自调式镦压挤胀复合液压机的研制

从力学原理、设计原理、整机结构、关键零部件的设计和工作程序,系统地介绍了自调式镦压挤胀复合液压机．由于压机设计了顶出缸对下活动横梁调节限位结构,回程拉杆对上镦压横梁的复位结构及镦压缸和气液储能器之间的连通协调结构,这不仅使该液压机结构紧凑,同时节省了上镦压横梁的回程液压缸、下活动横梁的镦压缸,并简化了上凸模与上镦压模分设的液压系统,而且解决了直齿圆柱齿轮在塑性成形过程中齿顶难以充满、齿根易出现微裂纹,以及成形压力过大和模具寿命过低的问题．     

An Analysis of an SIRS Epidemic Model with General Direct Immunization in Networks北大核心CSCD

We consider an SIRS epidemic model with a general direct immunization rate on networks. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functions, we find that the dynamical behvaior of the model is completely determined by the epidemic threshold λc. When λ≤λc, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; when λ>λc, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. In addition, we propose a uniform direct immunization and a targeted direct immunization. The results show that under the same average immunization rate s there exists a critical immunization-lost rate δc so that the epidemic threshold of the targeted direct immunization is smaller (larger) than that of the uniform direct immunization if δ<δc(δ>δc). © 2017, The Journal of Agency of Complex Systems and Complexity Science. All right reserved.     

How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?

In this paper, we propose a framework to evaluate the subjective density forecasts of macroeconomists using micro data from the euro area Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). A key aspect of our analysis is the use of evaluation measures which take account of the entire predictive densities, and not just the probability assigned to the outcome that occurs. Overall, we find considerable heterogeneity in the performance of the surveyed densities at the individual level. However, it is hard to exploit this heterogeneity and improve aggregate performance by trimming poorly performing forecasters in real time. Relative to a set of simple benchmarks, density performance is somewhat better for GDP growth than for inflation, although in the former case it diminishes substantially with the forecast horizon. In addition, we report evidence of an improvement in the relative performance of expert densities during the recent period of macroeconomic volatility. However, our analysis also reveals clear evidence of overconfidence or neglected risks in expert probability assessments, as reflected in frequent occurrences of events which are assigned a zero probability. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association data and large-scale replication identifies additional susceptibility loci for type 2 diabetes

Genome-wide association (GWA) studies have identified multiple loci at which common variants modestly but reproducibly influence risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Established associations to common and rare variants explain only a small proportion of the heritability of T2D. As previously published analyses had limited power to identify variants with modest effects, we carried out meta-analysis of three T2D GWA scans comprising 10,128 individuals of European descent and approximately 2.2 million SNPs (directly genotyped and imputed), followed by replication testing in an independent sample with an effective sample size of up to 53,975. We detected at least six previously unknown loci with robust evidence for association, including the JAZF1 (P = 5.0 x 10(-14)), CDC123-CAMK1D (P = 1.2 x 10(-10)), TSPAN8-LGR5 (P = 1.1 x 10(-9)), THADA (P = 1.1 x 10(-9)), ADAMTS9 (P = 1.2 x 10(-8)) and NOTCH2 (P = 4.1 x 10(-8)) gene regions. Our results illustrate the value of large discovery and follow-up samples for gaining further insights into the inherited basis of T2D.     

SLC2A9 influences uric acid concentrations with pronounced sex-specific effects

Serum uric acid concentrations are correlated with gout and clinical entities such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes. In the genome-wide association study KORA (Kooperative Gesundheitsforschung in der Region Augsburg) F3 500K (n = 1,644), the most significant SNPs associated with uric acid concentrations mapped within introns 4 and 6 of SLC2A9, a gene encoding a putative hexose transporter (effects: -0.23 to -0.36 mg/dl per copy of the minor allele). We replicated these findings in three independent samples from Germany (KORA S4 and SHIP (Study of Health in Pomerania)) and Austria (SAPHIR; Salzburg Atherosclerosis Prevention Program in Subjects at High Individual Risk), with P values ranging from 1.2 x 10(-8) to 1.0 x 10(-32). Analysis of whole blood RNA expression profiles from a KORA F3 500K subgroup (n = 117) showed a significant association between the SLC2A9 isoform 2 and urate concentrations. The SLC2A9 genotypes also showed significant association with self-reported gout. The proportion of the variance of serum uric acid concentrations explained by genotypes was about 1.2% in men and 6% in women, and the percentage accounted for by expression levels was 3.5% in men and 15% in women.     

A cis-acting regulatory mutation causes premature hair graying and susceptibility to melanoma in the horse

In horses, graying with age is an autosomal dominant trait associated with a high incidence of melanoma and vitiligo-like depigmentation. Here we show that the Gray phenotype is caused by a 4.6-kb duplication in intron 6 of STX17 (syntaxin-17) that constitutes a cis-acting regulatory mutation. Both STX17 and the neighboring NR4A3 gene are overexpressed in melanomas from Gray horses. Gray horses carrying a loss-of-function mutation in ASIP (agouti signaling protein) had a higher incidence of melanoma, implying that increased melanocortin-1 receptor signaling promotes melanoma development in Gray horses. The Gray horse provides a notable example of how humans have cherry-picked mutations with favorable phenotypic effects in domestic animals.