Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

Are you growing systems thinking managers? Use a systems model to teach and practice organizational analysis and planning,management policy,and organizational development

This paper discusses the use of the Kast and Rosenzweig systems and contingency model for teaching and practice in organizational analysis and planning, management policy, and organizational development. The need for an organizational model for graduate students and field-based managers and executives is identified. The model is presented beginning with the Kast and Rosenzweig work, with integration of research by Daft, Schein, Trist, Deal and Kennedy, Ackoff, Delbecq, and Mintzberg. The teaching and practice uses of the model in four areas are presented, including organizational analysis and planning, management policy making, and organizational development. In each area case examples of the use of the model in teaching and practice are presented. Needs for future research and implications for the use of the model are discussed.     

Algorithmic compression of empirical data: reply to Twardy, Gardner, and Dowe

This discussion note responds to objections by Twardy, Gardner, and Dowe to my earlier claim that empirical data sets are algorithmically incompressible. Twardy, Gardner, and Dowe hold that many empirical data sets are compressible by Minimum Message Length technique and offer this as evidence that these data sets are algorithmically compressible. I reply that the compression achieved by Minimum Message Length technique is different from algorithmic compression. I conclude that Twardy, Gardner, and Dowe fail to establish that empirical data sets are algorithmically compressible.     

Goniothalamicin and annonacin: Bioactive acetogenins fromGoniothalamus giganteus (Annonaceae)

Summary Using brine shrimp lethality for activity-directed fractionation, goniothalamicin (I), a new tetrahydroxy-mono-tetrahydrofuran fatty acid -lactone (acetogenin), has been isolated from ethanolic extracts of the stem bark ofGoniothalamus giganteus Hook. f., Thomas (Annonaceae). This novel compound was found to be cytotoxic and insecticidal and inhibited the formation of crown gall tumors on potato discs. Annonacin (II), the only other reported mono-tetrahydrofuran acetogenin, was also isolated; the previously reported 9ASK (astrocytoma reversal) activity ofII was confirmed, andII is now also found to be weakly active against 3PS murine leukemia.     

Gigantecin: A novel antimitotic and cytotoxic acetogenin,with nonadjacent tetrahydrofuran rings,fromGoniothalamus giganteus (Annonaceae)

Summary Gigantecin (I), a novel tetrahydroxy-di-tetrahydrofuran fatty acid -lactone (acetogenin), was isolated from an ethanolic extract of the stem bark ofGoniothalamus giganteus Hook. f., Thomas (Annonaceae), by means of activity-directed fractionation (brine shrimp lethality test). This new compound is extremely cytotoxic to human tumor cells, inhibits crown gall tumors on potato discs, and is active in an assay designed to detect antimitotic agents (9 ASK).     

Studies on muscle fibre splitting in skeletal muscle

Summary Autoradiographic, stereological and histological studies have been carried out to determine the origin of muscle fibre splitting which supposedly occurs during muscle hypertrophy. The results obtained clearly indicate that the supposedly split fibres are a transient response probably derived from satellite cells and are not derived from pre-existing fibres by true splitting. Similarly, increases in muscle fibre size are not achieved by recruitment of satellite structures as indicated by lack of myonuclear recruitment.Acknowledgment. This work was carried out with the aid of a grant from the Medical Research Council of Great Britain. The authors are grateful for the excellent technical assistance of Miss H. Caulton, M.J. Wild and M. Fenner.