Neural model identification,variable selection and model adequacy

In recent years an impressive array of publications has appeared claiming considerable successes of neural networks in modelling financial data but sceptical practitioners and statisticians are still raising the question of whether neural networks really are ‘a major breakthrough or just a passing fad’. A major reason for this is the lack of procedures for performing tests for misspecified models, and tests of statistical significance for the various parameters that have been estimated, which makes it difficult to assess the model's significance and the possibility that any short‐term successes that are reported might be due to ‘data mining’. In this paper we describe a methodology for neural model identification which facilitates hypothesis testing at two levels: model adequacy and variable significance. The methodology includes a model selection procedure to produce consistent estimators, a variable selection procedure based on statistical significance and a model adequacy procedure based on residuals analysis. We propose a novel, computationally efficient scheme for estimating sampling variability of arbitrarily complex statistics for neural models and apply it to variable selection. The approach is based on sampling from the asymptotic distribution of the neural model's parameters (‘parametric sampling’). Controlled simulations are used for the analysis and evaluation of our model identification methodology. A case study in tactical asset allocation is used to demonstrate how the methodology can be applied to real‐life problems in a way analogous to stepwise forward regression analysis. Neural models are contrasted to multiple linear regression. The results indicate the presence of non‐linear relationships in modelling the equity premium. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An intelligent business forecaster for strategic business planning

In this paper an intelligent business forecaster for strategic business planning is presented. The forecaster is basically a multi‐layered fuzzy rule‐based neural network which integrates the basic elements and functions of a traditional fuzzy logic inference into a neural network structure. It has also been shown to be superior to two commercially available business forecasters in terms of learning speed and forecasting accuracy. This paper presents the architectural design of the intelligent business forecaster and the results of a study that has been carried out to compare its performance with that of the others. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Antiinflammatory and analgesic effect of herbal cocktail Hongbaekjeong via inhibition of proinflammatory cytokines and prostaglandin E2 release

Though Hongbaekjeong(HBJ),a hebal mixture of three medicinal plants,has been traditionally used for arthritis and muscular pain,its scientific evidence still remains unclear.Thus,in the present study,analgesic and anti-inflammatory mechanism of HBJ was evaluated in vitro and in vivo.HBJ significantly reduced NO production and prostaglandin E2(PGE2)release and also attenuated the expression of cyclooxygenase 2(COX-2)in lipopolysaccharides(LPS)and interferon(IFN)-c treated RAW 264.7 cells.Furthermore,HBJ abrogated the production of proinflammatory cytokines such as interleukin(IL)1b,IL-6,IL-8 and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1(MCP-1)in LPS and IFN-c treated RAW 264.7 cells.In addition,HBJ significantly decreased the number of writhing syndrome induced by acetic acid,and also increased latency in hot-plate method and tail flick test in mice.Consistently,HBJ significantly reduced the edema volume in the hind paw of the rats with arthritis induced by Freund’s complete adjuvant(FCA)compared to untreated control.Collectively,our findings demonstrate the antiinflammatory and analgesic potential of HBJ via inhibition of proinflammatory cytokines and PGE2 release for treatment of arthritis and muscular pain.     

Combinational electroporation and transplantation approach to studying gene functions in avian embryos

Gene transfection is an indispensable approach for studying gene function since it provides important information on gain- and/or loss-of-function. Chick embryos are also extensively employed for studying bio- logical function since they are easily accessible and can be maintained alive after manipulation. The combination of both techniques presents a powerful approach to under- standing how genes regulate embryo development. Fur- thermore, combining these approaches with tissue transplant techniques make even more attractive for elu- cidate gene function. Electroporation, employing parallelly fashioned electrodes, has been widely used in chick embryos. However, experimenters have been frustrated by unsuccessfully transfection in some embryonic tissue of interest because the electrodes were improperly positioned.We presently demonstrated the different patterns of orga- nizing and positioning the electrodes, in combination with tissue transplantation, to efficiently and specifically trans- fect the chick embryonic head, trunk neural tube, heart tube, somites and neural crest cells with the GFP reporter gene.     

In fl uence of HEPES buffer on the local pH and formation of surface layer during in vitro degradation tests of magnesium in DMEM

The human body is a buffered environment where p H is effectively maintained. HEPES is a biological buffer often used to mimic the buffering activity of the body in in vitro studies on the degradation behavior of magnesium. However, the influence of HEPES on the degradation behavior of magnesium in the DMEM pseudo-physiological solution has not yet been determined. The research aimed at elucidating the degradation mechanisms of magnesium in DMEM with and without HEPES. The morphologies and compositions of surface layers formed during in vitro degradation tests for 15–3600 s were characterized. The effect of HEPES on the electrochemical behavior and corrosion tendency was determined by performing electrochemical tests. HEPES indeed retained the local p H, leading to intense intergranular/interparticle corrosion of magnesium made from powder and an increased degradation rate. This was attributed to an interconnected network of cracks formed at the original powder particle boundaries and grain boundaries in the surface layer, which provided pathways for the corrosive medium to interact continuously with the internal surfaces and promoted further dissolution. Surface analysis revealed significantly reduced amounts of precipitated calcium phosphates due to the buffering activity of HEPES so that magnesium became less well protected in the buffered environment.     

Fabrication and characterization of 3D scaffold using 3D plotting system

In this paper, we design and fabricate a 3D scaffold using rapid prototyping (RP) technology for tissue engineering. The scaffold should have a three-dimensional interconnected pore network. We fabricate a polycaprolactone (PCL) scaffold with interconnecting pores and uniform porosity for cell ingrowth using a 3D plotting system. In order to keep the three dimensional shape under mechanical loading while implanted, we design an oscillating nozzle system to increase elastic modulus and yield strength of PCL ...     

Dynamics of phytoplankton and picoplankton over a tidal cycle in a subtropical lagoon

The influences of a tidal cycle on the distribution of autotrophic plankton were investigated in a hyper-eutrophic lagoon designated as a scenic area. Results showed that the highest concentrations of picoplankton and phytoplankton were found in the middle and inner part of the lagoon, irrespective of the tides. The MDS result also revealed that phytoplankton communities, dominated by Ceratium furca, were similar among stations in the inner bay during both flood tides and ebb tides. The time series sampling results at the inlet-outlet channel revealed that almost the same amounts of phytoplankton and picoplankton were carried through the channel during flood and ebb tides, with no trend in nutrient fluctuations except for phosphate which had a net loss from the lagoon. The results showed that tidal cycles do not effectively flush away phytoplankton and picoplankton from the lagoon, and the blooming of phyto- and picoplankton is inevitable should the situation stay the same. Steps are needed to alleviate the eutrophication condition instead of depending on the natural process such as tidal cycle.     

利用杀菌剂防治松萎蔫病

松萎蔫病是一种非常复杂的病害。据报道,松材线虫(Bursaphelenchus xylophilus)及其携带的细菌诱导了该病,但是对于细菌的的作用尚存争议。笔者筛选出杀细菌剂进行了温室和林间防治松萎蔫病的实验。利用每株3年生赤松(Pinus densiflora)注射3 mg的恶喹酸,松萎蔫病防效达到71 %。利用恶喹酸或阿维菌素及两者混合物对大约20年生赤松的试验表明,3种处理均显示了很高的防效。以上结果证明伴生细菌是诱导松萎蔫病的必要因素,对松萎蔫病可利用杀细菌剂或杀细菌剂与杀线剂混合物进行防控。     

Subtypes of medulloblastoma have distinct developmental origins

Medulloblastoma encompasses a collection of clinically and molecularly diverse tumour subtypes that together comprise the most common malignant childhood brain tumour. These tumours are thought to arise within the cerebellum, with approximately 25% originating from granule neuron precursor cells (GNPCs) after aberrant activation of the Sonic Hedgehog pathway (hereafter, SHH subtype). The pathological processes that drive heterogeneity among the other medulloblastoma subtypes are not known, hindering the development of much needed new therapies. Here we provide evidence that a discrete subtype of medulloblastoma that contains activating mutations in the WNT pathway effector CTNNB1 (hereafter, WNT subtype) arises outside the cerebellum from cells of the dorsal brainstem. We found that genes marking human WNT-subtype medulloblastomas are more frequently expressed in the lower rhombic lip (LRL) and embryonic dorsal brainstem than in the upper rhombic lip (URL) and developing cerebellum. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and intra-operative reports showed that human WNT-subtype tumours infiltrate the dorsal brainstem, whereas SHH-subtype tumours are located within the cerebellar hemispheres. Activating mutations in Ctnnb1 had little impact on progenitor cell populations in the cerebellum, but caused the abnormal accumulation of cells on the embryonic dorsal brainstem which included aberrantly proliferating Zic1(+) precursor cells. These lesions persisted in all mutant adult mice; moreover, in 15% of cases in which Tp53 was concurrently deleted, they progressed to form medulloblastomas that recapitulated the anatomy and gene expression profiles of human WNT-subtype medulloblastoma. We provide the first evidence, to our knowledge, that subtypes of medulloblastoma have distinct cellular origins. Our data provide an explanation for the marked molecular and clinical differences between SHH- and WNT-subtype medulloblastomas and have profound implications for future research and treatment of this important childhood cancer.