On the Difficulty of Measuring Forecasting Skill in Financial Markets

The use of correlation between forecasts and actual returns is commonplace in the literature, often used as a measurement of investors' skill. A prominent application of this is the concept of the information coefficient (IC). Not only can the IC be used as a tool to rate analysts and fund managers but it also represents an important parameter in the asset allocation and portfolio construction process. Nevertheless, a theoretical understanding of it has typically been limited to the partial equilibrium context where the investing activities of each agent have no effect on other market participants. In this paper we show that this can be an undesirable oversimplification and we demonstrate plausible circumstances in which conventional empirical measurements of IC can be highly misleading. We suggest that improved understanding of IC in a general equilibrium setting can lead to refined portfolio decision making ex ante and more informative analysis of performance ex post. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Old drugs with new skills: fenoprofen as an allosteric enhancer at melanocortin receptor 3

The efficiency of drug research and development has paradoxically declined over the last decades despite major scientific and technological advances, promoting new cost-effective strategies such as drug repositioning by systematic screening for new actions of known drugs. Here, we performed a screening for positive allosteric modulators (PAMs) at melanocortin (MC) receptors. The non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug fenoprofen, but not the similar compound ibuprofen, presented PAM activity at MC₃, MC₄, and MC₅ receptors. In a model of inflammatory arthritis, fenoprofen afforded potent inhibition while ibuprofen was nearly inactive. Fenoprofen presented anti-arthritic actions on cartilage integrity and synovitis, effects markedly attenuated in Mc3r?/? mice. Fenoprofen displayed pro-resolving properties promoting macrophage phagocytosis and efferocytosis, independently of cyclooxygenase inhibition. In conclusion, combining repositioning with advances in G-protein coupled receptor biology (allosterism) may lead to potential new therapeutics. In addition, MC₃ PAMs emerged as a viable approach to the development of innovative therapeutics for joint diseases.     

Dysregulation of TGF-beta activation contributes to pathogenesis in Marfan syndrome

Marfan syndrome is an autosomal dominant disorder of connective tissue caused by mutations in fibrillin-1 (encoded by FBN1 in humans and Fbn1 in mice), a matrix component of extracellular microfibrils. A distinct subgroup of individuals with Marfan syndrome have distal airspace enlargement, historically described as emphysema, which frequently results in spontaneous lung rupture (pneumothorax; refs. 1-3). To investigate the pathogenesis of genetically imposed emphysema, we analyzed the lung phenotype of mice deficient in fibrillin-1, an accepted model of Marfan syndrome. Lung abnormalities are evident in the immediate postnatal period and manifest as a developmental impairment of distal alveolar septation. Aged mice deficient in fibrillin-1 develop destructive emphysema consistent with the view that early developmental perturbations can predispose to late-onset, seemingly acquired phenotypes. We show that mice deficient in fibrillin-1 have marked dysregulation of transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-beta) activation and signaling, resulting in apoptosis in the developing lung. Perinatal antagonism of TGF-beta attenuates apoptosis and rescues alveolar septation in vivo. These data indicate that matrix sequestration of cytokines is crucial to their regulated activation and signaling and that perturbation of this function can contribute to the pathogenesis of disease.     

Photon emission of phagocytes in relation to stress and disease.

Phagocytes, the first-line cells of the body's defence mechanisms against invading pathogens, kill microorganisms by means of lysosomal degradative enzymes and highly toxic reactive oxygen intermediates. The reactive oxygen compounds are produced, in a process called the 'respiratory burst', by the NADPH oxidase complex in plasma membranes, and by myeloperoxidase in phagolysosomes after degranulation. These processes generate electronically excited states which, on relaxation, emit photons, giving rise to phagocyte chemiluminescence (CL). This paper describes the conditions for the measurement of CL, and reviews the activity of phagocytes from individuals undergoing stress or disease. The capability of phagocytes to emit photons reflects remarkably well the pathophysiological state of the host. In many cases even the magnitude of the stress, the presence of a pathogen in the body, or the activity of the disease can be estimated. Physiological changes, e.g. in the reproductive cycle, can also be predicted.