A BVAR model for the connecticut economy

A Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model is developed for the Connecticut economy to forecast the unemployment rate, nonagricultural employment, real personal income, and housing permits authorized. The model includes both national and state variables. The Bayesian prior is selected on the basis of the accuracy of the out-of-sample forecasts. We find that a loose prior generally produces more accurate forecasts. The out-of-sample accuracy of the BVAR forecasts is also compared with that of forecasts from an unrestricted VAR model and of benchmark forecasts generated from univariate ARIMA models. The BVAR model generally produces the most accurate short- and long-term out-of-sample forecasts for 1988 through 1992. It also correctly predicts the direction of change.     

Inhibition of sensitized leukocyte's in vitro reactivity by circulating immune complexes in prostate cancer

Circulating immune complexes in the sera of patients with confirmed histological diagnosis of carcinoma of the prostate, were found to interfere in the sensitized leukocyte's in vitro reactivity to prostate cancer associated antigen as evaluated by tube leukocyte adherence inhibition assay, thereby suggesting an inhibitory role of such serum factors in host's anti tumor cell mediated immune responses.     

The amniote primitive streak is defined by epithelial cell intercalation before gastrulation

During gastrulation, a single epithelial cell layer, the ectoderm, generates two others: the mesoderm and the endoderm. In amniotes (birds and mammals), mesendoderm formation occurs through an axial midline structure, the primitive streak, the formation of which is preceded by massive 'polonaise' movements of ectoderm cells. The mechanisms controlling these processes are unknown. Here, using multi-photon time-lapse microscopy of chick (Gallus gallus) embryos, we reveal a medio-lateral cell intercalation confined to the ectodermal subdomain where the streak will later form. This intercalation event differs from the convergent extension movements of the mesoderm described in fish and amphibians (anamniotes): it occurs before gastrulation and within a tight columnar epithelium. Fibroblast growth factor from the extraembryonic endoderm (hypoblast, a cell layer unique to amniotes) directs the expression of Wnt planar-cell-polarity pathway components to the intercalation domain. Disruption of this Wnt pathway causes the mesendoderm to form peripherally, as in anamniotes. We propose that the amniote primitive streak evolved from the ancestral blastopore by acquisition of an additional medio-lateral intercalation event, preceding gastrulation and acting independently of mesendoderm formation to position the primitive streak at the midline.     

污泥龄对活性污泥处理微量磺胺类药物的影响

为了研究污泥龄对活性污泥系统处理微量磺胺类药物（5 μg/L）的影响,共运行了4个试验室规模（3L）的序批式活性污泥反应器（SBR）,其污泥龄分别为2、8、14、20 d。批次摇瓶试验通过设置3个工况（正常运行,加入生物抑制剂,无微生物）来讨论在1个运行周期（8 h）中对浓度惟5 μg/L磺胺甲恶唑的吸附作用、生物降解作用和挥发损失。试验结果显示对磺胺甲恶唑的总去除量为2.14 ± 0.60 μg/g SS,吸附作用占总去除量的63%;磺胺嘧啶为1.14 ± 0.63 μg/g SS,83%;磺胺间二甲氧为2.33± 0.67 μg/g SS, 35%;磺胺甲基嘧啶为2.45 ± 0.85 μg/g SS,55%;磺胺类药物的去除效果与污泥的污泥龄有着非常显著的关系（p<0.02）。通过运行加入磺胺甲恶唑（进水5 μg/L)的反应器60 d,4个反应器对磺胺甲恶唑的平均去除率分别为10%、41%、51%、58%,处理效果随着污泥龄的增加而变好,同时单位污泥去除率随着污泥龄的增加而降低,SRT=2 d的反应器由于存在大量的丝状菌,使得单位污泥对磺胺甲恶唑去除率大大高于其他3个反应器。通过分子生物学分析,发现微生物群落结构的变化不大,从而说明了影响磺胺类药物处理效果的主要因素在于更强的吸附能力,更高的污泥浓度。     

Effects of anisotropy on time-depth relation in transversely isotropic medium with a vertical axis of symmetry

It is known that rock anisotropy can significantly influence the phase and energy velocities of an elastic wave, as well as its re-flection/transmission (R/T) coefficients. As a result, it can distort the velocity analysis of seismic-reflection data. In this work we present a velocity analysis for seismic-reflection data based on the available anisotropic rock parameters. We analyzed the created errors on time-depth relation of the seismic-reflection data in neglecting rock anisotropy and/or neglecting the difference between energy velocity and phase velocity, including the case of wide-angle reflection. The calculated results show that the effect of rock anisotropy on time-depth relation of seismic-reflection data is dependent not only on the values of anisotropic parameters, but also on the space arrangement of both source and receiver-array. For all studied cases (weak, moderate or strong anisotropy), we found that the effect of rock anisotropy on time-depth relation could not be neglected. Nevertheless, for the case of weak anisotropy, the energy velocity may be replaceable by the phase velocity to obtain a very good approximation on time-depth relation. Consequently, the seismic-reflection data processing algorithm for numerical computations can be simplified.     

Philosophical Differences: The Case of Architects' Reluctance to Use Strategic Planning Software

A briefing workshop was run in an effort to involve its participants in choosing a strategic direction, and eventual form, for a proposed facility. The workshop was an action research, participative process that sought to improve final design by preconsultation with some relevant stakeholders. This paper will specifically focus on our attempt to use strategic planning software at an early stage of such a workshop. It discusses and illustrates the difficulties of importing a new technique into an established, professional setting where activities and roles may be expressed, or assumed, on the basis of previous experience. More exactly, although we hoped to use our software to analyze and explore participants' design styles, and so predict their likely choice of design option, the architects present undermined such analyzes by playing a role rather than telling the software what they really thought about the various strategic choices. Hence it was, in some ways, a waste of time using our software. We speculate below whether such undermining might be symptomatic of deep philosophical differences between the workshop organizers, planners, and architects. We also examine whether such differences bode ill for the future of architecture.     

The draft genome of the transgenic tropical fruit tree papaya (Carica papaya Linnaeus)

Papaya, a fruit crop cultivated in tropical and subtropical regions, is known for its nutritional benefits and medicinal applications. Here we report a 3x draft genome sequence of 'SunUp' papaya, the first commercial virus-resistant transgenic fruit tree to be sequenced. The papaya genome is three times the size of the Arabidopsis genome, but contains fewer genes, including significantly fewer disease-resistance gene analogues. Comparison of the five sequenced genomes suggests a minimal angiosperm gene set of 13,311. A lack of recent genome duplication, atypical of other angiosperm genomes sequenced so far, may account for the smaller papaya gene number in most functional groups. Nonetheless, striking amplifications in gene number within particular functional groups suggest roles in the evolution of tree-like habit, deposition and remobilization of starch reserves, attraction of seed dispersal agents, and adaptation to tropical daylengths. Transgenesis at three locations is closely associated with chloroplast insertions into the nuclear genome, and with topoisomerase I recognition sites. Papaya offers numerous advantages as a system for fruit-tree functional genomics, and this draft genome sequence provides the foundation for revealing the basis of Carica's distinguishing morpho-physiological, medicinal and nutritional properties.     

A powerful bursting radio source towards the Galactic Centre

Transient astronomical sources are typically powered by compact objects and usually signify highly explosive or dynamic events. Although high-time-resolution observations are often possible in radio astronomy, they are usually limited to quite narrow fields of view. The dynamic radio sky is therefore poorly sampled, in contrast to the situation in the X-ray and gamma-ray bands in which wide-field instruments routinely detect transient sources. Here we report a transient radio source, GCRT J1745-3009, which was detected during a moderately wide-field monitoring programme of the Galactic Centre region at 0.33 GHz. The characteristics of its bursts are unlike those known for any other class of radio transient. If located in or near the Galactic Centre, its brightness temperature (approximately 10(16) K) and the implied energy density within GCRT J1745-3009 vastly exceed those observed in most other classes of radio astronomical sources, and are consistent with coherent emission processes that are rarely observed. We conclude that it represents a hitherto unknown class of transient radio sources, the first of possibly many new classes that may be discovered by emerging wide-field radio telescopes.