Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

MeV Pb离子在非晶Si中的射程离散──离子束混合和增强扩散的影响

１．０ＭｅＶ２０８Ｐｂ离子在非晶Ｓｉ中的投影射程ＲＰ和射程偏差ΔＲＰ作为注量和温度二者的函数用背散射法进行测定．注量的变化范围为５×１０１３～７×１０１４ｃｍ－２．注入是在室温和ｔ＝－１２０℃下完成的．由由实验所确定的投影射程，射程偏差与注量或温度无关，并且分别等于２９５和７２．２ｎｍ．与ＴＲＩＭ８６的计算结果相比较，发现ＲＰ的偏离为１８％，而ΔＲＰ的偏离为３６％．ＲＰ和ΔＲＰ二者与注量及温度的无关性，排除了所观察到的与ＴＲＩＭ的矛盾是由于注入期间辐射增强扩散或离子束混合效应而引起的解释。     

MD Method in Solving Multiple Criteria Decision Problems Arising from Investment Systems

ＭＤＭｅｔｈｏｄｉｎＳｏｌｖｉｎｇＭｕｌｔｉｐｌｅＣｒｉｔｅｒｉａＤｅｃｉｓｉｏｎＰｒｏｂｌｅｍｓＡｒｉｓｉｎｇｆｒｏｍＩｎｖｅｓｔｍｅｎｔＳｙｓｔｅｍｓＤＵＷｅｎｚｈｏｎｇ;ＣＩＪｉａｎｈｕａ（ＥｃｏｎｏｍｉｃＩｎｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎＣｅｎｔｅｒｏｆ...     

Selectivity of CC Traps in Catching Green Leafhoppers and Thrips

在中国广西南宁,测定８种不同基座颜色的ＣＣ诱捕器对豇豆（ＶｉｇｎａｓｅｓｑｕｉｐｅｄａｌｉｓＷｒｉｇｈｔ）上的叶蝉、蓟马的诱捕作用。蓝色基座诱捕器对华筒管蓟马（ＨａｐｌｏｔｈｒｉｐｓｃｈｉｎｅｎｓｉｓＰｒｉｅｓｎｅｓ）的诱集量为白色基座诱捕器的２倍（２２．８头／诱捕器天）,其他基座颜色诱捕器的诱捕量为０．１～１．７头／诱捕器天。ＣＣ诱捕器对叶蝉（Ｅｍｐｏａｓｃａｓｐｐ．）的诱集量为４头／诱捕器天,不同基座颜色诱捕器的诱集量差异不显著。在印度,测定白色、黄色和绿色基座诱捕器对花生上两种蓟马的诱捕作用。白色基座诱捕器对茶黄蓟马（ＳｃｉｒｔｏｔｈｒｉｐｓｄｏｒｓａｌｉｓＨｏｏｄ）的诱集量为３９．８头／诱捕器天,为黄色基座诱捕器的２倍多。绿色基座诱捕器的诱集量最少。白色基座诱捕器对瓜蓟马（ＴｈｒｉｐｓｐａｌｍｉＫａｒｎｙ）的诱捕量（１７．３头／诱捕器天）也显著高于黄色基座诱捕器（１１．０头／诱捕器天）。结论为：白色和蓝色基座诱捕器可用于监测豇豆、花生上蓟马的种群数量。