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71.
Ashley (Journal of Forecasting 1983; 2 (3): 211–223) proposes a criterion (known as Ashley's index) to judge whether the external macroeconomic variables are well forecast to serve as explanatory variables in forecasting models, which is crucial for policy makers. In this article, we try to extend Ashley's work by providing three testing procedures, including a ratio‐based test, a difference‐based test, and the Bayesian approach. The Bayesian approach has the advantage of allowing the flexibility of adapting all possible information content within a decision‐making environment such as the change of variable's definition due to the evolving system of national accounts. We demonstrate the proposed methods by applying six macroeconomic forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Researchers or practitioners can thus formally test whether the external information is helpful. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
72.
This paper employed sequential minimal optimization (SMO) to develop default prediction model in the US retail market. Principal components analysis is used for variable reduction purposes. Four standard credit scoring techniques—naïve Bayes, logistic regression, recursive partitioning and artificial neural network—are compared to SMO, using a sample of 195 healthy firms and 51 distressed firms over five time periods between 1994 and 2002. The five techniques perform well in predicting default particularly one year before financial distress. Furthermore, the prediction still remains sound even 5 years before default. No single methodology has the absolute best classification ability, as the model performance varies in terms of different time periods and variable groups. External influences have greater impacts on the naïve Bayes than other techniques. In terms of similarity with Moody's ranking, SMO excelled over other techniques in most of the time periods. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
73.
This paper introduces discrete Euler processes and shows their application in detecting and forecasting cycles in non‐stationary data where periodic behavior changes approximately linearly in time. A discrete Euler process becomes a classical stationary process if ‘time’ is transformed properly. By moving from one time domain to another, one may deform certain time‐varying data to non‐time‐varying data. With these non‐time‐varying data on the deformed timescale, one may use traditional tools to do parameter estimation and forecasts. The obtained results then can be transformed back to the original timescale. For datasets with an underlying discrete Euler process, the sample M‐spectrum and the spectra estimator of a Euler model (i.e., EAR spectral) are used to detect cycles of a Euler process. Beam response and whale data are used to demonstrate the usefulness of a Euler model. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
74.
For analysts there is a tradeoff between the accuracy and the timeliness of their forecasts. Prior literature heavily investigates analyst forecast accuracy. Few papers investigate the importance of timeliness. To our best knowledge, there are no empirical papers to date to investigate the dynamic interplay between these key characteristics. We show that if analysts experience a period of high accuracy relative to their peers, they subsequently focus more on the timeliness of their forecasts in the subsequent period and thus issue their forecasts earlier than they did in the prior period. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
75.
Understory phytomass production in a western juniper ( Juniperus occidentalis ) woodland was examined relative to tree size in central Oregon in 1983 and 1984. Vegetation was sampled in two zones, the canopy zone (beneath the canopy) and the intercanopy zone (the space between canopies), on two adjacent sites—a lower slope site with shallow soil and an upper slope site with deeper soil. Sampling was stratified into three tree size classes. Individual species production was significantly affected by tree size and location relative to tree canopy. Production of bottlebrush squirreltail, bluebunch wheatgrass, cheatgrass, miscellaneous annual grasses, perennial forbs, and annual forbs increased with increasing tree size. Sandberg bluegrass production was greater in the intercanopy than the canopy zone, while production of bottlebrush squirreltail, bluebunch wheatgrass, miscellaneous annual grasses, and both perennial and annual forbs was greater in the canopy zone. Production of cheatgrass was determined by the interaction of tree size and zone. Phytomass relationships were expressed to a greater degree on the upper slope site, where total production exceeded that of the lower slope site by approximately 50% the second year of the study. Individual trees appear to exert a great influence on associated vegetation as western juniper woodlands progress from the seedling (tree establishment) phase to closed stands of mature trees. Original community dominants appear to be spatially segregated beneath tree canopies and associated with large trees, while formerly less common species, such as cheatgrass, come to dominate the entire site. 相似文献
76.
New use of BCG for recombinant vaccines 总被引:147,自引:0,他引:147
C K Stover V F de la Cruz T R Fuerst J E Burlein L A Benson L T Bennett G P Bansal J F Young M H Lee G F Hatfull 《Nature》1991,351(6326):456-460
BCG, a live attenuated tubercle bacillus, is the most widely used vaccine in the world and is also a useful vaccine vehicle for delivering protective antigens of multiple pathogens. Extrachromosomal and integrative expression vectors carrying the regulatory sequences for major BCG heat-shock proteins have been developed to allow expression of foreign antigens in BCG. These recombinant BCG strains can elicit long-lasting humoral and cellular immune responses to foreign antigens in mice. 相似文献
77.
HIV-1 superinfection despite broad CD8+ T-cell responses containing replication of the primary virus 总被引:21,自引:0,他引:21
Altfeld M Allen TM Yu XG Johnston MN Agrawal D Korber BT Montefiori DC O'Connor DH Davis BT Lee PK Maier EL Harlow J Goulder PJ Brander C Rosenberg ES Walker BD 《Nature》2002,420(6914):434-439
Early treatment of acute HIV-1 infection followed by treatment interruptions has shown promise for enhancing immune control of infection. A subsequent loss of control, however, allows the correlates of protective immunity to be assessed. Here we show that sudden breakthrough of plasma viraemia occurred after prolonged immune containment in an individual infected with HIV-1 at a time when 25 distinct CD8+ T-cell epitopes in the viral proteins Gag, RT, Integrase, Env, Nef, Vpr, Vif and Rev were being targeted. Sequencing of the virus in plasma and cells showed that superinfection with a second clade-B virus was coincident with the loss of immune control. This sudden increase in viraemia was associated with a decline in half of the CD8+ T-cell responses. The declining CD8+ T-cell responses were coupled with sequence changes relative to the initial virus that resulted in impaired recognition. Our data show that HIV-1 superinfection can occur in the setting of a strong and broadly directed virus-specific CD8+ T-cell response. The lack of cross-protective immunity for closely related HIV-1 strains, despite persistent recognition of multiple CD8 epitopes, has important implications for public health and vaccine development. 相似文献
78.
Analysis of the mouse transcriptome based on functional annotation of 60,770 full-length cDNAs 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
Okazaki Y Furuno M Kasukawa T Adachi J Bono H Kondo S Nikaido I Osato N Saito R Suzuki H Yamanaka I Kiyosawa H Yagi K Tomaru Y Hasegawa Y Nogami A Schönbach C Gojobori T Baldarelli R Hill DP Bult C Hume DA Quackenbush J Schriml LM Kanapin A Matsuda H Batalov S Beisel KW Blake JA Bradt D Brusic V Chothia C Corbani LE Cousins S Dalla E Dragani TA Fletcher CF Forrest A Frazer KS Gaasterland T Gariboldi M Gissi C Godzik A Gough J Grimmond S Gustincich S Hirokawa N Jackson IJ Jarvis ED Kanai A 《Nature》2002,420(6915):563-573
79.
Sequence and analysis of chromosome 2 of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana 总被引:21,自引:0,他引:21
Lin X Kaul S Rounsley S Shea TP Benito MI Town CD Fujii CY Mason T Bowman CL Barnstead M Feldblyum TV Buell CR Ketchum KA Lee J Ronning CM Koo HL Moffat KS Cronin LA Shen M Pai G Van Aken S Umayam L Tallon LJ Gill JE Adams MD Carrera AJ Creasy TH Goodman HM Somerville CR Copenhaver GP Preuss D Nierman WC White O Eisen JA Salzberg SL Fraser CM Venter JC 《Nature》1999,402(6763):761-768
Arabidopsis thaliana (Arabidopsis) is unique among plant model organisms in having a small genome (130-140 Mb), excellent physical and genetic maps, and little repetitive DNA. Here we report the sequence of chromosome 2 from the Columbia ecotype in two gap-free assemblies (contigs) of 3.6 and 16 megabases (Mb). The latter represents the longest published stretch of uninterrupted DNA sequence assembled from any organism to date. Chromosome 2 represents 15% of the genome and encodes 4,037 genes, 49% of which have no predicted function. Roughly 250 tandem gene duplications were found in addition to large-scale duplications of about 0.5 and 4.5 Mb between chromosomes 2 and 1 and between chromosomes 2 and 4, respectively. Sequencing of nearly 2 Mb within the genetically defined centromere revealed a low density of recognizable genes, and a high density and diverse range of vestigial and presumably inactive mobile elements. More unexpected is what appears to be a recent insertion of a continuous stretch of 75% of the mitochondrial genome into chromosome 2. 相似文献
80.
Zusammenfassung Mit einer Analysenmethode gelingt es, Marijuanarauch von einer Zigarette oder weniger durch Kombination von Anreicherungsverfahren mit hochauflösender Gaschromatographie in Zimmerluft nachzuweisen. Charakteristische Profile von 200 bis 300 Komponenten (darunter Cannabinoide), die sich deutlich von denen von Tabakrauch unterscheiden, wurden mit Hilfe von Glaskapillarsäulen gewonnen. 相似文献