Forecasting and signal extraction with misspecified models

This paper evaluates multistep estimation for the purposes of signal extraction, and in particular the separation of the trend from the cycle in economic time series, and long‐range forecasting, in the presence of a misspecified, but simply parameterized model. Our workhorse models are two popular unobserved components models, namely the local level and the local linear model. The paper introduces a metric for assessing the accuracy of the unobserved components estimates and concludes that multistep estimation can be valuable. However, its performance depends crucially on the properties of the series and the paper explores the role of the order of integration and the relative size of the cyclical variation. On the contrary, cross‐validation is usually not suitable for the purposes considered. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cocci and diphtheroids in blood cultures from patients in various pathological situations

The evolution of cocci and diphtheroids taking origin from cell-wall-deficient forms seems not to be related to a particular state of illness, but to be the consequence of a generalized crypto-infection.     

Kramer Palouse natural area

Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} The 27-acre Kramer Palouse Natural Area located in southeastern Washington State represents the best remaining example of what was once the most productive portion of the original Palouse Prairie. This area is being maintained in its pristine condition as a key to the past and as a memory to a unique and once extensive prairie land by the Department of Forestry and Range Management at Washington State University.       

Quantum-coherent coupling of a mechanical oscillator to an optical cavity mode

Optical laser fields have been widely used to achieve quantum control over the motional and internal degrees of freedom of atoms and ions, molecules and atomic gases. A route to controlling the quantum states of macroscopic mechanical oscillators in a similar fashion is to exploit the parametric coupling between optical and mechanical degrees of freedom through radiation pressure in suitably engineered optical cavities. If the optomechanical coupling is 'quantum coherent'--that is, if the coherent coupling rate exceeds both the optical and the mechanical decoherence rate--quantum states are transferred from the optical field to the mechanical oscillator and vice versa. This transfer allows control of the mechanical oscillator state using the wide range of available quantum optical techniques. So far, however, quantum-coherent coupling of micromechanical oscillators has only been achieved using microwave fields at millikelvin temperatures. Optical experiments have not attained this regime owing to the large mechanical decoherence rates and the difficulty of overcoming optical dissipation. Here we achieve quantum-coherent coupling between optical photons and a micromechanical oscillator. Simultaneously, coupling to the cold photon bath cools the mechanical oscillator to an average occupancy of 1.7?±?0.1 motional quanta. Excitation with weak classical light pulses reveals the exchange of energy between the optical light field and the micromechanical oscillator in the time domain at the level of less than one quantum on average. This optomechanical system establishes an efficient quantum interface between mechanical oscillators and optical photons, which can provide decoherence-free transport of quantum states through optical fibres. Our results offer a route towards the use of mechanical oscillators as quantum transducers or in microwave-to-optical quantum links.     

Rab5 is necessary for the biogenesis of the endolysosomal system in vivo

An outstanding question is how cells control the number and size of membrane organelles. The small GTPase Rab5 has been proposed to be a master regulator of endosome biogenesis. Here, to test this hypothesis, we developed a mathematical model of endosome dependency on Rab5 and validated it by titrating down all three Rab5 isoforms in adult mouse liver using state-of-the-art RNA interference technology. Unexpectedly, the endocytic system was resilient to depletion of Rab5 and collapsed only when Rab5 decreased to a critical level. Loss of Rab5 below this threshold caused a marked reduction in the number of early endosomes, late endosomes and lysosomes, associated with a block of low-density lipoprotein endocytosis. Loss of endosomes caused failure to deliver apical proteins to the bile canaliculi, suggesting a requirement for polarized cargo sorting. Our results demonstrate for the first time, to our knowledge, the role of Rab5 as an endosome organizer in vivo and reveal the resilience mechanisms of the endocytic system.     

Sophisticated sperm allocation in male fowl

When a female is sexually promiscuous, the ejaculates of different males compete for the fertilization of her eggs; the more sperm a male inseminates into a female, the more likely he is to fertilize her eggs. Because sperm production is limited and costly, theory predicts that males will strategically allocate sperm (1) according to female promiscuity, (2) saving some for copulations with new females, and (3) to females producing more and/or better offspring. Whether males allocate sperm in all of these ways is not known, particularly in birds where the collection of natural ejaculates only recently became possible. Here we demonstrate male sperm allocation of unprecedented sophistication in the fowl Gallus gallus. Males show status-dependent sperm investment in females according to the level of female promiscuity; they progressively reduce sperm investment in a particular female but, on encountering a new female, instantaneously increase their sperm investment; and they preferentially allocate sperm to females with large sexual ornaments signalling superior maternal investment. Our results indicate that female promiscuity leads to the evolution of sophisticated male sexual behaviour.