Natural history of the Lined Seedeater Sporophila lineola (Aves: Thraupidae) in southeastern Brazil

The Lined Seedeater (Sporophila lineola) is a migratory species that inhabits a variety of open habitats in South America. We studied the breeding biology and territorial behaviour of a colour-banded population of the species in the Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Campus Florestal (1–19,8808ºS, –44,4136ºW), during two breeding seasons (2014/2015 and 2015/2016), which spans from December to April. We monitored 74 nests of this species. The nest is a low cup supported between a fork. Nests are mainly built with grass stems and rootlets, with spider-web used to hold the material together and to bind the nest to its supporting plant. Females are solely responsible for nest building and incubation, which is synchronic, and also for feeding nestlings to a large extent. Males are responsible for defending the territory, which corresponds to a small portion of the home range restricted to the nest environs, and also feed the nestlings. Mean clutch size is two eggs (78% of nests monitored), with clutches of three (20.3%) and four (1.7%) eggs also observed. Eggs are whitish, covered with dark brown blotches and spots to a variable extent. Mean incubation period, considered as the period between the onset of incubation and hatching of the first egg, is 11 days. Nestling period, considered as the period between hatching of the first egg and fledging of the last young, is 10 days. During the first breeding season, the simple percentage of successful nests was 34.1%, while the Mayfield success was 29.8%, with slightly higher values observed during the second breeding season, with 39.4% and 35.7%, respectively. We recorded, for the first time, three cases of polygamy in the species. We also recorded breeding site fidelity for the first time in the species, with males returning to the same territory owned in a previous breeding season.     

Can We Predict the Financial Markets Based on Google's Search Queries?

We look into the interaction of Google's search queries and several aspects of international equity markets. Using a novel methodology for selecting words and a vector autoregressive modeling approach, we study whether the search queries of finance‐related words can have an impact on returns, volatility of returns and traded volume in four different English‐speaking countries. We identify several words whose search frequency is associated with changes in the dependent variables. In particular, we find that increases in search queries including the word stock predict increased volatility and decreased index returns over the next week. On top of that, we investigate the performance of a market‐timing strategy based on the search frequency of this word and benchmark it against random words from the Word‐Net database and a naive buy‐and‐hold strategy. The results of this empirical application are positive and particularly stronger during the global crisis of 2009. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Common variants at TRAF3IP2 are associated with susceptibility to psoriatic arthritis and psoriasis

Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is an inflammatory joint disease that is distinct from other chronic arthritides and which is frequently accompanied by psoriasis vulgaris (PsV) and seronegativity for rheumatoid factor. We conducted a genome-wide association study in 609 German individuals with PsA (cases) and 990 controls with replication in 6 European cohorts including a total of 5,488 individuals. We replicated PsA associations at HLA-C and IL12B and identified a new association at TRAF3IP2 (rs13190932, P = 8.56 × 10?1?). TRAF3IP2 was also associated with PsV in a German cohort including 2,040 individuals (rs13190932, P = 1.95 × 10?3). Sequencing of the exons of TRAF3IP2 identified a coding variant (p.Asp10Asn, rs33980500) as the most significantly associated SNP (P = 1.13 × 10?2?, odds ratio = 1.95). Functional assays showed reduced binding of this TRAF3IP2 variant to TRAF6, suggesting altered modulation of immunoregulatory signals through altered TRAF interactions as a new and shared pathway for PsA and PsV.     

Bias‐corrected bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive model: new alternatives with applications to tourism forecasting

This paper proposes the use of the bias‐corrected bootstrap for interval forecasting of an autoregressive time series with an arbitrary number of deterministic components. We use the bias‐corrected bootstrap based on two alternative bias‐correction methods: the bootstrap and an analytic formula based on asymptotic expansion. We also propose a new stationarity‐correction method, based on stable spectral factorization, as an alternative to Kilian's method exclusively used in past studies. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to compare small‐sample properties of prediction intervals. The results show that the bias‐corrected bootstrap prediction intervals proposed in this paper exhibit desirable small‐sample properties. It is also found that the bootstrap bias‐corrected prediction intervals based on stable spectral factorization are tighter and more stable than those based on Kilian's stationarity‐correction. The proposed methods are applied to interval forecasting for the number of tourist arrivals in Hong Kong. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Book Review: Current Perspectives in the History of Science in East Asia,edited by Y. S. Kim and F. Bray

In 1670, the Bolognese mathematician Pietro Mengoli published his Speculationi di musica, a highly original work attempting to found the mathematical study of music on the anatomy of the ear. His anatomy was idiosyncratic and his mathematics extraordinarily complex, and he proposed a unique double mechanism of hearing. He analysed in detail the supposed behaviour of the subtle part of the air inside the ear, and the patterns of strokes made on the eardrum by simultaneous sounds. Most strikingly, he divided the musical octave into a continuous set of regions which he colour-coded to show their effects on a listener. His work did not find its way into the mainstream of seventeenth-century mathematical studies of music, but when examined in its context it has the potential to shed light on that discipline, as well as being of considerable interest in its own right. Here, I focus on the anatomical and mathematical basis of Mengoli's work.     

Chemistry and meteorology, 1700–1825

In 1639–1640 Benedetto Castelli (1577–1643) wrote a treatise on the loadstone which is quite unlike any of its contemporaries. In it are the origins of the notion of elementary magnets sharing a common alignment, the idea that all materials are magnetic in different ways, and the first intimation of the conception of magnetic domains. Castelli did not publish his treatise. Nevertheless his work was noted during his life-time, and may have exerted an influence on the development of magnetic theory in the 17th century. The treatise was published in 1883. Since then, however, it has either been neglected or not appreciated. It deserves being rescued from the neglect of more than three centuries.     

Jean Méry (1645–1722) and his ideas on the foetal blood flow

We present an analysis, and first full English translation, of a paper by Kant entitled ‘Über die Vulcane im Monde’ (1785). Kant became interested in the question of whether the mountains of the Moon were extinct volcanoes. Stimulated by the work of Herschel, Aepinus, and others, he considered the appearance of the Moon's surface and the possibility of lunar vulcanism. From this, he was led to consider the structures of mountain ranges on the Earth, which he decided were non-volcanic in origin, being produced by eruptions of vapours from the interior of the Earth soon after it formed from an original ‘chaos’. Kant developed his ideas in such a way as to yield a characteristic eighteenth-century ‘theory of the Earth’. We argue that the empirical base of his theory was provided by knowledge of the mountain ranges of Bohemia and Moravia. Analogies based on observations of the Moon further assisted in the construction of the theory. But the reasoning ran in two directions: what was seen on the Moon was construed in terms of what Kant knew of the Earth's topography; and the Earth's topography was presumed to be analogous to that of the Moon, for both the Earth and the Moon (and indeed all heavenly bodies) supposedly had essentially similar origins. Kant's ideas of 1785 are related to his earlier writings of 1754, 1755, and 1756, and also to the lectures on physical geography that he presented at Königsberg.     

A bibliographical study of the introduction of Lavoisier's Traité élémentaire de chimie into Great Britain and America

As the most famous woman scientist of the twentieth century, there has been no shortage of books and articles on the life and career of Marie Curie (1867–1934). Her role as a director of a laboratory-based research school in the new scientific field of radioactivity, a field which embraced both chemistry and physics, however, has never been examined. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the question of research schools, and Morrell, Ravetz, Geison, and Klosterman, amongst others, have written on this subject. Using, in part, the methodology of Morrell, this paper investigates the role of Marie Curie as a school director in the Paris Faculty in the years 1907–14, examining the work and characteristics of her school and assessing her effectiveness as a director.     

Hormonal control of Sertoli cell metabolism regulates spermatogenesis

Hormonal regulation is essential to spermatogenesis. Sertoli cells (SCs) have functions that reach far beyond the physical support of germ cells, as they are responsible for creating the adequate ionic and metabolic environment for germ cell development. Thus, much attention has been given to the metabolic functioning of SCs. During spermatogenesis, germ cells are provided with suitable metabolic substrates, in a set of events mediated by SCs. Multiple signaling cascades regulate SC function and several of these signaling pathways are hormone-dependent and cell-specific. Within the seminiferous tubules, only SCs possess receptors for some hormones rendering them major targets for the hormonal signaling that regulates spermatogenesis. Although the mechanisms by which SCs fulfill their own and germ cells metabolic needs are mostly studied in vitro, SC metabolism is unquestionably a regulation point for germ cell development and the hormonal control of these processes is required for a normal spermatogenesis.