Exploring the Potency of Rich Pictures in a Systemic Lean Intervention Process

Systemic Practice and Action Research - This paper explores the usefulness of rich pictures as a method in Systemic Lean Intervention (SLI) process. It combines Lean and Systems Thinking analytical...     

Eustigmaeus floridensis sp. nov., a new mite species of the genus Eustigmaeus Berlese, 1910 (Acari: Stigmaeidae) from citrus in Florida

Eustigmaeus floridensis sp. nov. is described and illustrated based on female specimens collected from citrus trees in Florida, USA. The new species is closely related to Eustigmaeus arcuata, Eustigmaeus segnis and Eustigmaeus microsegnis, all known to occur in Florida. Eustigmaeus floridensis sp. nov. can be distinguished by larger dimples associated with setae sce, d₂ and e₁ containing at least four or more vacuoles centrally; dorsal body setae broadly lanceolate and feather-like, except c₂, which is slender; anogenital area with striae and one pair of serrated aggenital (ag1) and three pairs of serrated pseudanal (ps_1?3) setae. A key to the Eustigmaeus species known to occur across USA is also provided.     

Forecasting of dependence,market, and investment risks of a global index portfolio

This paper undertakes an in-sample and rolling-window comparative analysis of dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks on a 10-year global index portfolio of developed, emerging, and commodity markets. We draw our empirical results by fitting vine copulas (e.g., r-vines, c-vines, d-vines), IGARCH(1,1) RiskMetrics value-at-risk (VaR), and portfolio optimization methods based on risk measures such as the variance, conditional value-at-risk, conditional drawdown-at-risk, minimizing regret (Minimax), and mean absolute deviation. The empirical results indicate that all international indices tend to correlate strongly in the negative tail of the return distribution; however, emerging markets, relative to developed and commodity markets, exhibit greater dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks. The portfolio optimization shows a clear preference towards the gold commodity for investment, while Japan and Canada are found to have the highest and lowest market risk, respectively. The vine copula analysis identifies symmetry in the dependence dynamics of the global index portfolio modeled. Large VaR diversification benefits are produced at the 95% and 99% confidence levels by the modeled international index portfolio. The empirical results may appeal to international portfolio investors and risk managers for advanced portfolio management, hedging, and risk forecasting.     

Debunking material induction

In this paper, we present an explanatory objection to Norton's material theory of induction, as applied to predictive inferences. According to the objection we present, there is an explanatory disconnect between our beliefs about the future and the relevant future facts. We argue that if we recognize such a disconnect, we are no longer rationally entitled to our future beliefs.