Are forecasters reluctant to revise their predictions? Some German evidence

People are reluctant to admit mistakes. This could also be true of economic forecasters. If revisions of past forecasts are costly, then it will become optimal for forecasters to only partially adjust a past forecast in the light of new information. The unwillingness to admit to the mistake in the old forecast generates a bias of the new forecast in the direction of the old forecast. We test this hypothesis for the joint predictions of the Association of German Economic Research Institutes over the last 35 years. We find some evidence for such a bias and compute the implied unwillingness to revise forecasts. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ethical principles and guidelines for scientific experiments on animals

Ethical principles and guidelines for scientific experiments on animals     

CD36 is a sensor of diacylglycerides

Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2) is required for the recognition of numerous molecular components of bacteria, fungi and protozoa. The breadth of the ligand repertoire seems unusual, even if one considers that TLR2 may form heteromers with TLRs 1 and 6 (ref. 12), and it is likely that additional proteins serve as adapters for TLR2 activation. Here we show that an N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea-induced nonsense mutation of Cd36 (oblivious) causes a recessive immunodeficiency phenotype in which macrophages are insensitive to the R-enantiomer of MALP-2 (a diacylated bacterial lipopeptide) and to lipoteichoic acid. Homozygous mice are hypersusceptible to Staphylococcus aureus infection. Cd36(obl) macrophages readily detect S-MALP-2, PAM(2)CSK(4), PAM(3)CSK(4) and zymosan, revealing that some--but not all--TLR2 ligands are dependent on CD36. Already known as a receptor for endogenous molecules, CD36 is also a selective and nonredundant sensor of microbial diacylglycerides that signal via the TLR2/6 heterodimer.     

Opiate receptor sites in neuronal and glial cell lines in culture]

A stereospecific saturable high affinity binding of 3H-naloxone has been found in 3 glial and 2 neuronal cell lines. Kinetic study of binding seems to indicate only one class of receptor sites in the 5 cell lines. Acute exposure to morphine (1 X 10(-5)M) concurrent with PGE1-induced stimulation of adenylate cyclase did not result in a decrease of the cAMP level in any cell line tested.     

Independent evolution of striated muscles in cnidarians and bilaterians

Striated muscles are present in bilaterian animals (for example, vertebrates, insects and annelids) and some non-bilaterian eumetazoans (that is, cnidarians and ctenophores). The considerable ultrastructural similarity of striated muscles between these animal groups is thought to reflect a common evolutionary origin. Here we show that a muscle protein core set, including a type II myosin heavy chain (MyHC) motor protein characteristic of striated muscles in vertebrates, was already present in unicellular organisms before the origin of multicellular animals. Furthermore, 'striated muscle' and 'non-muscle' myhc orthologues are expressed differentially in two sponges, compatible with a functional diversification before the origin of true muscles and the subsequent use of striated muscle MyHC in fast-contracting smooth and striated muscle. Cnidarians and ctenophores possess striated muscle myhc orthologues but lack crucial components of bilaterian striated muscles, such as genes that code for titin and the troponin complex, suggesting the convergent evolution of striated muscles. Consistently, jellyfish orthologues of a shared set of bilaterian Z-disc proteins are not associated with striated muscles, but are instead expressed elsewhere or ubiquitously. The independent evolution of eumetazoan striated muscles through the addition of new proteins to a pre-existing, ancestral contractile apparatus may serve as a model for the evolution of complex animal cell types.     

Electron tomography at 2.4-ångström resolution

Transmission electron microscopy is a powerful imaging tool that has found broad application in materials science, nanoscience and biology. With the introduction of aberration-corrected electron lenses, both the spatial resolution and the image quality in transmission electron microscopy have been significantly improved and resolution below 0.5??ngstr?ms has been demonstrated. To reveal the three-dimensional (3D) structure of thin samples, electron tomography is the method of choice, with cubic-nanometre resolution currently achievable. Discrete tomography has recently been used to generate a 3D atomic reconstruction of a silver nanoparticle two to three nanometres in diameter, but this statistical method assumes prior knowledge of the particle's lattice structure and requires that the atoms fit rigidly on that lattice. Here we report the experimental demonstration of a general electron tomography method that achieves atomic-scale resolution without initial assumptions about the sample structure. By combining a novel projection alignment and tomographic reconstruction method with scanning transmission electron microscopy, we have determined the 3D structure of an approximately ten-nanometre gold nanoparticle at 2.4-?ngstr?m resolution. Although we cannot definitively locate all of the atoms inside the nanoparticle, individual atoms are observed in some regions of the particle and several grains are identified in three dimensions. The 3D surface morphology and internal lattice structure revealed are consistent with a distorted icosahedral multiply twinned particle. We anticipate that this general method can be applied not only to determine the 3D structure of nanomaterials at atomic-scale resolution, but also to improve the spatial resolution and image quality in other tomography fields.