Testing Interval Forecasts: A GMM‐Based Approach

This paper proposes a new evaluation framework for interval forecasts. Our model‐free test can be used to evaluate interval forecasts and high‐density regions, potentially discontinuous and/or asymmetric. Using a simple J‐statistic, based on the moments defined by the orthonormal polynomials associated with the binomial distribution, this new approach presents many advantages. First, its implementation is extremely easy. Second, it allows for a separate test for unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage hypotheses. Third, Monte Carlo simulations show that for realistic sample sizes our GMM test has good small‐sample properties. These results are corroborated by an empirical application on SP500 and Nikkei stock market indexes. It confirms that using this GMM test leads to major consequences for the ex post evaluation of interval forecasts produced by linear versus nonlinear models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improving moving average trading rules with boosting and statistical learning methods

We present a system for combining the different types of predictions given by a wide category of mechanical trading rules through statistical learning methods (boosting, and several model averaging methods like Bayesian or simple averaging methods). Statistical learning methods supply better out‐of‐sample results than most of the single moving average rules in the NYSE Composite Index from January 1993 to December 2002. Moreover, using a filter to reduce trading frequency, the filtered boosting model produces a technical strategy which, although it is not able to overcome the returns of the buy‐and‐hold (B&H) strategy during rising periods, it does overcome the B&H during falling periods and is able to absorb a considerable part of falls in the market. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting for the LCD monitor market

The TFT‐LCD (thin‐film transistor–liquid crystal display) industry is one of the key global industries with products that have high clock speed. In this research, the LCD monitor market is considered for an empirical study on hierarchical forecasting (HF). The proposed HF methodology consists of five steps. First, the three hierarchical levels of the LCD monitor market are identified. Second, several exogenously driven factors that significantly affect the demand for LCD monitors are identified at each level of product hierarchy. Third, the three forecasting techniques—regression analysis, transfer function, and simultaneous equations model—are combined to forecast future demand at each hierarchical level. Fourth, various forecasting approaches and disaggregating proportion methods are adopted to obtain consistent demand forecasts at each hierarchical level. Finally, the forecast errors with different forecasting approaches are assessed in order to determine the best forecasting level and the best forecasting approach. The findings show that the best forecast results can be obtained by using the middle‐out forecasting approach. These results could guide LCD manufacturers and brand owners on ways to forecast future market demands. Copyright 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What everybody should know about the rat genome and its online resources

It has been four years since the original publication of the draft sequence of the rat genome. Five groups are now working together to assemble, annotate and release an updated version of the rat genome. As the prevailing model for physiology, complex disease and pharmacological studies, there is an acute need for the rat's genomic resources to keep pace with the rat's prominence in the laboratory. In this commentary, we describe the current status of the rat genome sequence and the plans for its impending 'upgrade'. We then cover the key online resources providing access to the rat genome, including the new SNP views at Ensembl, the RefSeq and Genes databases at the US National Center for Biotechnology Information, Genome Browser at the University of California Santa Cruz and the disease portals for cardiovascular disease and obesity at the Rat Genome Database.     

Creating ‘Rhizomatic Systems’ for Understanding Complexity in Organizations

The article describes and demonstrates the use of a new research proposal for understanding the complexity in organizations in terms of a Deleuzian sense of an event. It creates the rhizome metaphor that allows the emergence of different ways of systems thinking, a legitimate challenge to the Modernist’s orthodoxy. For Deleuze and Guattari, micropolitics are the essence of what we call ‘rhizomatic systems.’ It is this concept of the organization, as a rhizome or rhizomatic systems that we want to focus from ‘problem solving’ in a real-world situation to the process of problematization, that is, the making or appreciating a series of events in the problematizing fields. The paper draws on the research experience in which participatory action research was carried out in a Korean distribution company. The participatory learning process happened to create a series of events in which ‘time-related research’ was conducted in order to facilitate the process of problematization within the organization.

Reproductive pair correlations and the clustering of organisms.

Clustering of organisms can be a consequence of social behaviour, or of the response of individuals to chemical and physical cues. Environmental variability can also cause clustering: for example, marine turbulence transports plankton and produces chlorophyll concentration patterns in the upper ocean. Even in a homogeneous environment, nonlinear interactions between species can result in spontaneous pattern formation. Here we show that a population of independent, random-walking organisms ('brownian bugs'), reproducing by binary division and dying at constant rates, spontaneously aggregates. Using an individual-based model, we show that clusters form out of spatially homogeneous initial conditions without environmental variability, predator-prey interactions, kinesis or taxis. The clustering mechanism is reproductively driven-birth must always be adjacent to a living organism. This clustering can overwhelm diffusion and create non-poissonian correlations between pairs (parent and offspring) or organisms, leading to the emergence of patterns.     

Construction of protograph LDPC codes with circular generator matrices

The application of protograph low density parity check(LDPC) codes involves the encoding complexity problem.Since the generator matrices are dense,and if the positions of "1" s are irregularity,the encoder needs to store every "1" of the generator matrices by using huge chip area.In order to solve this problem,we need to design the protograph LDPC codes with circular generator matrices.A theorem concerning the circulating property of generator matrices of nonsingular protograph LDPC codes is proposed.The circulating property of generator matrix of nonsingular protograph LDPC codes can be obtained from the corresponding quasi-cyclic parity check matrix.This paper gives a scheme of constructing protograph LDPC codes with circulating generator matrices,and it reveals that the fast encoding algorithm of protograph LDPC codes has lower encoding complexity under the condition of the proposed theorem.Simulation results in additive white Gaussian noise(AWGN) channels show that the bit error rate(BER) performance of the designed codes based on the proposed theorem is much better than that of GB20600 LDPC codes and Tanner LDPC codes.     

Birds of a Feather Protest Together: Theorizing Self-Organizing Political Protests with Flock Theory

The current research theorizes decentralized and self-organized political protests via flock theory (Rosen 2002), a theory of emergent self-organization in communicative human interaction. Flock theory draws from a theoretical basis of emergence and self-organizing systems, and is presented as a theory of decentralized communication structures. Focusing on the optimization of decentralized networks and roadmap based coordination of organizationally homopholous foci; the current theory poses a model of human interaction that captures the potentially egalitarian effects of cooperative evolution and collective action. Case studies of two separate decentralized political protests against Korean government and FARC are offered as evidences of such phenomena.     

香港室内氡水平及其与建筑物表面氡析出率的关系

本文报导用活性炭盒吸附方法对香港室内氡浓度的测量结果及其浓度分布规律。对室内氡浓度与建筑物表面氡析出率的关系进行了分析研究。证实室内空气中的氡主要来源于建材中的镭,而氡浓度水平只决定于室内建筑物表面氡的析出率及通风状况。