On the limitations of comparing mean square forecast errors

Linear models are invariant under non-singular, scale-preserving linear transformations, whereas mean square forecast errors (MSFEs) are not. Different rankings may result across models or methods from choosing alternative yet isomorphic representations of a process. One approach can dominate others for comparisons in levels, yet lose to another for differences, to a second for cointegrating vectors and to a third for combinations of variables. The potential for switches in ranking is related to criticisms of the inadequacy of MSFE against encompassing criteria, which are invariant under linear transforms and entail MSFE dominance. An invariant evaluation criterion which avoids misleading outcomes is examined in a Monte Carlo study of forecasting methods.     

灰铸铁的应力屈服曲面及其三维热弹塑性应力解析

对原有的灰铸铁件应力屈服曲面进行了合理的简化,使其在理论上合理,工程应用上更为方便。建立了灰铸铁件三维非稳态热弹塑性应力场的有限元方法。以灰铸铁哑铃件为对象,用新屈服曲面对其应力发展过程进行了模拟,且比较了用新旧屈服面计算得到的结果。     

Structure of astacin and implications for activation of astacins and zinc-ligation of collagenases.

Astacin, a digestive zinc-endopeptidase from the crayfish Astacus astacus L., is the prototype for the 'astacin family', which includes mammalian metallo-endopeptidases and developmentally regulated proteins of man, fruitfly, frog and sea urchin. Here we report the X-ray crystal structure of astacin, which reveals a deep active-site cleft, with the zinc at its bottom ligated by three histidines, a water molecule and a more remote tyrosine. The third histidine (His 102) forms part of a consensus sequence, shared not only by the members of the astacin family, but also by otherwise sequentially unrelated proteinases, such as vertebrate collagenases. It may therefore represent the elusive 'third' zinc ligand in these enzymes. The amino terminus of astacin is buried forming an internal salt-bridge with Glu 103, adjacent to His 102. Astacin pro-forms extended at the N terminus, as observed for some 'latent' mammalian astacin homologues, did not exhibit this 'active' conformation, indicating an activation mechanism reminiscent of trypsin-like serine proteinases.     

Choroidal and iris angioarchitecture of the newt: A scanning electron-microscopic study of vascular corrosion casts

The corrosion cast technique provided for the first time an excellent three-dimensional visualization of the vascular pattern of the choroid and iris in the newt eye. The results show the presence of a single arterial afference to the choroidal and iris capillaries: the ophthalmic artery is the origin fo both ciliary arteries and the long posterior ciliary artery. Slightly behind the equatorial circumference of the eyeball the venous drainage consists of a single vessel on the dorsal side and two distinct vessels on the ventral one. It receives blood from both iris and choroid. The surface of the plastic endocasts shows some details of fine luminal structures of the endothelial cells. Shallow depressions may be regarded as imprints of endothelial cell nuclei, and they are distinctly different for arteries and capillaries. The angioarchitecture of the newt eye differs from that of brain in that hairpin-shaped capillary loops are not observed at all.     

小麦群体连续选择效应的综合分析

本试验对由信谷核不育基因构成的异效群体内４个性状进行连续两轮歧化选择，并将所得数据进行群体综合分析。结果表明：整个群体的平均表现和变异程度未发明显变化；但群体分布状况有一定改变，尤其是每穗粒数的分布数化较为明显；株高和千粒重的有效因子数估计基本符合小麦遗传实际表现，每穗粒数的有效有效因子数估计略低，说明此性状遗传背景较为简单。     

Phenological studies of selected savanna mosses of south-western Nigeria

It was established that there is little diversity of bryophytes in the derived savanna. Mosses were found in the sampling sites, whereas liverworts were rarely observed. The reproductive methods of four dominant sexually reproducing savanna mosses —Archidium ohioense, Bryum coronatum, Fissidens minutifolius andTrachycarpidium tisserantii were monitored over two consecutive rainy seasons. Protonemal and gametophyte production were noticed in the field in March/April, and capsule dehiscence and spore dispersal occurred in September/October. The sequential stages of development, starting with gametangial production and ending with the falling of the dehisced capsules, occurred within the rainy season. However,A. ohioense andT. tisserantii did not discharge their spores easily (cleistocarpous), unlike the stegocarpous speciesB. coronatum andF. minutifolius. Water availability and possibly high humidity may have contributed to growth. The short period between sex organ formation and dehiscence of capsule seen in these studies, compared with the longer period in some temperate mosses, may be an advantage for bryophytes in a savanna environment.     

Are you growing systems thinking managers? Use a systems model to teach and practice organizational analysis and planning,management policy,and organizational development

This paper discusses the use of the Kast and Rosenzweig systems and contingency model for teaching and practice in organizational analysis and planning, management policy, and organizational development. The need for an organizational model for graduate students and field-based managers and executives is identified. The model is presented beginning with the Kast and Rosenzweig work, with integration of research by Daft, Schein, Trist, Deal and Kennedy, Ackoff, Delbecq, and Mintzberg. The teaching and practice uses of the model in four areas are presented, including organizational analysis and planning, management policy making, and organizational development. In each area case examples of the use of the model in teaching and practice are presented. Needs for future research and implications for the use of the model are discussed.     

Resistant orthogonal procrustes analysis

In this paper two alternative loss criteria for the least squares Procrustes problem are studied. These alternative criteria are based on the Huber function and on the more radical biweight function, which are designed to be resistant to outliers. Using iterative majorization it is shown how a convergent reweighted least squares algorithm can be developed. In asimulation study it turns out that the proposed methods perform well over a specific range of contamination. When a uniform dilation factor is included, mixed results are obtained. The methods also yield a set of weights that can be used for diagnostic purposes.     

非马尔科夫多值噪声驱动下系统的平均第一通过时间

本文把Weiss等发展的计算平均第一通过时间(简称MFPT)的新方法推广到由非马尔科夫多值噪声驱动的过程.为了简化,本文只限于研究矩形分布这一情形.通过一个重要实例,对MFPT进行了具体计算,并得到了显式解析表示.