Information content of DSGE forecasts

This paper examines the question whether information is contained in forecasts from dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models beyond that contained in lagged values, which are extensively used in the models. Four sets of forecasts are examined. The results are encouraging for DSGE forecasts of real GDP. The results suggest that there is information in the DSGE forecasts not contained in forecasts based only on lagged values, and that there is no information in the lagged‐value forecasts not contained in the DSGE forecasts. The opposite is true for forecasts of the GDP deflator.     

Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability

This paper estimates, using stochastic simulation and a multi‐country macroeconometric model, the fraction of the forecast error variance of output changes and the fraction of the forecast error variance of inflation that are due to unpredictable asset price changes. The results suggest that between about 25% and 37% of the forecast error variance of output growth over eight quarters is due to asset price changes and between about 33% and 60% of the forecast error variance of inflation over eight quarters is due to asset price changes. These estimates provide limits to the accuracy that can be expected from macroeconomic forecasting. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Altered DNA ligase I activity in Bloom's syndrome cells

Cells from patients with Bloom's syndrome, a rare disease associated with increased cancer frequency, exhibit cytological abnormalities. These include increased numbers of homologous chromatid interchange figures and sister-chromatid exchanges, together with abnormally slow replicon-fork progression and retarded rate of DNA-chain maturation, and suggest that the primary defect in this recessive disorder affects S-phase DNA replication. DNA ligases and DNA polymerases have long been prime candidates for abnormality in Bloom's syndrome, but various studies of DNA polymerases in Bloom's syndrome cells have disclosed no abnormalities. Evidence is presented here, as in the accompanying paper from a different laboratory, for the existence in Bloom's syndrome of an abnormality of the DNA ligase involved in semi-conservative DNA replication.     

Identity of RW-47 and venoterpine and determination of their absolute configuration

Zusammenfassung RW-47 und Venoterpin sind identisch. Die absolute Konfiguration ist durch ORD-CD, Vergleiche mitl-(–)-actinidin ableitbar.     

Purification and immobilization of human carbonic anhydrase B by using polyacrylamide gel.

Human erythrocyte carbonic anhydrase B was purified and immobilized in polyacrylamide gel. As compared to the soluble enzyme, the immobilized enzyme was considerably more resistant to heat and sulphanilamide action.     

Homozygous mutation of AURKC yields large-headed polyploid spermatozoa and causes male infertility

The World Health Organization conservatively estimates that 80 million people suffer from infertility worldwide. Male factors are believed to be responsible for 20-50% of all infertility cases, but microdeletions of the Y chromosome are the only genetic defects altering human spermatogenesis that have been reported repeatedly. We focused our work on infertile men with a normal somatic karyotype but typical spermatozoa mainly characterized by large heads, a variable number of tails and an increased chromosomal content (OMIM 243060). We performed a genome-wide microsatellite scan on ten infertile men presenting this characteristic phenotype. In all of these men, we identified a common region of homozygosity harboring the aurora kinase C gene (AURKC) with a single nucleotide deletion in the AURKC coding sequence. In addition, we show that this founder mutation results in premature termination of translation, yielding a truncated protein that lacks the kinase domain. We conclude that the absence of AURKC causes male infertility owing to the production of large-headed multiflagellar polyploid spermatozoa.     

Book Reviews

Systemic Practice and Action Research -