The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition

In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific situation being considered. This paper reports the results of a forecasting competition that provides information to facilitate such choice. Seven experts in each of the 24 methods forecasted up to 1001 series for six up to eighteen time horizons. The results of the competition are presented in this paper whose purpose is to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition.     

Stereospecificity of the prostaglandin 15-dehydrogenase from swine lung

Zusammenfassung Die stereochemischen Voraussetzungen der Prostaglandin-15-Dehydrogenase aus Schweinelunge werden im Hinblick auf die pharmakologische Aktivität anhand einer Reihe synthetischer Prostaglandin E₁-Präparate abgeklärt.

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This work was supported by grants from the U.S. National Institutes of Health to Harvard University and by O.N.R. and N.I.H. grants to the Worcester Foundation for Experimental Biology.     

Changing Arctic Ocean freshwater pathways

Freshening in the Canada basin of the Arctic Ocean began in the 1990s and continued to at least the end of 2008. By then, the Arctic Ocean might have gained four times as much fresh water as comprised the Great Salinity Anomaly of the 1970s, raising the spectre of slowing global ocean circulation. Freshening has been attributed to increased sea ice melting and contributions from runoff, but a leading explanation has been a strengthening of the Beaufort High--a characteristic peak in sea level atmospheric pressure--which tends to accelerate an anticyclonic (clockwise) wind pattern causing convergence of fresh surface water. Limited observations have made this explanation difficult to verify, and observations of increasing freshwater content under a weakened Beaufort High suggest that other factors must be affecting freshwater content. Here we use observations to show that during a time of record reductions in ice extent from 2005 to 2008, the dominant freshwater content changes were an increase in the Canada basin balanced by a decrease in the Eurasian basin. Observations are drawn from satellite data (sea surface height and ocean-bottom pressure) and in situ data. The freshwater changes were due to a cyclonic (anticlockwise) shift in the ocean pathway of Eurasian runoff forced by strengthening of the west-to-east Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation characterized by an increased Arctic Oscillation index. Our results confirm that runoff is an important influence on the Arctic Ocean and establish that the spatial and temporal manifestations of the runoff pathways are modulated by the Arctic Oscillation, rather than the strength of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre circulation.     

A superconductor to superfluid phase transition in liquid metallic hydrogen

Although hydrogen is the simplest of atoms, it does not form the simplest of solids or liquids. Quantum effects in these phases are considerable (a consequence of the light proton mass) and they have a demonstrable and often puzzling influence on many physical properties, including spatial order. To date, the structure of dense hydrogen remains experimentally elusive. Recent studies of the melting curve of hydrogen indicate that at high (but experimentally accessible) pressures, compressed hydrogen will adopt a liquid state, even at low temperatures. In reaching this phase, hydrogen is also projected to pass through an insulator-to-metal transition. This raises the possibility of new state of matter: a near ground-state liquid metal, and its ordered states in the quantum domain. Ordered quantum fluids are traditionally categorized as superconductors or superfluids; these respective systems feature dissipationless electrical currents or mass flow. Here we report a topological analysis of the projected phase of liquid metallic hydrogen, finding that it may represent a new type of ordered quantum fluid. Specifically, we show that liquid metallic hydrogen cannot be categorized exclusively as a superconductor or superfluid. We predict that, in the presence of a magnetic field, liquid metallic hydrogen will exhibit several phase transitions to ordered states, ranging from superconductors to superfluids.     

Dosing of Reagents and Solid Supports as Tablets

During the latest decade, the intensive investigation into the solid-phase synthesis of small organic molecules, as well as the use of polymer-supported reagents and catalysts for solution-phase organic synthesis has lead to paradigm shifts in many areas of chemistry. This has particularly been the case within the fields of biological and medicinal chemistry where the parallel synthesis of discrete molecules （in series or larger libraries）, either by manual or automated methods, has been implemented as a key technology/methodology in the preparation of compounds for biological evaluation.