Combination of forecasts in electricity demand prediction

Accurate demand prediction is of great importance in the electricity supply industry. Electricity cannot be stored, and generating plant must be scheduled well in advance to meet future demand. Up to now, where online information about external conditions is unavailable, time series methods on the historical demand series have been used for short-term demand prediction. These have drawbacks, both in their sensitivity to changing weather conditions and in their poor modelling of the daily/weekly business cycles. To overcome these problems a framework has been constructed whereby forecasts from different prediction methods and different forecasting origins can be selected and combined, solely on the basis of recent forecasting performance, with no a priori assumptions of demand behaviour. This added flexibility in univariate forecasting provides a significant improvement in prediction accuracy.     

Corticotropin releasing factor induction of leukocyte-derived immunoreactive ACTH and endorphins

Human peripheral leukocytes infected by virus or treated with endotoxin will, like unstimulated mouse spleen macrophages, synthesize immunoreactive corticotrophin (ir-ACTH) and endorphins. The ir-ACTH produced appears to be identical with authentic ACTH, while enough of the material has been produced in hypophysectomized mice infected with virus to demonstrate a steroidogenic response. Because the production of ACTH by in vivo pituitary cells and by leukocytes is suppressed by dexamethasone both in vitro and in vitro, suggesting that the production of ACTH and endorphins by leukocytes is indeed controlled, we have investigated the effects of corticotropin releasing-factor (CRF), which is known to regulate the pituitary production of both ACTH and beta-endorphin. We now report that the production of ACTH and endorphins by leukocytes is indeed induced by synthetic CRF and, in turn, suppressed by dexamethasone, suggesting that, as in pituitary cells, the proopiomelanocortin (POMC) gene may be expressed and similarly controlled in leukocytes.     

Earthquake monitoring in australia using satellite radar interferometry

Are there any earthquakes in Australia? Although most Australians are not as familiar with earthquakes as citizens in countries such as Japan, there are some quakes on the Australian continent every year. Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) has been widely used in recent years for monitoring crustal deformation due to earthquakes, volcanoes, underground mining, oil extraction, and so on. Hence the follow-on question is, can repeat-pass satellite DInSAR be used in Australian regions to monitor earthquakes? Nine ERS-1 and ERS-2 radar images of the Burakin region in Western Australia were used to form the InSAR pairs. Twenty-two InSAR pairs were formed and were used to study the temporal decorrelation characteristics in the Burakin area. It was found that good coherence could be maintained all over the full scene for a pair spanning 211 d. The repeat cycles of RADARSAT and ERS (all C-band SAR missions) are 24 and 35 d respectively, Furthermore it is easier to maintain good coherence in L-band SAR images (e.g. the JERS-1 mission has a 44 d repeat cycle). Therefore the authors are confident that repeat-pass differential InSAR can be used to monitor ground deformation due to earthquakes in the Burakin region.     

Polymorphisms in mitochondrial DNA of European and Africanized honeybees (Apis mellifera)

This study demonstrates polymorphisms in both the length and in the restriction enzyme cleavage sites of honeybee mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). The levels of variation are typical of those found in other metazoan species. These polymorphisms are potentially useful for the identification of Africanized bees in the western hemisphere and for study of honeybee phylogenetics.