Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market

In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

DETERMINATION OF KRAFT LIGNIN CONCENTRATIONS BY FTIR

A fast and accurate method based on FTIR is developed for determining the lignin content and its characteristic bands in alkali solutions. The work consisted of two main parts: 1) establishing a predictive model and 2) determination of the accuracy of the model. The model was derived by applying the partial least squares algorithm for multivariate analyses to a set of spectrum data obtained from selected IR absorption regions in the range of 1600 - 900 cm-1. The model was tested with spent liquors obtained from commercial pulp mills.The accuracy of the predictive model is extremely high suitable for commercial applications,particularly for monitoring the dynamic response of modern kraft pulping processes.     

Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

甲醇催化脱氢制甲酸甲酯反应中Cu－ZnO－ZrO_2／SiO_2催化剂的特性

Ｃｕ－ＺｎＯ－ＺｒＯ２／ＳｉＯ２催化剂对甲醇催化脱氢制甲酸甲酯的反应具有良好的活性和选择性．应用连续微反、差示热分析、Ｘ射线衍射、程序升温还原、Ｘ射线光电子能谱分析和红外光谱等技术，对该催化剂的活性中心本质、ＺｎＯ及ＺｒＯ２的助催化作用、可能的反应机理以及催化剂的失活原因进行了探讨．     

Exponential smoothing: Behavior of the ex-post sum of squares near 0 and 1

When using simple exponential smoothing on a given time series the nature of the relationship between the optimal smoothing constant and the autocorrelation structure of the series remains an unresolved question. Although numerical search routines can easily be used to find optimal values of the smoothing constant, they offer little insight into the nature of the relationship between the estimated smoothing constant and the structure of the underlying time series. We suggest that renewed investigations of the ex-post sum of squares function may prove helpful in this pursuit. Results are presented that illustrate how the optimal smoothing constant depends upon the value used to initialize the smoothing and upon the sample autocorrelation coefficients of the observed series. These results are based on a new formula for the derivative of the ex-post sum of squares function. In particular, the derivative is examined near 0 and 1, where great simplifications occur in its form, thereby facilitating investigations near these points. A necessary and sufficient condition is stated for when the ex-post sum of squares must have a positive derivative at 0 and the autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series are shown to affect the sign of the derivative near 1. Based on these results, a general algorithm is presented as an alternative to grid search routines for minimizing the ex-post sum of squares.     

Effect of volatile anesthetics on the circular dichroism of bilirubin bound to human serum albumin

The characteristic circular dichroism of bilirubin bound to human serum albumin undergoes a remarkable sign inversion on addition of halothane, chloroform and other volatile anesthetics. This sign inversion, which is completely reversed by removal of the anesthetic, reflects a pronounced conformational change of the bound ligand; probably a complete inversion of chirality. The observation suggests that association of volatile anesthetics with proteins can markedly alter the internal topography of receptor sites and potentially influence the stereoselectivity of ligand binding.     

负反馈电桥在电阻传感器线性化中的应用

本文介绍利用信号流图及梅森公式分析设计负反馈电桥电路,以及在电阻传感器测量线性化中的应用。     

Estimation and testing of time-varying coefficient regression models in the presence of linear restrictions

A linear regression model with random walk coefficients is extended to allow for linear restrictions between the coefficients to be satisfied at each point in time. Estimation in this model is shown to be no more involved than estimation in the standard model. It is also demonstrated how, after a slight modification to the testing problem, classical test procedures may be applied to the problem of testing for such restrictions. The performance of the Lagrange Multiplier test for a variety of different restrictions is then investigated via simulation. An empirical application involving testing for homogeneity in a random walk coefficient version of the AIDS model is given.     

磁光光盘动态性能的研究

该文报道了所研制的具有AIN/TbFeCo/AIN/AI四层结构磁光光盘的动态性能测试结果.当记录信息位尺寸为1μm时,信息读出载噪比大于45dB,载噪比随盘片径向位置而异.文中根据测试结果,讨论了影响载噪比的诸因素.