Conflict analysis approaches for investigating attitudes and misperceptions in the War of 1812

Formal systems engineering approaches to modeling misperceptions and attitudes are employed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution to systematically study the War of 1812 between the United States of America and Great Britain in order to provide enhanced insights into the causes of the war. More specifically, relational definitions for preferences, movements and stability concepts are defined for describing the attitudes and associated behavior of decision makers involved in a conflict. To capture misperceptions of decision makers in the War of 1812, attitudes are studied within the structure of a hypergame. Combining attitudes and misperceptions within the paradigm of the graph model furnishes the flexible analytical tool which demonstrates that misunderstanding of attitudes by Great Britain and the United States may have contributed to the outbreak of this nasty war.     

A multiple intelligent agent system for credit risk prediction via an optimization of localized generalization error with diversity

Company bankruptcies cost billions of dollars in losses to banks each year. Thus credit risk prediction is a critical part of a bank＇s loan approval decision process. Traditional financial models for credit risk prediction are no longer adequate for describing today＇s complex relationship between the financial health and potential bankruptcy of a company. In this work, a multiple classifier system （embedded in a multiple intelligent agent system） is proposed to predict the financial health of a company. In our model, each individual agent （classifier） makes a prediction on the likelihood of credit risk based on only partial information of the company. Each of the agents is an expert, but has limited knowledge （represented by features） about the company. The decisions of all agents are combined together to form a final credit risk prediction. Experiments show that our model out-performs other existing methods using the benchmarking Compustat American Corporations dataset.     

三峡兴隆洞出土12~15万年前的古人类化石和象牙刻划

在重庆市奉节县兴隆洞发掘出土早期智人牙齿、石器、有人工刻划痕迹的象牙和丰富的哺乳动物化石. 这些材料的种类、特点和埋藏状况说明该洞穴是一处远古人类的居住遗址. 通过出土动物群推断和铀系年代测定, 古人类在该洞穴的生存行为发生在中更新世晚期, 距今12~15万年前. 这是在三峡地区首次发现的早期智人化石. 出现在剑齿象门齿上的刻划纹成组分布, 组成简单而抽象的图案, 是目前所知最早的人类有意识的刻划作品, 对原始艺术的起源和东亚地区现代人类的起源、演化和行为方式的研究具有重要的学术意义.     

A study of standardization of variables in cluster analysis

A methodological problem in applied clustering involves the decision of whether or not to standardize the input variables prior to the computation of a Euclidean distance dissimilarity measure. Existing results have been mixed with some studies recommending standardization and others suggesting that it may not be desirable. The existence of numerous approaches to standardization complicates the decision process. The present simulation study examined the standardization problem. A variety of data structures were generated which varied the intercluster spacing and the scales for the variables. The data sets were examined in four different types of error environments. These involved error free data, error perturbed distances, inclusion of outliers, and the addition of random noise dimensions. Recovery of true cluster structure as found by four clustering methods was measured at the correct partition level and at reduced levels of coverage. Results for eight standardization strategies are presented. It was found that those approaches which standardize by division by the range of the variable gave consistently superior recovery of the underlying cluster structure. The result held over different error conditions, separation distances, clustering methods, and coverage levels. The traditionalz-score transformation was found to be less effective in several situations.     

Statistical tests on two characteristics of the shapes of cluster diagrams

A cluster diagram is a rooted planar tree that depicts the hierarchical agglomeration of objects into groups of increasing size. On the null hypothesis that at each stage of the clustering procedure all possible joins are equally probable, we derive the probability distributions for two properties of these diagrams: (1)S, the number of single objects previously ungrouped that are joined in the final stages of clustering, and (2)m _k, the number of groups ofk+1 objects that are formed during the process. Ecological applications of statistical tests for these properties are described and illustrated with data from weed communities of Saskatchewan fields.This work was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.     

Copper and zinc dismetabolism in the mouse brain upon chronic cuprizone treatment

Recent reports describe successful treatment using copper chelation therapy in neurodegenerative animal models. However, the success claimed for chelation therapy in neurodegenerative diseases is still rather controversial. To acquire new information on copper metabolism/homeostasis, we utilized cuprizone, a very sensitive and selective copper-chelating agent with well-known neurotoxic properties, as a relevant chemical model in mice. Upon cuprizone treatment, mice developed a pronounced astrocytosis, with brain oedema and spongiosis characterised by vacuolisations of the neuropil predominantly in the white matter. In addition, cuprizone treatment severely altered copper and zinc homeostasis in the central nervous system (CNS) as well as in all other tissues examined, with increasing metal ion concentrations particularly in the CNS. Concomitant with this increase in the Cu and Zn concentration in the brain, metallothionein-I and -II were also highly immunoreactive in astrocyte, consistent with the astrocytosis and demyelination observed in our and other laboratories.Received 23 February 2005; received after revision 3 May 2005; accepted 13 May 2005     

Mechanisms underlying celiac disease and its neurologic manifestations

The extra-intestinal manifestations of celiac disease (CD), including ataxia and peripheral neuropathy, are increasingly being recognized as the presenting symptoms of this autoimmune disease. Although there is a greater understanding of the pathogenesis of the intestinal lesions in CD the mechanisms behind the neurologic manifestations of CD have not been elucidated. In this article, the authors review the cellular and molecular mechanisms behind the histopathologic changes in the intestine, discuss the presentation and characteristics of neurologic manifestations of CD, review the data on the mechanisms behind these manifestations, and discuss the diagnosis and treatment of CD. Molecular mimicry and intermolecular help may play a role in the development of neurologic complications.Received 11 March 2004; received after revision 29 October 2004; accepted 12 November 2004     

Newly discovered endocrine functions of white adipose tissue: possible relevance in obesity-related diseases

During recent years our view of adipose tissue has been revolutionized. White adipose tissue (WAT) is no longer seen as mere energy store or provider of thermal and mechanical insulation. Neglect of WAT has been overcome by surprising discoveries in recent years, changing the view of this tissue towards a highly endocrine organ that is involved in a wide variety of physiological and pathophysiological processes. In this brief article we will focus on new developments in adipocyte and WAT biology. The appreciation of WAT as an endocrine organ will provide the basis for new and promising perspectives in the management of obesity and obesity-related diseases including diabetes, mellitus type II and arterial hypertension.