The role of macroeconometric models in forecasting and policy analysis in the united states

This article stresses how little is known about the quality, particularly the relative quality, of macroeconometric models. Most economists make a strict distinction between the quality of a model per se and the accuracy of solutions based on that model. While this distinction is valid, it leaves unanswered how to compare the‘validity’of conditional models. The standard test, the accuracy of ex post simulations, is not definitive when models with differing degrees of exogeneity are compared. In addition, it is extremely difficult to estimate the relative quantitative importance of conceptual problems of models, such as parameter instability across‘policy regimes’ In light of the difficulty in comparisons of conditional macroeconometric models, many model-builders and users assume that the best models are those that have been used to make the most accurate forecasts are those made with the best models. Forecasting experience indicates that forecasters using macroeconometric models have produced more accurate macroeconomic forecasts than either naive or sophisticated unconditional statistical models. It also suggests that judgementally adjusted forecasts have been more accurate than model-based forecasts generated mechanically. The influence of econometrically-based forecasts is now so pervasive that it is difficult to find examples of‘purely judgemental’forecasts.     

The binary progenitor of Tycho Brahe's 1572 supernova

The brightness of type Ia supernovae, and their homogeneity as a class, makes them powerful tools in cosmology, yet little is known about the progenitor systems of these explosions. They are thought to arise when a white dwarf accretes matter from a companion star, is compressed and undergoes a thermonuclear explosion. Unless the companion star is another white dwarf (in which case it should be destroyed by the mass-transfer process itself), it should survive and show distinguishing properties. Tycho's supernova is one of only two type Ia supernovae observed in our Galaxy, and so provides an opportunity to address observationally the identification of the surviving companion. Here we report a survey of the central region of its remnant, around the position of the explosion, which excludes red giants as the mass donor of the exploding white dwarf. We found a type G0-G2 star, similar to our Sun in surface temperature and luminosity (but lower surface gravity), moving at more than three times the mean velocity of the stars at that distance, which appears to be the surviving companion of the supernova.     

Nitrification by plants that also fix nitrogen

Nitrification is a key stage in the nitrogen cycle; it enables the transformation of nitrogen into an oxidized, inorganic state. The availability of nitrates produced by this process often limits primary productivity and is an important determinant in plant community ecology and biodiversity. Chemoautotrophic prokaryotes are recognized as the main facilitators of this process, although heterotrophic nitrification by fungi may be significant under certain conditions. However, there has been neither biochemical nor ecological evidence to support nitrification by photoautotrophic plants. Here we show how certain legumes that accumulate the toxin, 3-nitropropionic acid, generate oxidized inorganic nitrogen in their shoots, which is returned to the soil in their litter. In nitrogen-fixing populations this 'new' nitrate and nitrite can be derived from the assimilation of nitrogen gas. Normally, the transformation of elemental nitrogen from the atmosphere into a fixed oxidized form (as nitrate) is represented in the nitrogen cycle as a multiphasic process involving several different organisms. We show how this can occur in a single photoautotrophic organism, representing a previously undescribed feature of this biogeochemical cycle.     

Insights into assembly from structural analysis of bacteriophage PRD1

The structure of the membrane-containing bacteriophage PRD1 has been determined by X-ray crystallography at about 4 A resolution. Here we describe the structure and location of proteins P3, P16, P30 and P31. Different structural proteins seem to have specialist roles in controlling virus assembly. The linearly extended P30 appears to nucleate the formation of the icosahedral facets (composed of trimers of the major capsid protein, P3) and acts as a molecular tape-measure, defining the size of the virus and cementing the facets together. Pentamers of P31 form the vertex base, interlocking with subunits of P3 and interacting with the membrane protein P16. The architectural similarities with adenovirus and one of the largest known virus particles PBCV-1 support the notion that the mechanism of assembly of PRD1 is scaleable and applies across the major viral lineage formed by these viruses.     

Mutations in the gene encoding filamin B disrupt vertebral segmentation, joint formation and skeletogenesis

The filamins are cytoplasmic proteins that regulate the structure and activity of the cytoskeleton by cross-linking actin into three-dimensional networks, linking the cell membrane to the cytoskeleton and serving as scaffolds on which intracellular signaling and protein trafficking pathways are organized (reviewed in refs. 1,2). We identified mutations in the gene encoding filamin B in four human skeletal disorders. We found homozygosity or compound heterozygosity with respect to stop-codon mutations in autosomal recessive spondylocarpotarsal syndrome (SCT, OMIM 272460) and missense mutations in individuals with autosomal dominant Larsen syndrome (OMIM 150250) and the perinatal lethal atelosteogenesis I and III phenotypes (AOI, OMIM 108720; AOIII, OMIM 108721). We found that filamin B is expressed in human growth plate chondrocytes and in the developing vertebral bodies in the mouse. These data indicate an unexpected role in vertebral segmentation, joint formation and endochondral ossification for this ubiquitously expressed cytoskeletal protein.     

A complementary transposon tool kit for Drosophila melanogaster using P and piggyBac

With the availability of complete genome sequence for Drosophila melanogaster, one of the next strategic goals for fly researchers is a complete gene knockout collection. The P-element transposon, the workhorse of D. melanogaster molecular genetics, has a pronounced nonrandom insertion spectrum. It has been estimated that 87% saturation of the approximately 13,500-gene complement of D. melanogaster might require generating and analyzing up to 150,000 insertions. We describe specific improvements to the lepidopteran transposon piggyBac and the P element that enabled us to tag and disrupt genes in D. melanogaster more efficiently. We generated over 29,000 inserts resulting in 53% gene saturation and a more diverse collection of phenotypically stronger insertional alleles. We found that piggyBac has distinct global and local gene-tagging behavior from that of P elements. Notably, piggyBac excisions from the germ line are nearly always precise, piggyBac does not share chromosomal hotspots associated with P and piggyBac is more effective at gene disruption because it lacks the P bias for insertion in 5' regulatory sequences.     

Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices

A doubling in global food demand projected for the next 50 years poses huge challenges for the sustainability both of food production and of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and the services they provide to society. Agriculturalists are the principal managers of global usable lands and will shape, perhaps irreversibly, the surface of the Earth in the coming decades. New incentives and policies for ensuring the sustainability of agriculture and ecosystem services will be crucial if we are to meet the demands of improving yields without compromising environmental integrity or public health.     

Urocortin-deficient mice show hearing impairment and increased anxiety-like behavior

Urocortin is a member of the corticotropin-releasing hormone peptide family and is found in many discrete brain regions. The distinct expression pattern of urocortin suggests that it influences such behaviors as feeding, anxiety and auditory processing. To better define the physiological roles of urocortin, we have generated mice carrying a null mutation of the urocortin gene. Urocortin-deficient mice have normal basal feeding behavior and stress responses, but show heightened anxiety-like behaviors in the elevated plus maze and open-field tests. In addition, hearing is impaired in the mutant mice at the level of the inner ear, suggesting that urocortin is involved in the normal development of cochlear sensory-cell function. These results provide the first example of a function for any peptidergic system in hearing.