accord as ADIs have to choose an optimal VaR reporting strategy that minimizes daily capital charges. Accordingly, we suggest a dynamic communication and forecasting strategy that responds to violations in a discrete and instantaneous manner, while adapting more slowly in periods of no violations. We apply the proposed strategy to Standard & Poor's 500 Index and show there can be substantial savings in daily capital charges, while restricting the number of violations to within the Basel II penalty limits. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Co-occurrence of three Aristolochia-feeding Papilionids (Archon apollinus,Zerynthia polyxena and Zerynthia cerisy) in Greek Thrace

Comparative studies of co-occurring species using overlapping resources may help in understanding the mechanisms supporting biotic diversity in species-rich regions, such as the Mediterranean region of Europe. Three Papilionidae butterflies, Archon apollinus, Zerynthia cerisy and Zerynthia polyxena, develop on Aristolochia plants and co-occur in Greek Thrace. We used mark–recapture to describe adult demography and dispersal, and searched for eggs and larvae to assess host plants and microhabitat preferences. Adult flight timing followed a sequence from earliest A. apollinus, through Z. polyxena to late Z. cerisy; this was more prominent in 2010 (warm early spring) than in 2011 (cold delayed spring). Population densities were highest for A. apollinus and lowest for Z. cerisy, whereas dispersal ability followed a reverse pattern. Adults of all three species crossed distances > 3 km and used all habitat types present. Four Aristolochia host plants were used at the study locality: small Aristolochia pallida, intermediate Aristolochia rotunda and Aristolochia hirta, and bulky, late-sprouting Aristolochia clematitis. Both A. apollinus and Z. polyxena used all four Aristolochia species, the former preferring Aristolochia rotunda and Aristolochia hirta, the latter Aristolochia rotunda and Aristolochia pallida. Zerynthia cerisy did not use the early-growing Aristolochia pallida while frequently using the late-growing Aristolochia clematitis. Further parameters affecting oviposition were biotope and canopy closure: early A. apollinus tolerated shady sites but late Z. cerisy avoided them. The simultaneous use of several host plants differing in phenology and habitat requirements, combined with rather high dispersal ability, arguably buffers the butterflies’ population dynamics against yearly variation in weather, while allowing efficient occupation of the diverse Mediterranean landscapes. The regional habitat diversity, created during millennia of human activity, is currently threatened by land abandonment, which may diminish the resource base for the studied butterflies.     

Prediction in context: On the comparative epistemic merit of predictive success

The considerations set out in the paper are intended to suggest that in practical contexts predictive power does not play the outstanding roles sometimes accredited to it in an epistemic framework. Rather, predictive power is part of a network of other merits and achievements. Predictive power needs to be judged differently according to the specific conditions that apply. First, predictions need to be part of an explanatory framework if they are supposed to guide actions reliably. Second, in scientific expertise, the demand for accurate predictions is replaced with the objective of specifying a robust corridor of estimates. Finally, it is highly uncertain to predict the success of research projects. The overall purpose of the paper is to enlarge the debate about predictions by addressing specifically the roles of predictions in application-oriented research.     

Cell-free expression and in meso crystallisation of an integral membrane kinase for structure determination

Membrane proteins are key elements in cell physiology and drug targeting, but getting a high-resolution structure by crystallographic means is still enormously challenging. Novel strategies are in big demand to facilitate the structure determination process that will ultimately hasten the day when sequence information alone can provide a three-dimensional model. Cell-free or in vitro expression enables rapid access to large quantities of high-quality membrane proteins suitable for an array of applications. Despite its impressive efficiency, to date only two membrane proteins produced by the in vitro approach have yielded crystal structures. Here, we have analysed synergies of cell-free expression and crystallisation in lipid mesophases for generating an X-ray structure of the integral membrane enzyme diacylglycerol kinase to 2.28-Å resolution. The quality of cellular and cell-free-expressed kinase samples has been evaluated systematically by comparing (1) spectroscopic properties, (2) purity and oligomer formation, (3) lipid content and (4) functionality. DgkA is the first membrane enzyme crystallised based on cell-free expression. The study provides a basic standard for the crystallisation of cell-free-expressed membrane proteins and the methods detailed here should prove generally useful and contribute to accelerating the pace at which membrane protein structures are solved.     

Nesprin interchain associations control nuclear size

Nesprins-1/-2/-3/-4 are nuclear envelope proteins, which connect nuclei to the cytoskeleton. The largest nesprin-1/-2 isoforms (termed giant) tether F-actin through their N-terminal actin binding domain (ABD). Nesprin-3, however, lacks an ABD and associates instead to plectin, which binds intermediate filaments. Nesprins are integrated into the outer nuclear membrane via their C-terminal KASH-domain. Here, we show that nesprin-1/-2 ABDs physically and functionally interact with nesprin-3. Thus, both ends of nesprin-1/-2 giant are integrated at the nuclear surface: via the C-terminal KASH-domain and the N-terminal ABD-nesprin-3 association. Interestingly, nesprin-2 ABD or KASH-domain overexpression leads to increased nuclear areas. Conversely, nesprin-2 mini (contains the ABD and KASH-domain but lacks the massive nesprin-2 giant rod segment) expression yields smaller nuclei. Nuclear shrinkage is further enhanced upon nesprin-3 co-expression or microfilament depolymerization. Our findings suggest that multivariate intermolecular nesprin interactions with the cytoskeleton form a lattice-like filamentous network covering the outer nuclear membrane, which determines nuclear size.     

An eicosanoid-centric view of atherothrombotic risk factors

Cardiovascular disease is the foremost cause of morbidity and mortality in the Western world. Atherosclerosis followed by thrombosis (atherothrombosis) is the pathological process underlying most myocardial, cerebral, and peripheral vascular events. Atherothrombosis is a complex and heterogeneous inflammatory process that involves interactions between many cell types (including vascular smooth muscle cells, endothelial cells, macrophages, and platelets) and processes (including migration, proliferation, and activation). Despite a wealth of knowledge from many recent studies using knockout mouse and human genetic studies (GWAS and candidate approach) identifying genes and proteins directly involved in these processes, traditional cardiovascular risk factors (hyperlipidemia, hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus, sex, and age) remain the most useful predictor of disease. Eicosanoids (20 carbon polyunsaturated fatty acid derivatives of arachidonic acid and other essential fatty acids) are emerging as important regulators of cardiovascular disease processes. Drugs indirectly modulating these signals, including COX-1/COX-2 inhibitors, have proven to play major roles in the atherothrombotic process. However, the complexity of their roles and regulation by opposing eicosanoid signaling, have contributed to the lack of therapies directed at the eicosanoid receptors themselves. This is likely to change, as our understanding of the structure, signaling, and function of the eicosanoid receptors improves. Indeed, a major advance is emerging from the characterization of dysfunctional naturally occurring mutations of the eicosanoid receptors. In light of the proven and continuing importance of risk factors, we have elected to focus on the relationship between eicosanoids and cardiovascular risk factors.     

Dominant missense mutations in ABCC9 cause Cantú syndrome

Cantú syndrome is characterized by congenital hypertrichosis, distinctive facial features, osteochondrodysplasia and cardiac defects. By using family-based exome sequencing, we identified a de novo mutation in ABCC9. Subsequently, we discovered novel dominant missense mutations in ABCC9 in 14 of the 16 individuals with Cantú syndrome examined. The ABCC9 protein is part of an ATP-dependent potassium (K(ATP)) channel that couples the metabolic state of a cell with its electrical activity. All mutations altered amino acids in or close to the transmembrane domains of ABCC9. Using electrophysiological measurements, we show that mutations in ABCC9 reduce the ATP-mediated potassium channel inhibition, resulting in channel opening. Moreover, similarities between the phenotype of individuals with Cantú syndrome and side effects from the K(ATP) channel agonist minoxidil indicate that the mutations in ABCC9 result in channel opening. Given the availability of ABCC9 antagonists, our findings may have direct implications for the treatment of individuals with Cantú syndrome.     

Mutations in NMNAT1 cause Leber congenital amaurosis and identify a new disease pathway for retinal degeneration

Leber congenital amaurosis (LCA) is a blinding retinal disease that presents within the first year after birth. Using exome sequencing, we identified mutations in the nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) synthase gene NMNAT1 encoding nicotinamide mononucleotide adenylyltransferase 1 in eight families with LCA, including the family in which LCA was originally linked to the LCA9 locus. Notably, all individuals with NMNAT1 mutations also have macular colobomas, which are severe degenerative entities of the central retina (fovea) devoid of tissue and photoreceptors. Functional assays of the proteins encoded by the mutant alleles identified in our study showed that the mutations reduce the enzymatic activity of NMNAT1 in NAD biosynthesis and affect protein folding. Of note, recent characterization of the slow Wallerian degeneration (Wld(s)) mouse model, in which prolonged axonal survival after injury is observed, identified NMNAT1 as a neuroprotective protein when ectopically expressed. Our findings identify a new disease mechanism underlying LCA and provide the first link between endogenous NMNAT1 dysfunction and a human nervous system disorder.