Global Optimization in Any Minkowski Metric: A Permutation-Translation Simulated Annealing Algorithm for Multidimensional Scaling

It is well known that considering a non-Euclidean Minkowski metric in Multidimensional Scaling, either for the distance model or for the loss function, increases the computational problem of local minima considerably. In this paper, we propose an algorithm in which both the loss function and the composition rule can be considered in any Minkowski metric, using a multivariate randomly alternating Simulated Annealing procedure with permutation and translation phases. The algorithm has been implemented in Fortran and tested over classical and simulated data matrices with sizes up to 200 objects. A study has been carried out with some of the common loss functions to determine the most suitable values for the main parameters. The experimental results confirm the theoretical expectation that Simulated Annealing is a suitable strategy to deal by itself with the optimization problems in Multidimensional Scaling, in particular for City-Block, Euclidean and Infinity metrics.     

Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Die bakteriostatische Wirkung von Chalkon,Flavanon, Flavon und Flavonol

Summary Chalcone, flavanone, flavone, and its derivatives had a certain bacteriostatic effect onSt. aureus. Flavonol has no activity and morin, a derivative of flavonol, showed only a weak inhibition of the bacterial growth.Cystein did not have any antagonistic effect.Extracts of drugs, which contain natural flavanones, flavones, isoflavones and flavonols, are more or less bacteriostatic.