Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Karyotypes of seven species of bats from Thailand (Chiroptera,Mammalia)

Summary Karyotypes ofMyotis siligorensis, Myotis mystacinus, Pipistrellus pulveratus, Tylonycteris robustula, Miniopterus schreibersi fuliginosus, Hipposideros fulvus andAselliscus stoliczkanus from Thailand are investigated.Acknowledgment. The authors are very grateful to Dr N. Ratanawarabhan, Mrs S. Sittilert, P. Noonpakdee and S. Kuanchalern of Thailand Institute of Scientific and Technological Research for their valuable advice and assistance during our field survey in Thailand.     

Mutation of the matrix metalloproteinase 2 gene (MMP2) causes a multicentric osteolysis and arthritis syndrome.

The inherited osteolyses or 'vanishing bone' syndromes are a group of rare disorders of unknown etiology characterized by destruction and resorption of affected bones. The multicentric osteolyses are notable for interphalangeal joint erosions that mimic severe juvenile rheumatoid arthritis (OMIMs 166300, 259600, 259610 and 277950). We recently described an autosomal recessive form of multicentric osteolysis with carpal and tarsal resorption, crippling arthritic changes, marked osteoporosis, palmar and plantar subcutaneous nodules and distinctive facies in a number of consanguineous Saudi Arabian families. We localized the disease gene to 16q12-21 by using members of these families for a genome-wide search for homozygous-by-descent microsatellite markers. Haplotype analysis narrowed the critical region to a 1.2-cM region that spans the gene encoding MMP-2 (gelatinase A, collagenase type IV; (ref. 3). We detected no MMP2 enzymatic activity in the serum or fibroblasts of affected family members. We identified two family-specific homoallelic MMP2 mutations: R101H and Y244X. The nonsense mutation effects a deletion of the substrate-binding and catalytic sites and the fibronectin type II-like and hemopexin/TIMP2 binding domains. Based on molecular modeling, the missense mutation disrupts hydrogen bond formation within the highly conserved prodomain adjacent to the catalytic zinc ion.     

Why the Afshar experiment does not refute complementarity

A modified version of Young's experiment by Shahriar Afshar demonstrates that, prior to what appears to be a “which-way” measurement, an interference pattern exists. Afshar has claimed that this result constitutes a violation of the Principle of Complementarity. This paper discusses the implications of this experiment and considers how Cramer's Transactional Interpretation easily accommodates the result. It is also shown that the Afshar experiment is analogous in key respects to a spin one-half particle prepared as “spin up along x”, subjected to a nondestructive confirmation of that preparation, and post-selected in a specific state of spin along z. The terminology “which-way” or “which-slit” is critiqued; it is argued that this usage by both Afshar and his critics is misleading and has contributed to confusion surrounding the interpretation of the experiment. Nevertheless, it is concluded that Bohr would have had no more problem accounting for the Afshar result than he would in accounting for the aforementioned pre- and post-selection spin experiment, in which the particle's preparation state is confirmed by a nondestructive measurement prior to post-selection. In addition, some new inferences about the interpretation of delayed choice experiments are drawn from the analysis.