What does the tail of the distribution of current stock prices tell us about future economic activity?

This paper proposes three leading indicators of economic conditions estimated using current stock returns. The assumption underlying our approach is that current asset prices reflect all the available information about future states of economy. Each of the proposed indicators is related to the tail of the cross‐sectional distribution of stock returns. The results show that the leading indicators have strong correlation with future economic conditions and usually make better out‐of‐sample predictions than two traditional competitors (random walk and the average of previous observations). Furthermore, quantile regressions reveal that the leading indicators have strong connections with low future economic activity.     

Comparing Several Parametric and Nonparametric Approaches to Time Series Clustering: A Simulation Study

One key point in cluster analysis is to determine a similarity or dissimilarity measure between data objects. When working with time series, the concept of similarity can be established in different ways. In this paper, several non-parametric statistics originally designed to test the equality of the log-spectra of two stochastic processes are proposed as dissimilarity measures between time series data. Their behavior in time series clustering is analyzed throughout a simulation study, and compared with the performance of several model-free and model-based dissimilarity measures. Up to three different classification settings were considered: (i) to distinguish between stationary and non-stationary time series, (ii) to classify different ARMA processes and (iii) to classify several non-linear time series models. As it was expected, the performance of a particular dissimilarity metric strongly depended on the type of processes subjected to clustering. Among all the measures studied, the nonparametric distances showed the most robust behavior.     

Reversed flow of Atlantic deep water during the Last Glacial Maximum

The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the Atlantic Ocean is considered to be one of the most important components of the climate system. This is because its warm surface currents, such as the Gulf Stream, redistribute huge amounts of energy from tropical to high latitudes and influence regional weather and climate patterns, whereas its lower limb ventilates the deep ocean and affects the storage of carbon in the abyss, away from the atmosphere. Despite its significance for future climate, the operation of the MOC under contrasting climates of the past remains controversial. Nutrient-based proxies and recent model simulations indicate that during the Last Glacial Maximum the convective activity in the North Atlantic Ocean was much weaker than at present. In contrast, rate-sensitive radiogenic (231)Pa/(230)Th isotope ratios from the North Atlantic have been interpreted to indicate only minor changes in MOC strength. Here we show that the basin-scale abyssal circulation of the Atlantic Ocean was probably reversed during the Last Glacial Maximum and was dominated by northward water flow from the Southern Ocean. These conclusions are based on new high-resolution data from the South Atlantic Ocean that establish the basin-scale north to south gradient in (231)Pa/(230)Th, and thus the direction of the deep ocean circulation. Our findings are consistent with nutrient-based proxies and argue that further analysis of (231)Pa/(230)Th outside the North Atlantic basin will enhance our understanding of past ocean circulation, provided that spatial gradients are carefully considered. This broader perspective suggests that the modern pattern of the Atlantic MOC-with a prominent southerly flow of deep waters originating in the North Atlantic-arose only during the Holocene epoch.     

Reconciling the temperature dependence of respiration across timescales and ecosystem types

Ecosystem respiration is the biotic conversion of organic carbon to carbon dioxide by all of the organisms in an ecosystem, including both consumers and primary producers. Respiration exhibits an exponential temperature dependence at the subcellular and individual levels, but at the ecosystem level respiration can be modified by many variables including community abundance and biomass, which vary substantially among ecosystems. Despite its importance for predicting the responses of the biosphere to climate change, it is as yet unknown whether the temperature dependence of ecosystem respiration varies systematically between aquatic and terrestrial environments. Here we use the largest database of respiratory measurements yet compiled to show that the sensitivity of ecosystem respiration to seasonal changes in temperature is remarkably similar for diverse environments encompassing lakes, rivers, estuaries, the open ocean and forested and non-forested terrestrial ecosystems, with an average activation energy similar to that of the respiratory complex (approximately 0.65?electronvolts (eV)). By contrast, annual ecosystem respiration shows a substantially greater temperature dependence across aquatic (approximately 0.65?eV) versus terrestrial ecosystems (approximately 0.32?eV) that span broad geographic gradients in temperature. Using a model derived from metabolic theory, these findings can be reconciled by similarities in the biochemical kinetics of metabolism at the subcellular level, and fundamental differences in the importance of other variables besides temperature—such as primary productivity and allochthonous carbon inputs—on the structure of aquatic and terrestrial biota at the community level.     

Late survival of Neanderthals at the southernmost extreme of Europe

The late survival of archaic hominin populations and their long contemporaneity with modern humans is now clear for southeast Asia. In Europe the extinction of the Neanderthals, firmly associated with Mousterian technology, has received much attention, and evidence of their survival after 35 kyr bp has recently been put in doubt. Here we present data, based on a high-resolution record of human occupation from Gorham's Cave, Gibraltar, that establish the survival of a population of Neanderthals to 28 kyr bp. These Neanderthals survived in the southernmost point of Europe, within a particular physiographic context, and are the last currently recorded anywhere. Our results show that the Neanderthals survived in isolated refuges well after the arrival of modern humans in Europe.     

Global landscape of protein complexes in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Identification of protein-protein interactions often provides insight into protein function, and many cellular processes are performed by stable protein complexes. We used tandem affinity purification to process 4,562 different tagged proteins of the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Each preparation was analysed by both matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry to increase coverage and accuracy. Machine learning was used to integrate the mass spectrometry scores and assign probabilities to the protein-protein interactions. Among 4,087 different proteins identified with high confidence by mass spectrometry from 2,357 successful purifications, our core data set (median precision of 0.69) comprises 7,123 protein-protein interactions involving 2,708 proteins. A Markov clustering algorithm organized these interactions into 547 protein complexes averaging 4.9 subunits per complex, about half of them absent from the MIPS database, as well as 429 additional interactions between pairs of complexes. The data (all of which are available online) will help future studies on individual proteins as well as functional genomics and systems biology.     

Application of the Search Conference methodology to planning in higher education

An adaptation of a First-World planning method was successfully used to help solve the problematic situation confronted by a Third-World higher education institution. The Search Conference is a method which enables the necessary conditions for a set of individuals to engage into a comprehensive process of reflection and design over a specific social system or domain. While preserving its essential characteristics, the Search Conference has been adapted to respond to a Third-World organizational environment. The realization of a “massive” conference in a Mexican public university triggered a participative strategic planning process of long-lasting consequences. The university community designed a desired future for the institution which became the guiding force to mobilize it in the agreed-upon direction. They also learned how to plan and carry on projects participatively. Some tangible results are the identification of students' regional demand, with the consequent creation of four new bachelors degrees and two masters degrees; the creation of a program to support those faculty members who would be willing to undertake masters and doctoral studies in outside prestigious universities; the increase in enrollment as a result of combined actions; and the opening of two extension centers off campus to improve the external community's involvement. In conclusion, a change of attitude emerged from the conference, which has been instrumental for the continuing involvement of the internal community in the creation of a new university agreeable to all.     

Defective prelamin A processing and muscular and adipocyte alterations in Zmpste24 metalloproteinase-deficient mice

The mouse ortholog of human FACE-1, Zmpste24, is a multispanning membrane protein widely distributed in mammalian tissues and structurally related to Afc1p/ste24p, a yeast metalloproteinase involved in the maturation of fungal pheromones. Disruption of the gene Zmpste24 caused severe growth retardation and premature death in homozygous-null mice. Histopathological analysis of the mutant mice revealed several abnormalities, including dilated cardiomyopathy, muscular dystrophy and lipodystrophy. These alterations are similar to those developed by mice deficient in A-type lamin, a major component of the nuclear lamina, and phenocopy most defects observed in humans with diverse congenital laminopathies. In agreement with this finding, Zmpste24-null mice are defective in the proteolytic processing of prelamin A. This deficiency in prelamin A maturation leads to the generation of abnormalities in nuclear architecture that probably underlie the many phenotypes observed in both mice and humans with mutations in the lamin A gene. These results indicate that prelamin A is a specific substrate for Zmpste24 and demonstrate the usefulness of genetic approaches for identifying the in vivo substrates of proteolytic enzymes.     

An asymptotic-giant-branch star in the progenitor system of a type Ia supernova

Stars that explode as supernovae come in two main classes. A type Ia supernova is recognized by the absence of hydrogen and the presence of elements such as silicon and sulphur in its spectrum; this class of supernova is thought to produce the majority of iron-peak elements in the Universe. They are also used as precise 'standard candles' to measure the distances to galaxies. While there is general agreement that a type Ia supernova is produced by an exploding white dwarf star, no progenitor system has ever been directly observed. Significant effort has gone into searching for circumstellar material to help discriminate between the possible kinds of progenitor systems, but no such material has hitherto been found associated with a type Ia supernova. Here we report the presence of strong hydrogen emission associated with the type Ia supernova SN2002ic, indicating the presence of large amounts of circumstellar material. We infer from this that the progenitor system contained a massive asymptotic-giant-branch star that lost several solar masses of hydrogen-rich gas before the supernova explosion.