Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Timed bromocriptine administration reduces body fat stores in obese subjects and hyperglycemia in type II diabetics.

Obese postmenopausal female volunteers were given timed daily oral dosages of bromocriptine, and tested for reduction of body fat stores. This dopamine agonist has been shown to reset circadian rhythms that are altered in obese animals and to reduce body fat levels in several animal models. The participants were instructed not to alter their existing exercise and eating behavior during treatment. Skinfold measurements were taken on 33 subjects as indices of body fat. The measurements (e.g., suprailiac) were reduced after six weeks by about 25%, which represents a reduction of 11.7% of the total body fat. These dramatic decreases in body fat, which are equivalent to that produced by severe caloric restriction, were accompanied by more modest reductions of body weight (2.5%), indicating a possible conservation of protein that is usually lost as a consequence of such caloric restriction. The effects of bromocriptine treatment on body fat and hyperglycemia were also examined in non-insulin dependent diabetics being treated with oral hypoglycemics (7 subjects) or insulin (7 subjects). Total body fat was reduced by 10.7% and 5.1% in diabetics on oral hypoglycemics and insulin, respectively, without any significant reductions in body weight. Hyperglycemia was reduced in most of the 15 diabetic subjects treated leading to euglycemia and even cessation of hypoglycemic drugs in 3 of the 7 subjects during 4-8 weeks of bromocriptine treatment. These findings support the hypothesis that obesity and type II diabetes may be treated effectively with bromocriptine when administered at the proper times and dosages.     

Short alanine-based peptides may form 3(10)-helices and not alpha-helices in aqueous solution.

Short alanine peptides, containing 16 or 17 residues, appear to form alpha-helices in aqueous solution. But the main spectroscopic analyses used on helical peptides (circular dichroism and nuclear magnetic resonance) cannot distinguish between an alpha-helix (in which the ith residue is hydrogen-bonded to residue i + 4; ref. 9) and the next most common peptide helix, the 3(10)-helix10 (i-->i + 3 hydrogen-bonding). To address this problem we have designed single and doubly spin-labelled analogues of alanine-based peptides in which the nitroxide spin label forms an unbranched side chain extending from the sulphur atom of a cysteine residue. Here we report the circular dichroism, Fourier-transform infrared and electron-spin resonance spectra of these peptides under helix-forming conditions. The infrared absorbance gives an amide I' band with a frequency that is substantially different from that observed for alpha-helices. The electron-spin resonance spectra of doubly labelled helices show that the ranking of distances between side chains, around a single turn (residues 4-8), is inconsistent with an alpha-helical structure. Our experiments suggest that the more likely peptide geometry is a 3(10)-helix.     

Mechanism for the learning deficits in a mouse model of neurofibromatosis type 1.

Neurofibromatosis type I (NF1) is one of the most common single-gene disorders that causes learning deficits in humans. Mice carrying a heterozygous null mutation of the Nfl gene (Nfl(+/-) show important features of the learning deficits associated with NF1 (ref. 2). Although neurofibromin has several known properties and functions, including Ras GTPase-activating protein activity, adenylyl cyclase modulation and microtubule binding, it is unclear which of these are essential for learning in mice and humans. Here we show that the learning deficits of Nf1(+/-) mice can be rescued by genetic and pharmacological manipulations that decrease Ras function. We also show that the Nf1(+/-) mice have increased GABA (gamma-amino butyric acid)-mediated inhibition and specific deficits in long-term potentiation, both of which can be reversed by decreasing Ras function. Our results indicate that the learning deficits associated with NF1 may be caused by excessive Ras activity, which leads to impairments in long-term potentiation caused by increased GABA-mediated inhibition. Our findings have implications for the development of treatments for learning deficits associated with NF1.     

Statecharts for Distributed Product Data Management System Modelling

Product data management (PDM) has been accepted as an important tool for the manufacturing industries. In recent years, more and mor e researches have been conducted in the development of PDM. Their research area s include system design, integration of object-oriented technology, data distri bution, collaborative and distributed manufacturing working environment, secur ity, and web-based integration. However, there are limitations on their rese arches. In particular, they cannot cater for PDM in dis...     

Chromosomal effects of adeno-associated virus vector integration.

Adeno-associated virus (AAV) vectors are currently being used in several clinical gene-therapy trials (see the NIH OBA Human Gene Transfer Clinical Trials Database); however, little is known about the chromosomal effects of vector integration. Here we report that integrated vector proviruses are associated with chromosomal deletions and other rearrangements and are frequently located on chromosome 19 (although not at the wildtype AAV integration site).     

Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

Indoxyl derivatives of drug metabolites

Summary Indoxyl derivatives were detected as minor products among the urinary metabolites of two trial drugs, a benzodiazepine (GP 55 129) and a benzophenone (CGP 11 952). Their structures were elucidated by NMR and mass spectroscopy. Presumably, metabolites containing potential aldehyde functions react spontaneously with endogenous indoxyl. Such derivatives have not hitherto been encountered in drug metabolism.