A multiple intelligent agent system for credit risk prediction via an optimization of localized generalization error with diversity

Company bankruptcies cost billions of dollars in losses to banks each year. Thus credit risk prediction is a critical part of a bank＇s loan approval decision process. Traditional financial models for credit risk prediction are no longer adequate for describing today＇s complex relationship between the financial health and potential bankruptcy of a company. In this work, a multiple classifier system （embedded in a multiple intelligent agent system） is proposed to predict the financial health of a company. In our model, each individual agent （classifier） makes a prediction on the likelihood of credit risk based on only partial information of the company. Each of the agents is an expert, but has limited knowledge （represented by features） about the company. The decisions of all agents are combined together to form a final credit risk prediction. Experiments show that our model out-performs other existing methods using the benchmarking Compustat American Corporations dataset.     

Liquid marbles.

The transport of a small amount of liquid on a solid is not a simple process, owing to the nature of the contact between the two phases. Setting a liquid droplet in motion requires non-negligible forces (because the contact-angle hysteresis generates a force opposing the motion), and often results in the deposition of liquid behind the drop. Different methods of levitation-electrostatic, electromagnetic, acoustic, or even simpler aerodynamic techniques-have been proposed to avoid this wetting problem, but all have proved to be rather cumbersome. Here we propose a simple alternative, which consists of encapsulating an aqueous liquid droplet with a hydrophobic powder. The resulting 'liquid marbles' are found to behave like a soft solid, and show dramatically reduced adhesion to a solid surface. As a result, motion can be generated using gravitational, electrical and magnetic fields. Moreover, because the viscous friction associated with motion is very small, we can achieve quick displacements of the droplets without any leaks. All of these features are of potential benefit in microfluidic applications, and also permit the study of a drop in a non-wetting situation-an issue of renewed interest following the recent achievement of super-hydrophobic substrates.     

How 'spin ice' freezes.

The large degeneracy of states resulting from the geometrical frustration of competing interactions is an essential ingredient of important problems in fields as diverse as magnetism, protein folding and neural networks. As first explained by Pauling, geometrical frustration of proton positions is also responsible for the unusual low-temperature thermodynamics of ice and its measured 'ground state' entropy. Recent work has shown that the geometrical frustration of ice is mimicked by Dy2Ti2O7, a site-ordered magnetic material in which the spins reside on a lattice of corner-sharing tetrahedra where they form an unusual magnetic ground state known as 'spin ice'. Here we identify a cooperative spin-freezing transition leading to the spin-ice ground state in Dy2Ti2O7. This transition is associated with a very narrow range of relaxation times, and represents a new form of spin-freezing. The dynamics are analogous to those associated with the freezing of protons in ice, and they provide a means through which to study glass-like behaviour and the consequences of frustration in the limit of low disorder.     

Annealing-induced interfacial toughening using a molecular nanolayer

Self-assembled molecular nanolayers (MNLs) composed of short organic chains and terminated with desired functional groups are attractive for modifying surface properties for a variety of applications. For example, organosilane MNLs are used as lubricants, in nanolithography, for corrosion protection and in the crystallization of biominerals. Recent work has explored uses of MNLs at thin-film interfaces, both as active components in molecular devices, and as passive layers, inhibiting interfacial diffusion, promoting adhesion and toughening brittle nanoporous structures. The relatively low stability of MNLs on surfaces at temperatures above 350-400 degrees C (refs 12, 13), as a result of desorption or degradation, limits the use of surface MNLs in high-temperature applications. Here we harness MNLs at thin-film interfaces at temperatures higher than the MNL desorption temperature to fortify copper-dielectric interfaces relevant to wiring in micro- and nano-electronic devices. Annealing Cu/MNL/SiO2 structures at 400-700 degrees C results in interfaces that are five times tougher than pristine Cu/SiO2 structures, yielding values exceeding approximately 20 J m(-2). Previously, similarly high toughness values have only been obtained using micrometre-thick interfacial layers. Electron spectroscopy of fracture surfaces and density functional theory modelling of molecular stretching and fracture show that toughening arises from thermally activated interfacial siloxane bridging that enables the MNL to be strongly linked to both the adjacent layers at the interface, and suppresses MNL desorption. We anticipate that our findings will open up opportunities for molecular-level tailoring of a variety of interfacial properties, at processing temperatures higher than previously envisaged, for applications where microlayers are not a viable option-such as in nanodevices or in thermally resistant molecular-inorganic hybrid devices.     

Functional specificity of local synaptic connections in neocortical networks

Neuronal connectivity is fundamental to information processing in the brain. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms of sensory processing requires uncovering how connection patterns between neurons relate to their function. On a coarse scale, long-range projections can preferentially link cortical regions with similar responses to sensory stimuli. But on the local scale, where dendrites and axons overlap substantially, the functional specificity of connections remains unknown. Here we determine synaptic connectivity between nearby layer 2/3 pyramidal neurons in vitro, the response properties of which were first characterized in mouse visual cortex in vivo. We found that connection probability was related to the similarity of visually driven neuronal activity. Neurons with the same preference for oriented stimuli connected at twice the rate of neurons with orthogonal orientation preferences. Neurons responding similarly to naturalistic stimuli formed connections at much higher rates than those with uncorrelated responses. Bidirectional synaptic connections were found more frequently between neuronal pairs with strongly correlated visual responses. Our results reveal the degree of functional specificity of local synaptic connections in the visual cortex, and point to the existence of fine-scale subnetworks dedicated to processing related sensory information.     

Is the valid species Synchaeta monopus Plate, 1889 (Rotifera: Monogononta) a product of preparation artefacts?

The morphology of soft-bodied rotifers, including those of Synchaeta spp, can be strongly affected by preparation artefacts including contraction and deformation. The long-standing, valid species Synchaeta monopus is known exclusively from ethanol- or formaldehyde-preserved material and no live specimens of it have ever been described. Although this alone is cause for concern, we could also reproduce unique characteristics diagnostic for this species (e.g. the swollen body and the rudimental foot) by subjecting specimens of Synchaeta pectinata to the preservation conditions under which it was first described. This proxy experiment and comparisons to other Synchaeta species indicate that literature occurrences of S. monopus likely represent preserved and deformed specimens of Synchaeta cecilia or other marine species of Synchaeta, thereby highlighting the importance of thorough morphological investigations of the habitus using live specimens and of features that are unaffected by preservation (e.g. the trophi). We therefore recommend that S. monopus be listed as a species inquirenda until topotypes are examined. Furthermore, in ecological studies including rotifers, where the examination of preserved material is often unavoidable, we stress that light-microscopical images of the habitus and trophi of the specimens minimally be included to facilitate independent verification of the species assignments.