The Third Track of the Open-Systems-Thinking School: An Application of Domain Theory to New Zealand Ports

The Open-Systems Thinking (OST) school identified with Emery and Trist is situated as an important but underutilized approach in systems thinking. The main features of OST are described, including four "tracks" along which OST has developed. The third track, which focuses on interorganizational domains, is considered in detail. It is then applied to a case concerning the complex social dynamics of and in port domains in New Zealand. This exercise enables us to illuminate some lacunae in previous representations of the port domain research, to assess OST's third track regarding its relevance for systemic practice, and to help to bring OST to the table with other systems approaches that are all vying for the attention of researchers, practicing managers, students, and consultants.     

Decentralized Bezout Identity and a Parametrization of Decentralized Controllers for Singular Systems

1　 IntroductionConsider a singular decentralized control system of the formEx(t) =Ax(t) ∑Ni=1Biui(t)yi =Cix(t) ,i∈ N ={ 1 ,2 ,… ,N}(1 )where x(t)∈ Rn is the state vector,ui(t)∈ Rmi and yi(t)∈ Rpi are respectively the localcontrol input and measure outputvectors of the ith control channel.The matrix E may besingular,i.e.,rank(E) 相似文献   

A DEA-TOPSIS method for multiple criteria decision analysis in emergency management

A hybrid approach of DEA (data envelopment analysis) and TOPSIS (technique for order performance (preference) by similarity to ideal solution) is proposed for multiple criteria decision analysis in emergency management. Two DEA-based optimization models are constructed to facilitate identifying parameter information regarding criterion weights and quantifying qualitative criteria in TOPSIS. An emergency management case study utilizing data from the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) Disasters Database is provided to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed analysis procedure.     

Risk reduction in a project portfolio

The positive impacts of managing projects as a portfolio are quantified by comparing the value of the integrated risk of a project portfolio and the aggregation of single project risks implemented separately. Firstly, the integrated risk is defined by proposing risky events based on set theory. Secondly, as projects interact with each other in a project portfolio, the integrated risk is evaluated by using a Bayesian network structure learning algorithm to construct an interdependent network of risks. Finally, the integrated risk of a practical case is assessed using this method, and the results show that the proposed method is an effective tool for calculating the extent of risk reduction of implementing a project portfolio and identifying the most risky project, so as to assist companies in making comprehensive decisions in the phase of portfolio selection and portfolio controlling.     

Conflict analysis approaches for investigating attitudes and misperceptions in the War of 1812

Formal systems engineering approaches to modeling misperceptions and attitudes are employed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution to systematically study the War of 1812 between the United States of America and Great Britain in order to provide enhanced insights into the causes of the war. More specifically, relational definitions for preferences, movements and stability concepts are defined for describing the attitudes and associated behavior of decision makers involved in a conflict. To capture misperceptions of decision makers in the War of 1812, attitudes are studied within the structure of a hypergame. Combining attitudes and misperceptions within the paradigm of the graph model furnishes the flexible analytical tool which demonstrates that misunderstanding of attitudes by Great Britain and the United States may have contributed to the outbreak of this nasty war.     

A multiple intelligent agent system for credit risk prediction via an optimization of localized generalization error with diversity

Company bankruptcies cost billions of dollars in losses to banks each year. Thus credit risk prediction is a critical part of a bank＇s loan approval decision process. Traditional financial models for credit risk prediction are no longer adequate for describing today＇s complex relationship between the financial health and potential bankruptcy of a company. In this work, a multiple classifier system （embedded in a multiple intelligent agent system） is proposed to predict the financial health of a company. In our model, each individual agent （classifier） makes a prediction on the likelihood of credit risk based on only partial information of the company. Each of the agents is an expert, but has limited knowledge （represented by features） about the company. The decisions of all agents are combined together to form a final credit risk prediction. Experiments show that our model out-performs other existing methods using the benchmarking Compustat American Corporations dataset.     

South-polar features on Venus similar to those near the north pole

Venus has no seasons, slow rotation and a very massive atmosphere, which is mainly carbon dioxide with clouds primarily of sulphuric acid droplets. Infrared observations by previous missions to Venus revealed a bright 'dipole' feature surrounded by a cold 'collar' at its north pole. The polar dipole is a 'double-eye' feature at the centre of a vast vortex that rotates around the pole, and is possibly associated with rapid downwelling. The polar cold collar is a wide, shallow river of cold air that circulates around the polar vortex. One outstanding question has been whether the global circulation was symmetric, such that a dipole feature existed at the south pole. Here we report observations of Venus' south-polar region, where we have seen clouds with morphology much like those around the north pole, but rotating somewhat faster than the northern dipole. The vortex may extend down to the lower cloud layers that lie at about 50 km height and perhaps deeper. The spectroscopic properties of the clouds around the south pole are compatible with a sulphuric acid composition.     

Frictional ageing from interfacial bonding and the origins of rate and state friction

Earthquakes have long been recognized as being the result of stick-slip frictional instabilities. Over the past few decades, laboratory studies of rock friction have elucidated many aspects of tectonic fault zone processes and earthquake phenomena. Typically, the static friction of rocks grows logarithmically with time when they are held in stationary contact, but the mechanism responsible for this strengthening is not understood. This time-dependent increase of frictional strength, or frictional ageing, is one manifestation of the 'evolution effect' in rate and state friction theory. A prevailing view is that the time dependence of rock friction results from increases in contact area caused by creep of contacting asperities. Here we present the results of atomic force microscopy experiments that instead show that frictional ageing arises from the formation of interfacial chemical bonds, and the large magnitude of ageing at the nanometre scale is quantitatively consistent with what is required to explain observations in macroscopic rock friction experiments. The relative magnitude of the evolution effect compared with that of the 'direct effect'--the dependence of friction on instantaneous changes in slip velocity--determine whether unstable slip, leading to earthquakes, is possible. Understanding the mechanism underlying the evolution effect would enable us to formulate physically based frictional constitutive laws, rather than the current empirically based 'laws', allowing more confident extrapolation to natural faults.