Effect of regressor forecast error on the variance of regression forecasts

It is well understood that the standard formulation for the variance of a regression‐model forecast produces interval estimates that are too narrow, principally because it ignores regressor forecast error. While the theoretical problem has been addressed, there has not been an adequate explanation of the effect of regressor forecast error, and the empirical literature has supplied a disparate variety of bits and pieces of evidence. Most business‐forecasting software programs continue to supply only the standard formulation. This paper extends existing analysis to derive and evaluate large‐sample approximations for the forecast error variance in a single‐equation regression model. We show how these approximations substantially clarify the expected effects of regressor forecast error. We then present a case study, which (a) demonstrates how rolling out‐of‐sample evaluations can be applied to obtain empirical estimates of the forecast error variance, (b) shows that these estimates are consistent with our large‐sample approximations and (c) illustrates, for ‘typical’ data, how seriously the standard formulation can understate the forecast error variance. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exome sequencing supports a de novo mutational paradigm for schizophrenia

Despite its high heritability, a large fraction of individuals with schizophrenia do not have a family history of the disease (sporadic cases). Here we examined the possibility that rare de novo protein-altering mutations contribute to the genetic component of schizophrenia by sequencing the exomes of 53 sporadic cases, 22 unaffected controls and their parents. We identified 40 de novo mutations in 27 cases affecting 40 genes, including a potentially disruptive mutation in DGCR2, a gene located in the schizophrenia-predisposing 22q11.2 microdeletion region. A comparison to rare inherited variants indicated that the identified de novo mutations show a large excess of non-synonymous changes in schizophrenia cases, as well as a greater potential to affect protein structure and function. Our analyses suggest a major role for de novo mutations in schizophrenia as well as a large mutational target, which together provide a plausible explanation for the high global incidence and persistence of the disease.     

Subspecific origin and haplotype diversity in the laboratory mouse

Here we provide a genome-wide, high-resolution map of the phylogenetic origin of the genome of most extant laboratory mouse inbred strains. Our analysis is based on the genotypes of wild-caught mice from three subspecies of Mus musculus. We show that classical laboratory strains are derived from a few fancy mice with limited haplotype diversity. Their genomes are overwhelmingly Mus musculus domesticus in origin, and the remainder is mostly of Japanese origin. We generated genome-wide haplotype maps based on identity by descent from fancy mice and show that classical inbred strains have limited and non-randomly distributed genetic diversity. In contrast, wild-derived laboratory strains represent a broad sampling of diversity within M. musculus. Intersubspecific introgression is pervasive in these strains, and contamination by laboratory stocks has played a role in this process. The subspecific origin, haplotype diversity and identity by descent maps can be visualized using the Mouse Phylogeny Viewer (see URLs).     

Susceptibility loci for intracranial aneurysm in European and Japanese populations

Stroke is the world's third leading cause of death. One cause of stroke, intracranial aneurysm, affects approximately 2% of the population and accounts for 500,000 hemorrhagic strokes annually in mid-life (median age 50), most often resulting in death or severe neurological impairment. The pathogenesis of intracranial aneurysm is unknown, and because catastrophic hemorrhage is commonly the first sign of disease, early identification is essential. We carried out a multistage genome-wide association study (GWAS) of Finnish, Dutch and Japanese cohorts including over 2,100 intracranial aneurysm cases and 8,000 controls. Genome-wide genotyping of the European cohorts and replication studies in the Japanese cohort identified common SNPs on chromosomes 2q, 8q and 9p that show significant association with intracranial aneurysm with odds ratios 1.24-1.36. The loci on 2q and 8q are new, whereas the 9p locus was previously found to be associated with arterial diseases, including intracranial aneurysm. Associated SNPs on 8q likely act via SOX17, which is required for formation and maintenance of endothelial cells, suggesting a role in development and repair of the vasculature; CDKN2A at 9p may have a similar role. These findings have implications for the pathophysiology, diagnosis and therapy of intracranial aneurysm.     

PLA2G6, encoding a phospholipase A2, is mutated in neurodegenerative disorders with high brain iron

Neurodegenerative disorders with high brain iron include Parkinson disease, Alzheimer disease and several childhood genetic disorders categorized as neuroaxonal dystrophies. We mapped a locus for infantile neuroaxonal dystrophy (INAD) and neurodegeneration with brain iron accumulation (NBIA) to chromosome 22q12-q13 and identified mutations in PLA2G6, encoding a calcium-independent group VI phospholipase A2, in NBIA, INAD and the related Karak syndrome. This discovery implicates phospholipases in the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative disorders with iron dyshomeostasis.     

B Lymphocytes in obesity-related adipose tissue inflammation and insulin resistance

Obesity-related insulin resistance is a chronic inflammatory condition that often gives rise to type 2 diabetes (T2D). Much evidence supports a role for pro-inflammatory T cells and macrophages in promoting local inflammation in tissues such as visceral adipose tissue (VAT) leading to insulin resistance. More recently, B cells have emerged as an additional critical player in orchestrating these processes. B cells infiltrate VAT and display functional and phenotypic changes in response to diet-induced obesity. B cells contribute to insulin resistance by presenting antigens to T cells, secreting inflammatory cytokines, and producing pathogenic antibodies. B cell manipulation represents a novel approach to the treatment of obesity-related insulin resistance and potentially to the prevention of T2D. This review summarizes the roles of B cells in governing VAT inflammation and the mechanisms by which these cells contribute to altered glucose homeostasis in insulin resistance.