Signal Diffusion Mapping: Optimal Forecasting with Time‐Varying Lags

We introduce a new methodology for forecasting, which we call signal diffusion mapping. Our approach accommodates features of real‐world financial data which have been ignored historically in existing forecasting methodologies. Our method builds upon well‐established and accepted methods from other areas of statistical analysis. We develop and adapt those models for use in forecasting. We also present tests of our model on data in which we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The concept of intelligibility in modern physics (1948)

This is an English translation of Paul Feyerabend's earliest extant essay “Der Begriff der Verständlichkeit in der modernen Physik” (1948). In it, Feyerabend defends positivism as a progressive framework for scientific research in certain stages of scientific development. He argues that in physics visualizability (Anschaulichkeit) and intelligibility (Verständlichkeit) are time-conditioned concepts: what is deemed visualizable in the development of physical theories is relative to a specific historical context and changes over time. He concludes that from time to time the abandonment of visualizability is crucial for progress in physics, as it is conducive to major theory change, illustrating the point on the basis of advances in atomic theory.     

Early life history of the sheepnose (Plethobasus cyphyus) (Mollusca: Bivalvia: Unionoida)

Managing a rare species can be improved with knowledge of its natural history. The sheepnose (Plethobasus cyphyus) is a freshwater mussel recently listed by the US as federally endangered. We used standard methods to study P. cyphyus brooding behaviour, host fishes in the laboratory and under natural conditions, and glochidial morphology. We monitored a population of P. cyphyus in the Chippewa River, WI during spring and summer 2007–2009 and 2011 and found brooding animals between mid-May and early August. Gravid individuals ranged between 5 and 27 yr (mean age ± 1 s.d. = 13 ± 4 yr). Plethobasus cyphyus brooded glochidia in outer gills, which varied in colour from red, orange, pink, cream, or white. We observed mature glochidia more commonly in individuals with cream or white gills and these glochidia were released in a clear, adhesive, mucus matrix. In laboratory trials we found several minnow and topminnow species (29 spp.) served as productive suitable native hosts. The mean number of juvenile mussels released per cyprinid per day was significantly higher for trials conducted at 22–25°C compared with those at 18–20°C, and 83% of trials conducted at 18–20°C using suitable host species produced no juveniles. Glochidia had a unique outline and shell morphometrics that distinguished P. cyphyus from seven other Chippewa River mussel species that produce similar sized glochidia. Using morphometrics we determined that mimic shiners (Notropis volucellus) were natural hosts for P. cyphyus, round pigtoe (Pleurobema sintoxia), and Wabash pigtoe (Fusconaia flava). Releasing mucus-bound glochidia has evolved in a variety of mussel species and may be more common than is currently realized. Our data show that P. cyphyus is a cyprinid host specialist, and propagation efforts for this species can be strengthened through improved access to mature glochidia by using females with cream-coloured gills and increased juvenile production through warmer fish holding temperatures.     

Morphology of tube-like threads related to Limnochares aquatica (L., 1758) (Acariformes: Hydrachnidia: Limnocharidae) in the laboratory

Water mites Limnochares aquatica (L., 1758) during maintenance in the laboratory for a long period of time in constant conditions periodically produced certain whitish flocculent material consisting of long rigid unbranched tube-like threads 1.3 ± 0.3 µm in diameter crossing freely. These threads were studied using light-optical as well as transmission electron microscopical and scanning electron microscopical methods. Microbiological staining was also applied to the threads to exclude their bacterial or fungal origin. The thread wall is built of fine fibrils arranged at different angles to the long axis of threads that is reflected in a certain stratification of the wall. Threads are mostly hollow or may contain electron-dense homogeneous material. No cell components are present in the thread composition. Numerous dermal glands with their small slit-like orifice scattered throughout the mite body surface are thought to produce these threads. Most probably the thread formation is a reaction of mites to stress under laboratory conditions, and this is expected to be a type of defensive reaction.     

Diversity and dispersal history of the talitrids (Crustacea: Amphipoda: Talitridae) of Bermuda

Five taxa of talitrid amphipods were found in the archipelago of Bermuda, of which three were recorded there for the first time. Four of these are supralittoral wrack generalists: Platorchestia monodi BOLD:AAB3402, (a unique Molecular Operational Taxonomic Unit according to the Barcode Index Number system), a related species recognized by molecular methods, Platorchestia platensis BOLD:AAA2949, Mexorchestia carpenteri carpenteri BOLD:AAC1491 and Tethorchestia antillensis; and one a terrestrial leaf-litter generalist: Talitroides alluaudi. A key is provided to discriminate between the formally described talitrids of Bermuda. Dispersal mechanisms from the American continent to Bermuda were considered for all taxa based on species distributions along the North American Atlantic coast and also investigated by molecular methods, using genetic population differentiation and haplotype network analysis based on the barcode region of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene. For P. monodi BOLD:AAB3402 the genetic results suggest that some dispersal events occurred before human colonization of Bermuda but are equivocal about the source population and therefore the direction of dispersal. Some very recent synanthropic dispersal is possible with this species. For the other two species studied genetically, P. platensis BOLD:AAA2949 and M. c. carpenteri BOLD:AAC1491, the small population samples analysed support dispersal to Bermuda from the American mainland, before human occupation of Bermuda, although the available sample size was limited for these species. The available limited direct, non-genetic evidence supports synanthropic transport for Talitroides alluaudi. Platorchestia monodi BOLD:AAB3402 is found in the same wrack habitat as P. platensis BOLD:AAA2949 on Bermuda, apparently without interbreeding. No evidence was found that driftwood specialist talitrids had become established in Bermuda.     

New insights on the external features of egg capsules and embryo development in the squid Loligo vulgaris

The embryonic development of the squid Loligo vulgaris was observed from 183 egg masses collected from special devices deployed throughout Cabrera National Park (Baleares Islands, western Mediterranean Sea). Sequence alignment analysis of the cytochrome oxidase I gene revealed that all embryos belonged to L. vulgaris. In total, 549 egg capsules were examined. Viable egg capsules (n = 420) were classified into one of five maturation stages according to the primary external features. The length of the viable egg capsules varied between 40 and 170 mm, and increased with embryonic development. The non-viable capsules (n = 129) were categorized into four groups: I (Ginger root), non-viable II and III, and empty egg capsule (IV). The percentage of non-viable capsules (i.e. grades I, II and III) was 92.25%. Empty capsules accounted for 7.75% of the total non-viable egg capsules. Embryonic development was classified into a second scale of eight stages. Egg capsule stage and embryonic stage were significantly related (n = 420; p < 0.001), facilitating the determination of the embryo developmental phase based on the outward appearance of the egg capsules. The embryo development stage based on the external features of the egg capsules might constitute an innovative tool for in situ embryological data collection. This new method is neither time consuming nor invasive, and could be helpful in fishing cruises, for scuba diving visual census in natural habitats and for laboratory culture. Slight variability in the developmental embryonic stages within egg capsules from the same egg mass was identified. The origin of this asynchrony is discussed. Chronological appearance of organs was similar to that of the six loliginid species previously examined. However, some developmental changes in the timing or rate of events (heterochronies) were observed: Hoyle’s organ was formed earlier in L. vulgaris and the appearance of ventral chromatophores was slightly delayed (2 days) compared with the other species considered.